Back in action this week for UFC 319 in Chicago. We have a wild last few days with the UFC adding 3 additional fights to get up to 15, just to have 3 fights cancelled. Two to injury and one to Battle being as unprofessional as you can while missing weight by 4 pounds after moving up to the middleweight from welter because he missed weight last time there…regardless, 12 fights is not bad and we are headlined by the much anticipated title bout between DDP and Khamzat. Buckle up, it is going to be a fun card up and down.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 319 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Baisangur Susurkaev | $9600 | -1200 | 43%
Electric finish Tuesday on the Contender Series, gets his contract and immediately onto this card and is a huge favorite. Trains with Khamzat, looks like he is going to be the bigger and stronger fighter in this one. He should win by KO in the first couple rounds, just is a matter of how much damage he dishes out en route to the finish on if he will be at the 110+ we will need from him.
Chase Hooper | $9300 | -335 | 34%
5 fight win streak coming in, where his average DK score has been 112+. Hernandez has good takedown defense, but I think Hooper is evolving before our eyes and will continue to improve his striking while also having the world class BJJ in his back pocket to use anytime he gets someone down. Hooper ITD is the pick here
Khamzat Chimaev | $8900 | -237| 55%
I am going to start this off with….I love DDP and think the UFC is better with him as champion than Khamzat. I will 10000% be cheering for DDP on Saturday night, and I would also recommend having 100% of this fight as both of their paths to victory would pay off their respective salaries. Khamzat is a freaking beast we have seen kill people quick in round 1, he will look to wrestle heavily and Dricus does get taken down, if he cannot get back up like he does against his previous opponents, it will be because of Chimaev’s strength and he will find a finish on the ground if it stays there.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Carlos Prates | $9100 | -225 | 27%
He was so close to beating Garry at the end of their fight, which would have gotten him a title shot more than likely with how much the UFC likes him. He has the reach over Neal, has gotten to work against southpaws all camp with the Fighting Nerds, and when he wins this kid gets a KO finish. I think we see the Prates show up who will apply pressure and hunt for a finish all fight instead of the version we saw last time out.
Karine Silva | $8800 | -205 | 19.5%
Silva is going to be pretty low owned here, and we have seen her upside in wins being 100+. I think she is a nice low owned pivot off Khamzat in any lineup you make with Dricus. She averages nearly a takedown per round, looks for submission constantly, and Barbosa is taking this fight on short notice so we don’t know how the gas tank will hold up.
Aaron Pico | $8200 | -155 | 35%
I will start out by saying in the beginning of the week I had the mindset of “Pico is not from the UFC fighting someone who is undefeated and will show him there are levels to this game” and bet on Murphy. For DFS purposes, Pico makes a lot of sense. Murphy gets taken down, Pico is a wrestler first and foremost, and Murphy is a decision merchant whereas Pico looks for finishes. Give me the wrestling upside, and I think we see someone who doesn’t get blinded by the big lights making their debut.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Jared Cannonier | $7500 | +165 | 18%
MVP is a boring fighter, and although his style is weird and leads to some boring fights, I think Cannonier pushes forward and engages in some clinch and wrestling to mitigate the disadvantage with speed. They are both on the older end of the spectrum for a UFC fighter, but Cannonier has more paths to victory as I do not see MVP getting a KO finish here.
Gerald Meerschaert | $7200 | +185 | 21%
This is similar to the main event for me, where I think you want a side of this fight in your lineup. Meerschaert’s path to victory is getting this fight to the ground and finding a submission, which is the M.O. on how to beat Mikey O. Michal’s path to victory is knocking Gerald the F out, which we have seen happen also. This fight is expected to finish inside the distance, so if you don’t have Michal in your lineup, I would try to find room for GM3 here.
Tim Elliot | $7000 | +250 | 23%
Elliot’s clear path to victory here is implementing a wrestle heavy gameplan and keeping Kai off his feet where he is super dangerous. Elliot averages over a takedown per round, so if he can do that and manage some control time every round he will be able to rack up some DK points en route to a win. He has not fought in awhile, and has made some candid videos for social media about being out of shape, but I think we see the old man show Kai how the UFC and Rizin are different levels of the MMA world.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Kai Asakura | $9200 | -300 | 23%
I do not know if it was just Pantoja who made him look like he cannot stop a takedown, or if that is just how his fights are going to go. Elliot is going to look to replicate this and keep Kai off is feet where he is super dangerous. If Kai gets taken down and controlled for a round, it will start to kill his ceiling to score enough to be optimal, and if Elliot wrestles the whole fight Kai won’t be able to pay off his salary.
Edson Barboza | $8300 | -150 | 20%
This fight is favored to go the distance, neither one will look to implement wrestling, and with it being one of the closer priced mid tier fights it will get a little bit of steam for ownership. Looks like Klose will be in the 22% range. If someone were to get a KO finish, it is probably going to be Barboza, but it is hard to click him when the fighters priced directly above and below him at least have the upside of the wrestling with takedowns+control time to rack up DK points.
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