We have 12 fights as of now, some real good matchups and of course we are headlined by Whittaker vs RDR in a clash of middleweights vying for one spot closer to being a title contender. There are some really fun fights this week, and being in Abu Dhabi means we get to see Shara the pirate fight again. The Co-main of Yan vs Mcghee is a very interesting fight with someone who has been knocking on the door to get another title shot vs the up and coming prospect who has looked pretty impressive.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Abu Dhabi slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Carlos Leal | $9400 | -500 | 34%
He averages almost 10 significant strikes per minute, mixes in a takedown per fight also while averaging 1.5 submission attempts off that which shows he keeps control. He has 90% takedown defense, is 10 years younger and has a 4 inch reach advantage. Leal will win inside the distance here. Just need him to outscore Shara, Yan and Nguyen here which I think he puts up 100+ for us.
Ibo Aslan | $8900 | -258 | 37%
Has massive KO power, averages nearly 8 significant strikes per minute and just unfortunately ran into the Hulk version of Cutelaba last time out and got caught in a submission. Elekana looked middle of the road in his debut, so give me the guy with the power to put your lights out. Elekana did take his debut on short notice so there is some merit to him not being as bad as that showing, but I think we see Aslan KO him and get an early finish.
Bryce Mitchell | $8300 | -140| 30%
Bryce is making his debut in this new weight class for him, and gets a pretty solid stylistic matchup here with Said who does not have much output on the feet and should not be nearly as good on the ground as Mitchell. He really only has lost to some of the better fighters at featherweight, so I expect his size and ability to just be too much for Nurmagomedov here. It will be a grind out decision or a submission win, either way I expect Bryce to get some takedowns and have control time.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Petr Yan | $9300 | -375 | 18%
This is an interesting matchup because Yan is the former champ who has only lost to the guys who also have gone on to hold the belt in the last few years. McGhee is an up and coming prospect who is undefeated in the UFC, and has looked great, except the last round of his last fight against Martinez who damn near TKO’d him with leg kicks. This just seems like a huge step up in competition and I think Yan can beat him on the feet or on the ground, and should be low owned. He is a nice ownership leverage if you play multiple lineups.
Damon Blackshear | $9000 | -330 | 27%
He is the younger, bigger, stronger version of Davey Grant and should look to take advantage of his strength and size with grappling. He has shown he will wrestle heavily if need be, and I think we see him work that in and get a handful of takedowns and control time and if he does not find a finish he will win the rounds.
Amanda Ribas | $8600 | -200 | 24%
The only women’s fight on the card, I think we see the different levels of the game here with Ribas who has fought the upper echelon of the division go up against Ricci and use her 5 inch reach advantage to outpoint her on the feet, and both will look to wrestle, but Ribas is more of a threat with submissions so I will side with her.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Asu Almabayev | $8000 | -103 | 38%
This is a short notice fight where it is Asu the grappler vs Ochoa the striker. Asu got lit up by Kape last fight, but there are a handful of people on the planet who are as quick on the feet with their striking as Kape. Asu will look to implement a grapple heavy approach to keep this fight on the ground where he can rack up DK points en route to a decision win.
Reinier de Ridder | $7800 | +140 | 40%
With a grapple heavy approach, and the possibility of 5 rounds of scoring with takedowns and control, RDR is one of my favorite dogs this week. He has a 5 inch reach advantage, averages almost 5 takedowns per fight and this will be a very good test of his skills. Whitaker is one of the best middleweights to have come through the UFC, but give me the awkward style of RDR here to pull the upset and find a submission.
Bogdan Guskov | $7500 | +172 | 28%
He is on a 3 fight win streak, via finish in every one of them, and averaging over 100 points per win. He lost his UFC debut and has won 3 straight, coming up against Krylov who has not won in 2 years, and came off the long layoff only to be KO’d by Reyes earlier this year. Guskov has the ability to win via KO or submission here. Krylov is probably the better overall fighter, but we need underdogs who not only can win, but have slate breaking upside with a finish and thats Guskov here.
Side note- I am moving my play of Guskov to Buday in single entries because if a chubby sloppy heavyweight is gonna win, I think it’ll be the current UFC fighter who’s 7-1 in the UFC, not the grappler making his debut.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Marcus Buchecha | $9100 | -300 | 34%
Marcus making his debut, priced at 9100, and he seems to be a one trick pony who needs to get the fight to the ground for a submission. Buday is definitely not a world beater, but he sports a 100% takedown defense in the UFC and If Buchecha cannot get him down there is no way he pays off his salary. Was close to writing up Buday as a live dog here this week.
Jose Ochoa | $8200 | -117 | 20%
This is a fade more so because I would rather play Mitchell for 100 more, or just use Asu who will have the wrestle heavy approach. Even if Ochoa is winning on the feet for half a round, if Asu gets him down and controls him for minutes at a time it is going to eat into his ability to score DK points.
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