Thirteen fights in total for UFC Fight Night Atlanta. We have some heavy favorites here, including a -2000 fight which I do not remember ever seeing. This will be a fun card up and down as they have put together a card full of fighters who get knockouts/finishes, which makes the viewing so much more entertaining. Headlined by Buckley vs Usman, this should be a nice DFS slate to find the correct values who get the finishes and win you some big money in the contests DK will have up. Everyone made weight for a change of pace so that will be nice, now we navigate the minefields to win some money.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Atlanta slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Joaquin Buckley | $9000 | -270 | 35%
He has really cemented his spot within this division after dropping weight classes. Usman has not fought in almost 2 years. He has lost 3 in a row, is pushing 40, and his knees are shot. Buckley is coming in on a 6 fight win streak, with 4 of them being KO/TKO finishes. He will mix in some wrestling if need be, but my guess is he stays standing here and pieces Usman apart with his speed and power advantages and we see New Mansa get one step closer to a title fight.
Malcolm Wellmaker | $9800 | -2000 | 42%
Short and sweet, Wellmaker hits like a freight train and Moutinho likes to play defense with his face. He is a tough son of a gun, but this fight is screaming gift wrap matchup from the UFC brass to give Wellmaker another win.
Ricky Simon | $8700 | -525| 44%
Ricky will look to compound off his big KO win last time out, which was slightly surprising because he is definitely more of a wrestler. He averages over 5 takedowns per fight in the UFC and style of fighting leads to big DK scores when you get a win. Smotherman taking this fight on short notice as well, and Ricky should be able to finish it on the feet or through his wrestling.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Oumar Sy| $9500| -700| 30%
Sy is such an elite prospect. 2-0 in the UFC, he is a giant dude with an 83 inch reach, which will be a 7 inch advantage against Menifield here, and he also mixes in wrestling to the point where he averages 3 takedowns per fight and almost 5 significant strikes per minute. He is also 8 years younger, so I fully expect him to light Alonzo up.
Rodolfo Bellato | $9300 | -400 | 40%
Now that his herpes outbreak is all better, we get the matchup that got cancelled a few weeks ago and same as then- Rodolfo by KO/TKO incoming because Craig won’t be able to take him down and will get pieced up on the feet. It needs to be a first round knockout though because there are some big hitters on this card who can put up a ton of points.
Mansur Abul-Malik| $9600 | -800 | 24%
Speaking of big hitters, he got his test last fight where he got rocked and survived moving to 2-0 in the UFC. Brundage will look to wrestle, but I think we see Mansur with his 7 inch reach advantage catch Cody at some point and put the lights out. Like Wellmaker and Bellato, it reall comes down to who does it the best with their KO accruing either the quick bonus, or multiple knockdowns.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Cody Durden | $7600 | +168| 23%
Durden the tried and tested vet against Ochoa the 10 year younger prospect. He is 0-1 in the UFC and now faces someone who has similar pace with significant strikes per minute, but averages 4 takedowns per fight. Wrestling upside is always nice on a live dog.
Miranda Maverick | $7200 | +206 | 21%
She will be looking to get this fight to the ground where she will try to rely on control time. She is a ground and pound style fighter who averages over 2 takedowns per fight in her last 10, and averages over 6 minutes of control time in her wins. She has touched 100+ DK points in 3 of her wins, so if she wins she will be on the optimal lineup more than likely.
Court McGee| $7000 | +285 | 18%
Old man vs slightly older man here. Court looked good in his last fight, Chiesa is coming off 2 wins in a row himself, however he is such low volume and relies on his submissions that I would rather take the underdog who has the ability to finish the fight on the feet or with a takedown and ground and pound or a submission of his own.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Michael Chiesa | $9200 | +350 | 17%
See the McGee write up. No way I am paying 9200 for him when you have the other big hitters priced around him.
Kamara Usman| $7200 | +230 | 43%
I think Buckley knocks him out at some point and fading him at super chalk seems ideal.
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