What a fun PPV we have for international fight week, UFC 317 for the lightweight belt and we have the flyweight belt on the line also. Headlined by Ilia Topuria making his lightweight debut against Charles Oliveira, it is a good card top to bottom and should make for some interesting DFS builds. We not only have the flyweight championship on the line, the #1 contender is fighting Van on short notice to see who will be up next. We did lose one fight due to the dumbass being 10 pounds over weight on Thursday night still, subsequently the fight was called off and he was cut from the UFC.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 317 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Ilia Topuria | $9300 | -452 | 51%
He is just so damn talented, hits like a truck, and has not had to showcase his wrestling and BJJ yet in the UFC. Charles is super tough, has the most performance bonuses ever, and is the former lightweight champ so it should be the toughest fight Ilia has had. However, I think he will avoid the kicks from Charles and close the distance and drop Da Bronxs en route to becoming the new lightweight champion in the world.
Alexandre Pantjoa | $9000 | -220 | 43%
Pantoja is just a dog, relentless pressure and mixes in wrestling to go with his striking. KKF will try to keep this on the feet and look for a finish that way, but we have seen Pantoja beat every single top 10 guy in this division seemingly, and beat KKF before they made their official UFC debuts in one of the ultimate fighter seasons.
Jacobe Smith | $9900 | -2500| 37%
Niko getting sacrificed to the prospect here. Smith is a crazy good wrestler who showed on the contender series he can chain wrestle. Then came out and knocked out Parsons in the first round in his official debut. Look for a first round finish via ground and pound and after a takedown or two depending on if Niko can even find a way to get back up.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Tracy Cortes | $8900| -255| 13%
This fight is going to carry no ownership, so naturally this is a spot to get different and try to win some GPP’s. She only averages about 84 points in her wins, so this is mostly an ownership play if you wanted to play Ilia/pantoja and go Ilia/tracy instead for 30% lower ownership.
Felipe Lima | $8700 | -170 | 17%
This is purely a GPP pivot off of Mckinney chalk. Lima is projected one of the lowest owned favorites, and I think he will copy Barcelos’ game plan against Talbott and wrestle heavy. This will all come down to if Peyton has improved his ability to stop takedowns and get back up, but Lima should score very well if that is the gameplan he implements
Brandon Royval | $8200 | +100 | 22%
Van opened as a big favorite, is the amazingly talented newcomer who keeps taking on fights and winning. I think there is a very big difference in talent from who he has fought in his last 5 fights, to someone like Royval who is the #1 contender for a reason. The metrics push for the Van side, but I am going to take Royval at lower ownership to sneak in a choke and find a finish.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Beneil Dariush | $7800 | -110 | 29%
This was a tough one because neither side has a huge advantage anywhere. With that being the case, I am going to take Beneil for the salary savings. It is a pickem, and Dariush will be slightly higher owned because of the salary difference, but I think he is a little better overall and Moicano is a little overrated because of him being on social media and interacting with the fans so much.
Hyder Amil | $7700 | +125 | 32%
Amil averages 6.85 significant strikes per minute, is undefeated in his 3 UFC fights with 2 wins coming via TKO/KO and the last a decision win against Gomes where he still scored 95.7. He averages over 100 DK points in his 3 fights, and this fight is favored to finish inside the distance.
Jack Hermansson | $7400 | +185 | 19%
Jack averages 5.09 significant strikes per minute, 1.5 takedowns per fight, and in his wins averages over 100 DK points. He just needs to survive what seems like 1 round from Robocop before he gasses out completely. They are fairly evenly matched with metrics, Jack has a 2 inch reach advantage, both will mix in wrestling but after watching Gregory gas and quit a few times, I will take the dog.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Renato Moicano | $8400 | -110 | 22%
See the Beneil write up above.
Kai Kara France| $7200 | -+185 | 34%
Pantoja should wreck him, he has lost 2 of his last 3 leading into this and is only getting the shot because Pantoja has beaten everyone else in the top 10. Highest owned dog, no thank you.
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