Price is once again missing from Slate Sleuth this week. WebGuyJosh back to give you much less impressive insight. We almost had him back, but a combination of Disney and gravity changed the course of action. Prayers up for Price. He didn’t die or anything, he just lost his phone on a roller coaster.
Once again we are working with a full 13 fight slate for this amazing event in London. Having this many fights make being right that much more important. Unfortunately last week’s article missed on the Musasa play and the Judice fade, so here is to hoping we can avoid those missteps this time around.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Vegas 103 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
CHRISTIAN LEROY DUNCAN | $9600 | -550 | 38%
CLD is the most favored fighter on the card this week, and is projected to be the second highest owned on the slate as well. Christian Leroy Duncan is capable of getting finishes and the round line agrees at 1.5 rounds. Duncan should be a staple of your builds this week for low risk contests and very useful in larger tournaments as well if he performs to his capabilities.
CARLOS ULBERG | $9000 | -300 | 37%
This one is a bit polarizing. There are plenty of people who are not exactly a believer in City Kickboxing at this point, and also carry a bit of love for Polish Power as well. It is not inaccurate to say that Jan Blachowitcz is the more well rounded fighter, but he is so slow, and Ulberg is so fast and powerful. This could be the one where Jan starts to see the bottom, and at this ownership it is fairly safe to chase that outcome.
SEAN BRADY | $8600 | -155 | 47%
The consensus most popular play on the slate and it makes sense. If Brady gets this win it should look similar to the Edwards and Belal fight in that there are plenty of takedowns and control time…maybe even a sub for the high level grappler. The one concern I have would be if Brady has the striking to get in on Edward’s hips the way Belal managed to do, but in the event it does happen with this ownership you will have to be somewhat heavy on Brady.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
ALEXIA THAINARA | $8900 | -240 | 23%
This slate feels like we are going to have to throw darts at those fighters with low ownership whose win conditions come with plenty of wrestling or grappling. That’s what we have here. If this fight stays on the feet it’s a dud for everyone. If Alexia Thainara can get it to the mat however, which has historically been easy for anyone to do with Molly McCann, the scoring could get pretty interesting.
GUNNAR NELSON | $8500 | -114 | 25%
I think when it comes to making a straight pick I am on the other side of this one. When it comes to finding some leverage on the DraftKings slate ‘if’ the fighter wins, Gunnar Nelson might make some things happen in a win. I don’t think he will be able to find a sub on Holland, but if the fight goes his way it would almost surely need to be on the ground pretty frequently.
NATHAN FLETCHER | $8400 | -139 | 20%
This is such a close fight, and it feels rough picking a side, but there is only one side I really love for DraftKings. If Fletcher gets the win here it would likely be through plenty of ground control time and potentially a submission finish. The fight itself is a coin flip, but we have plenty of tournament leverage with Fletcher’s win condition.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
MICK PARKIN | $8000 | -147 | 22%
This is strictly a play on the betting line. We would be getting the betting favorite at the underdog price. The unfortunate aspect of this play is that Parkin is notoriously low volume and this could become a sloppy, low paced, heavyweight slug fight (shoutout Angelo!). If that is the case Parkin might not score great, and that would be concerning, but I think Parkin would be an alright play to have tournament exposure in for larger contests. If it ends inside the distance it would be an outstanding outcome at this price tag.
NATHANIEL WOOD | $7500 | +115 | 21%
Being on the Nathaniel Wood side of this fight seems unpopular. Personally I am so confused why everyone is so heavily on Charriere. He is largely untested in the UFC and the guys he did get wins over were very easy to finish fighters. I think Wood is by far the more well rounded fighter and at this salary just winning with decent volume would likely be optimal.
CHRIS DUNCAN | $6900 | +320 | 17%
Duncan has a few things going for him that I love this week. For starters, he is fighting a young aggressive fighter that many people really love this week. To build on that he keeps a really solid pace from start to finish and generally will mix in some wrestling or cage control. I think this fight is much closer than the betting line indicates and I think the more impressive score in a win will come from Duncan.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
GURAM KUTATELADZE | $9400 | -450 | 16%
Guram just doesn’t score well. Is there a world where he can come in and get a finish as a -450 favorite, definitely. When playing DraftKings DFS however you want to play probabilities, and the probability of that happening is pretty low based on previous performances and historical scoring.
SHAUNA BANNON | $8800 | -170 | 8%
Honestly this whole fight is terrible for DFS. I do see some value in Puja Tomar as a low cost dog that likely won’t be finished, but Bannon at $8,800 is near unplayable in my opinion. Of course I thought that about Judice last week and she went out and rolled. I don’t think Bannon will though, and would play it this way every single time.
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