We are back to a massive PPV, the 2nd to last one before the move to Paramount, and it is such a loaded and exciting card. 14 fights, 2 championship fights, massive fights for the Welterweight division on the main card, Dariush vs BSD as the main card opener, and really just a banger card top to bottom here for the New York PPV like they always tend to roll out.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 322 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Islam Makhachev | $9200 | -250 | 44%
Islam is coming in as the 2nd highest owned fighter on the slate, and we know he will look to wrestle and lean on his grappling. This tends to score very well on DK, and at his current price tag he has hit value 9 fights in a row averaging well over 100 DK points. I think you will want both sides of this fight, as JDM is a massive welterweight and has elite boxing, but I would lean like a 65/35 split towards Islam.
Benoit St Dennis | $8800 | -180 | 27%
God of War is just a tenacious all action in your face style of fighter who will push forward and look to find a finish on the feet or on the mat. He averages 5 significant strikes per minute and 4.3 takedowns per fight. He scores over 100 in his wins, and he gets an aging Dariush who missed weight. He just has more ways to win and I expect to see a finish here by BSD en route to a nice big score.
Malcolm Wellmaker | $8400 | -600 | 48%
He goes from having a very tough fight with an opponent who is all pressure/wrestling, to a guy who will stand with him and is taking the fight on 3 days notice. His opponent is priced like Malcolm should be 9500, so you are getting great value with someone who has first round knockouts in all his UFC fights.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Baisangur Susurkaev | $9800 | -800 | 29%
He was quite the show off last time out and got the win over a welterweight stepping in on short notice. McConico is not very good, and Baisangur should have the advantage on the feet and in the wrestling department, so this is why even though he is expensive he is still a good play because of the finishing upside and if he does it in round 1 he should 10x his score.
Kyle Daukaus | $9300 | -350 | 20%
So, this is slightly scary because Daukaus got run out of the UFC for awhile and just made his way back, but he got a clean knockout over Pereira in the first round and now gets matched up with Meerschaert who I really thought had retired after is last loss, but here we are. I think a Daukaus first round KO is coming and another 100+ score.
Gregory Rodrigues | $8600 | -160 | 26%
He is coming off a nice first round win, and has won 4 of his last 5 fights with the only loss being to Cannonier where he just completely gassed after having Cannonier on the ropes. He is the better grappler here, more powerful on the feet, elite BJJ, and if he can not get caught by Kopylov he should win this fight, and if he gets it to the ground we have seen Kopylov not really know what to do when he gets down there. Robocop ITD should pay off his salary and get us 90+
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Zhang Weili | $8000 | +115 | 26%
She is coming in at nearly half the ownership as Valentina, which I get Weili is moving up a weight class but she is such a monster inside the cage. Averages over 5 significant strikes per minute to go along with over 2 takedowns per fight, and we know she can go the distance and not gas out. I think all is said and done we hear Bruce say “and new” an weili can score 120+ in 5 rounds which at her salary is huge.
Chepe Mariscal | $7900 | +105 | 27%
Chepe beat him once before, is 5-0 in the UFC, averages 104 fantasy points per UFC fight, and has double the output on the feet and his takedown defense is a solid 75% vs Sabatini’s 48%. This just looks like a fight where the opening line dictated the pricing and it should have been flipped. Chepe going to grind out a win for us here as a slight dog.
Michael Morales | $7700 | +120 | 22%
I flipped back and forth on this fight all week. I think if you have multiple lineups this is another fight you want exposure to on both sides, but my god is morales just physically imposing compared to Brady. 7 inch reach advantage, definitely superior on the feet, but we will see how he handles the pressure and grappling Brady brings in the biggest fight of his career. Morales has 89% takedown defense, however Brady is the best wrestler he has ever faced. If this fight stays on the feet, Morales more than likely wins by KO and more than pays off his salary.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Bo Nickal | $9100 | -230 | 21%
He is not good at striking, Vieira is elite on the ground with his BJJ so I don’t know how much Bo will really want to take him down and play around on the ground here. Tough to pay for Nickal when you have killers priced around him.
Pat Sabatini | $8300 | -125 | 19%
Picking Chepe to win, and even if you are lean Pat the finishing equity of the fighters priced around him make more sense than Pat here.
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