We get 12 fights this week as the UFC did a late addition of John Castaneda and Chris Gutierrez to get us a baker’s dozen. Headlined by the mega star Alex Pereira defending his title against Magomed Ankalaev. There are some very fun fights to pick from this week, with a lot of heavy handed fighters who have shown KO power in their careers. Everyone made weight thankfully, so we should have a really fun card this week.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Vegas 103 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Magomed Ankalaev | $7900 | -110 | 45%
This pains me as I really would prefer to see Pereira KO him, but the smart play is the grapple heavy approach he will implement on Alex and he has KO power as previously displayed by his multiple knockouts in the UFC. We are here to make money, and he has more DK scoring upside, so he is the play and if you get 5/5 going into the main event you just bet on Pereira and hedge your profit that way.
Curtis Blaydes | $9100 | -350 | 39%
I do not get why this fight is happening, let alone Blaydes not being on the PPV, but he is an elite heavyweight going against a prospect making his debut. Not often you have the #5 fighter in a division taking on someone making their debut who isn’t a big name from another organization, he just needs to not get chain wrestled like Almeida did to him, however even then he lit Jailton up when he shot in the 2nd round and go a finish. Blaydes will show there are levels to this game and send Kuniev off with a loss.
Iasmin Lucindo | $8500 | -140 | 19%
Lucindo is going to be pretty low owned all things considered, and has a whopping 14 year age gap in her favor against someone with similar metrics, but she seems to be the better grappler and lands almost a takedown per round. I think we see her drag Lemos down and get a finish in the first two rounds, and if she can grapple heavily during those rounds she could break the slate at no ownership.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Carlos Leal | $9600 | -775 | 39%
He is a massive favorite, and will be fairly high owned, so if you use him make sure to be different with the underdogs you pick. He lands over 7 significant strikes per minute, averages a takedown per fight and should be better everywhere the fight goes against Moreno. If he doesn’t get a finish in the first two rounds he will not pay off his salary more than likely, which is why he is not a core play.
Mauricio Ruffy | $9400 | -460 | 31%
This one comes down to if King Green is indeed washed or not. This should be a tough test, but Ruffy looks like he has all the goods to win this fight on the feet with his 4 inch reach advantage and being 10 years younger. We have seen Green get KO’d by Turner and submitted by Paddy so if Borralho is being truthful when he says Ruffy is the most talented of the Fighting Nerds, I think we see him deliver a big win here.
Djorden Santos | $8700 | -192 | 27%
This one is kind of worrisome as its a young guy making his UFC debut against a giant who has 4 inches in height and reach advantage. Ozzy got chinned early last time out, and I think we see Djorden push the pace and pressure him against the fence and knock him out for another loss.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Jalin Turner | $8000 | +105 | 29%
This fight is going to be awesome. Turner averages 5.6 significant strikes per minute and will more than likely also look to grapple here. Bahamondes is an animal so I don’t think we see Turner stand and strike unless he is the one being successful on the feet, and Ignacio has no grappling offense so give me the dog who can win in more fashions than the favorite.
Bruno Ferreira | $7600 | +130 | 33%
The crazy part here is Petrosyan is 5 inches taller than Ferreira, but he has 1 inch disadvantage in reach. Brunno will have the grappling advantage here, and I think we see him get a finish against Armen when he has him in the clinch or on the mat. Petrosyan sports a terrible 31% takedown defense, which should be a big part of the game plan here.
Rei Tsuruya | $7400 | +163 | 24%
This is such a tricky fight because each guy has a clear path to victory, Rei getting Van down to the mat and finding a submission, or Van by KO because he is elite on the feet and averages almost 9 significant strikes per minute. I tend to side with guys with grappling upside as DK rewards them with so many points, and I think we see Rei pull off a submission here.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Mairon Santos | $9200 | -310 | 19%
Santos is an elite counter strike who is facing someone in Marshall who will be looking to get Mairon down to the mat. This one seems like a fight destined to go to decision, and without the grappling upside to accumulate extra DK points this is just a spot I would rather fade and play the guys priced around him.
Rafael Fiziev | $8400 | -155 | 29%
I was kind of surprised Fiziev is the favorite here, but I guess the Holloway KO is making everyone question Gaethje’s chin. This is a rematch where Justin won and only scored 77. If Rafael cannot finish Gaethje, I don’t see him being in the optimal lineup at this price point.
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