We have reached the final PPV of the year, and hopefully ever for the UFC, as we reach UFC 323 which is the last PPV of their ESPN contract before moving to Paramount in January. We have a rematch of The Machine Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan for the bantamweight title, and Pantoja vs the up and coming young stud Joshua Van for the flyweight title. We also have what looks to be a title contender eliminator for the flyweights with Moreno vs Taira, what should be Cejudo’s retirement fight against Talbott, and a rare Jan Blacowicz sighting in a matchup of ranked light heavyweights. It should be a fun card all the way through, so let’s dive in.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 323 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Merab Dvalishvili | $9500 | -400 | 64%
We have a rematch where Merab scored 168 DK points in their last fight, he is coming off scoring 219.5 points against Sandhagen. He averages 125.5 DK points, over 2 takedowns per round and we get 5 rounds from him. He is just relentless, and I think we see more of the same here from him en route to a monster DK score and win by decision, unless he finds a late finish when he has Yan completely gassed.
Mansur Abdul-Malik | $9900 | -1200 | 26%
He looked god awful last fight, but I am going to chalk that up to a big time learning curve to realize he is not going to just run through people with ease. He has amazing KO power, and Trocoli is pretty damn bad. Trocoli averages 1.2 significant strikes per minute and not even a takedown per fight. This means at that pace if the fight went 15 minutes he would not even land 20 significant strikes…This is a highlight reel KO get right spot for Mansur. He is lower owned because of how expensive he is, but he should get a nice finish this fight.
Alexandre Pantoja | $9000 | -225 | 44%
I think for this fight you will want close to 100% of either side if you are making multiple lineups. They both have clear routes to victory, and we have seen Pantoja time and time again find his takedown and work to the submission to win. Van has elite output on the feet and if he catches Pantoja we will have a new champ. Love this fight, Pantoja’s style is preferred because DK loves wrestling.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Jalin Turner | $9100 | -300 | 27%
Nearly a decade younger, coming off his “retirement” we get Turner back against Barboza in a matchup where he should be able to dictate the pace, distance, and if he wants to wrestle he can employ some takedowns. He is taller, longer reach, and has more power.
Grant Dawson | $8900 | -210 | 23%
This is another fight I think you want a piece of no matter what, as they both have huge scoring upside. Torres is a knockout killer and we have seen Dawson wrestle away and rack up DK points en route to a very good UFC career so far. If the fight stays standing, Dawson is probably in trouble, so I expect him to chain wrestle and spam takedowns to wear out Torres while finding a finish.
Chris Duncan | $8600 | -160 | 29%
Kill or be Killed first round phenom Terrance McKinney gets Chris Duncan this time out, and I think we see him navigate the blitz early and finish T Wrecks. This is another fight where you almost want to have a piece of no matter what, but it should be very fun while it lasts.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Nazim Sadykov | $7900 | +110 | 18%
Higher output on the feet, equal wrestling, and averages over 90 DK points in his career along with having multiple 100+ point performances coming into this fight. He will have to get inside the reach of Ziam, but he will fight for our money.
Bogdan Guskov | $7800 | +115 | 25%
Jan is 9 years older at 42, never fights anymore, and is 1-3-1 in his last 5. Bogdan is 4-1 in his last 5, averages almost a strike more per minute on the feet and I think we see Jan lay his gloves down in the middle of the cage after he gets finished here.
Karine Silva | $7500 | +150 | 15%
This is a tough last one because there are a handful of dogs who have good upside. Silva is a tough out for Barber, and even though she is the dog she has better inside the distance props so if this fight does not go the distance the books expect Karine to be the one who find a finish. She will be low owned, and probably does not have the crazy score upside of McKinney or Torres that she is priced around, but a great game theory play here.
I also think Brandon Moreno is live, but everything always comes down to salary construction so it depends where you land with Nazim/Guskov/Silva/Moreno/McKinney/Torres/Van.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Payton Talbott | 9200 | -265 | 11%
It is Cejudo’s retirement fight, and this is a clash of styles as Talbott will want to stand and strike and Henry will shoot takedowns. I really want Talbott to knock Cejudo out and knock some sense into him so he stops saying Usman deserves a title shot, but I think this fight could be a boring, not much action fight so I will fade both sides.
Maycee Barber | $8700 | -175 | 12%
See Silva write up.
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