We have twelve fights on the slate for UFC 315, headlined by the matchup of Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena for the Welterweight title, and co-main is Shevchenko vs Fiorot for the Women’s Flyweight title. We lost Alvarez who was scheduled to fight BSD in what was my favorite fight on the card, but at least they found a replacement to keep this card to 12 fights. The
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 315 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Benoit St Denis | $9700 | -1000 | 47%
Averages over 5 significant strikes per minute, 4 takedowns per fight, averages 1 knockdown per fight, and is taking on someone who was not in the ufc and took the fight on short notice. BSD rights the ship here. First round finish incoming and a 110+ score.
Belal Muhammad | $8700| -170 | 47%
We watched Gilbert Burns take JDM down 7 times last fight, and as boring and hated as Belal is, he is champ for a reason and that is because he just keeps winning every fight they put him in. Elite control when he gets a takedown, don’t see him standing and trading with the best boxer in the division.
Ion Cutelaba | $8200 | -112 | 32%
The Hulk pushes the pace, averages 4.5 takedowns per fight, 4.3 significant strikes per minute, and will push hard for a finish like he always does.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Navajo Stirling | $9100 | -305 | 31%
He is a vaunted prospect, looked mediocre last time out but again is a sizable favorite. He has a 7 inch each advantage, lands over twice as many significant strikes per minute, and I think we see a first or second round finish here.
Jasmine Jasudavicius | $9200 | -320 | 32%
Has turned on the wrestling side of her attack lately, on her 4 fight win streak she is averaging a takedown per round. Andrade looked pretty washed last time out, is solid on the feet but giving up 6 inches in height and reach here will make it even tougher on her. Jaz is averaging over 100 DK points in her last 4 fights.
Marc-Andre Barriault | $8400 | -140 | 24%
These guys are both rough of late, but Barriault pushes the pace averaging 6 significant strikes per minute and should be able to piece Silva up on the feet.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
JeongYeong Lee | $7800 | -21| 27%
Santos is a fairly inactive fighter, he hasn’t fought in almost two years. Lee should look to piece him up on the feet as Santos pushes forward and use the 6 inch reach advantage to set everything up with the jab and either out point Santos on the feet or finish him. Santos is moving up a weight class so Lee should have the size and strength advantage also.
Valentina Shevchenko | $7700 | +110 | 45%
I have flip flopped from my earlier stance on using Manom from a few days ago. I needed the savings and Valentina has a ton of upside at her price. She will look to grapple more so if we get 5 rounds of takedowns and control we will have a monster score.
Charles Ratdke| $7300 | +144 | 25%
This is a pretty even fight on paper. They average around 3.5 significant strikes per minute, both are 4-1 their last 5, reach is within an inch, same age, but Malott needs his wrestling to work in order to succeed and Charles has a 100% takedown defense. I will never bet on Malott after the Magny fight, so that’s a little bias but Radtke just needs to do his thing and a win pays off his salary.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Jose Aldo | $9000 | -192 | 12%
He could not even get close to making weight, in his last win did not score well as he only boxes now so there is no takedown upside, and at his price point he would need a first round KO to pay off and I think there are better plays priced around him.
Mike Malott | 8900 | -164 | 24%
I am picking Radtke to win as a Dog so I will have 0 Malott. It is hard to overcome the stigma of being a quitter like he got labeled for his performance against Magny. He may be the better technical fighter, but Radtke has the heart and power.
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