Well, we unfortunately lost the Park fight so we are down to 12 fights instead of 13 for UFC 312. It still should be a fun card with the majority of the fights having betting lines to finish ITD. We have a lot of people making their debuts which is always scary for DFS, but we just got to avoid the land mines and get the dogs right to take down all our contests. With two championship fights getting 5 rounds both of those contests will deservedly take a lot of ownership, particularly the Suarez/Weili fight. Without further ado, let’s dive in to the plays for this week
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 312 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Quillan Salkilld | $9600 | -675 | 28%
It is kind of wild to pay 9600 for a guy making his debut, but he has multiple paths to victory here. Jubli is not a cake walk, but Quillan has 6 inches in reach, and has shown the ability to take his opponents down and chain wrestle when need be. He either needs a finish or a ton of takedowns to pay off, but I love the wrestling upside here.
Dricus Du Plessis | $8600 | -205 | 51%
Stillknocks won a controversial decision in their first matchup, but scored 119 DK points. He secured 6 takedowns and almost 140 significant strikes, and I expect him to push forward landing shots and getting takedowns again and this time leave no doubt to why he’s the champ. He averages 110 DK points and his style always scores well.
Weili Zhang | $8000 | +105 | 40%
This pick was hard because a lot of people are on the Suarez side, which is evident by the line moving from Weili as a -250 favorite to being a dog. I think she pushes the pace and wears Suarez out. Whoever wins this fight will almost assuredly be in the optimal lineup due their pricing and I’m on the champ to retain her belt.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Aleksandre Topuria | $9300 | -375 | 33%
Another risk here paying a high price for someone making their debut in the UFC, however I think training with Ilia is a huge advantage and Aleksandre gets the finish as he has heavier shots on the feet and can out grapple Thicknesse if he wants to go that route.
Kody Steele| $9100 | -220 | 26%
Yet another debut fighter, but this is in line with picking someone who has more power in their stand up and having the upper hand in grappling. Kody will push the pace and look for an early finish, and if he can’t find it on the feet expect him to drag Rong to the mat to finish with a ground and pound TKO.
Gabriel Santos | $8900 | -225 | 23%
This is a tough fight to pick as they are both strong with their stand up, Jenkins particularly with his leg kicks, but I think Santos will grapple with him and look to finish the fight that way and not get his legs broken. It really comes down to santos shooting correctly and not getting clipped on the way in.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Tom Nolan | $7900 | +125 | 28%
This fight is expected to finish ITD, with both guys being good strikers. With Nolan’s reach advantage and having heavier shots I would expect a KO finish by Nolan or him to get worn down, but you need an underdog or two to get 6/6 and I like the KO ability here over using Tafa who has a tougher matchup with the giant of a man Teixeira.
Jimmy Crute | $7700 | +130 | 24%
This fight is going to ultimately come down to Crute not getting caught early on the feet by Bellato and being able to implement his grappling. I expect Crute to drag Bellato down and get a submission win here and score well enough to go 10x.
Bruna Brasil | $6800 | +295 | 9%
This isn’t as much a reaction to Cong’s last fight where the lost as a massive favorite to bring more to Brasil having the edge grappling and if she gets Cong down we see a submission win and her being optimal due to the cheap price tag of 6800. If Bruna can avoid getting caught on the feet, she should secure the upset on the mat.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Wang Cong | $9400 | -375 | 22%
Overlap from the live dog pick of Brasil, don’t think it’s worth price tag without a first round win due to lack of grappling and we are gonna need big DK scores this card with all the wrestlers and guys with big KO power.
Kevin Joussett | $9000 | -245 | 16%
I think he wins, but he isn’t someone who shoots takedowns and instead uses grappling along the fence to land strikes. Micallef will be looking to secure takedowns and not engage in a fire fight which can lead to a boring drawn out fight that doesn’t score well.
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