We have 14 fights scheduled for UFC Fight Night Kansas City, with a banger headlining it with Ian Machado Garry against the rising star from the fighting nerds Carlos Prates. We only have a couple of outrageous lines luckily, so there should be some good close fights along with some finishes inside the distance considering who is on the card from top to bottom
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Kansas City slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Ikram Aliskerov | $9700 | -550 | 32%
He stepped up his last fight and went from a headliner at the Apex to a short notice main event against Robert Whitaker in the middle east. He got KO’d, but he took plenty of time off and was coming off 3 first round stoppages of his own. Lands 3.5X the amount of significant strikes per minute than Muniz and has grappling to rely on if the exchanges on the feet are not working out.
Randy Brown | $8900 | -250 | 18%
They are fairly evenly matched when looking at the metrics, but I think it’s fairly clear that Brown is a better overall fighter across the board. He has 4 inch reach advantage, Dalby is now 40, and Brown will keep it on the feet with his take down defense so look for Rude Boy to out point him on the feet and try to find a finish.
Da’Mon Blackshear| $9300 | -460 | 25%
Blackshear is going to drag him to the mat and find a submission. He is bigger, stronger, 6 inch reach and gangs and has a big grappling advantage.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Matt Schnell | $9200 | -175 | 20%
Flick stinks, Schnell by KO/TKO is the pick but if he doesn’t do it early it will be hard for him to pay off the salary. Combined they are 3-7 in their last 5 fights a piece so it will be a shit show but Schnell should pull it out.
David Onama | $8800 | -170 | 19%
Giga is a straight kickboxing son of a gun, whereas Onama has the chops to take someone down and will shoot for them. He only averages .75 takedowns per fight, but he also outpaces Giga on the feet with 5.6 significant strikes per minute and has looked better during their last few fights in the UFC and is 6 years younger.
Michel Pereira | $8600 | -139 | 23%
I think everyone saw the game plan to beat Pereira that Fluffy implemented last time out, I just don’t think Abus can do that without gassing himself. Questionable gas tanks on both these guys, but Michel is so much more dangerous on the feet. He has the power, he has the speed, and he can choke you out from any position if he gets a hold of you. It will be a close fight and I’m going to have both guys spread in lineups as this fight is favored to finish inside the distance.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Cameron Saaiman | $7800 | +105 | 23%
Saaiman was an up and coming prospect until about 18 months ago and now has lost two in a row. This seems like the UFC is testing out the bounce back ability against a guy in Wellmaker who is a undefeated prospect making his debut. He has averaged almost 112 DK points in his wins, so if he pulls it off in that fashion and wilts the newcomer, it should be a big boy score.
Abus Magomedov | $7600 | +119 | 27%
He will look to have a very heavy grappling approach and try to emulate what fluffy did, I don’t know if he has the gas tank for that but if he can get Michel down and rack up points and control time he can score well as an underdog.
Gauge Young| $7100 | +168 | 24%
This is more an indictment on Elder not being worth the price tag. Gauge is not a great fighter but has talent and is going and hungry taking this on short notice. He’s going to shoot takedowns and if he can get Elder down can steal a couple rounds.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Evan Elder | $9400 | -193 | 13%
Has a putrid 33% takedown defense, and needs a finish in the first two rounds to pay off his salary. I would rather spend up elsewhere considering who’s around him.
Roberto Romero | 8300 | -135 | 21%
The guys priced around Romero make it tough to click him over a Ian Garry, and this fight should go the distance so if we get a 60 point win from strikes he won’t come close to paying off his salary.
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