Welcome to Showdown Faceoff, the article where we break down the showdown slate matchup at QB under a prop betting lens. The premise is simple, we run 10,000 simulations and the tool uses advanced data science to determine what the reasonable probability of an outcome is. Then we take that simulated probability and compare it to the betting line to find any potential edge.
This Thursday night we have the Seattle Seahawk’s QB, Sam Darnold, going head to head with the Denver Bronco’s QB, Bo Nix. The betting lines are obtained from BetOnline the morning of gameday. Please be aware that these are just simulated projections, and are not guaranteed to be accurate. Don’t risk money you are not comfortable losing, especially when chasing props based on the opinions of a simulation.
PASSING YARDS
Sam Darnold Passing Yards – 220.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
The Slate Simulator places the probability of this being under 221 yards at 62.5% which gives us an implied edge of around 9% based on the betting line.
Bo Nix Passing Yards – 201.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
The simulations are giving Nix a 62.6% chance to go for 202 or more passing yards. The betting line is presenting a 53.5% implied probability. That means we are seeing around a 9% implied edge which is a similar edge as the Darnold prop.
COMPLETIONS
Sam Darnold Completions – 18.5 completions
Over: -130
Under: +100
The simulations estimate the likelihood of 19 completions from Darnold to be around 55.2% which is about spot on when compared to the betting line. This is one the Slate Simulator says to stay away from.
Bo NIx Completions – 21.5 completions
Over: -105
Under: -125
Yet another prop where the over looks decent with the Slate Simulator projecting a 65.4% chance that Nix has 22 or more completions. When balanced with the implied probability of the -105 betting line, that gives us around a 14% implied edge.
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Sam Darnold Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns
Over: +135
Under: -165
After running the Slate Simulator here, the under is very attractive at -165, which is a 62% implied probability. The simulations place the probability of being under the 2 TDs mark at 78.6% which leaves a huge 16% implied edge.
Bo Nix Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns
Over: +170
Under: -210
As inflated as that -210 under betting line looks, that is just a 67.7% implied probability and the simulations put Nix being under the 2 touchdown mark with a 78.2% implied probability – showing a roughly 10% implied edge.
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Sam Darnold Passing Attempts – 29.5 attempts
Over: -120
Under: -110
This betting line is about on target with what the Slate Simulator is predicting. For Darnold to have 29 or fewer attempts, the simulations predict a 54.8% chance to be under that mark. That is pretty close to the implied probability of the betting line sitting at 52.4% – leaving just about 2% of implied edge.
Bo Nix Passing Attempts – 34.5 attempts
Over: -125
Under: -105
Slate Simulator projections put the probability of this happening at around 53.3% and when you balance that with the betting line, you really don’t have much meat left on the bone in either direction.
RUSHING YARDS
Sam Darnold Rushing Yards – 4.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
We have a huge implied edge here based on the Slate Simulator believing the chances for Darnold to go over this number sits at 80.7% and the betting line showing only a 53.5% chance in either direction. The over gives us a massive implied edge of around 27% based on simulation data.
Bo Nix Rushing Yards – 13.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
We have either found the glitch with QB’s and rushing yards or we have a serious situation that our developer needs to address with the simulator and the projected outcomes for this stat category. Slate Simulator throws the chances of going over here at 73% and when compared to the 53.5% implied probability of the betting line, we have roughly a 20% estimated edge.
BIGGEST PROBABILITY POINT EDGE
- Sam Darnold – Rushing Yards – 4.5 yards – Over – 27% implied edge
- Bo Nix – Rushing Yards – 13.5 yards – Over – 20% implied edge
- Sam Darnold – Passing TD’s – 1.5 td’s – Under – 16% implied edge
- Bo NIx – Completions – 21.5 completions – Over – 14% implied edge
- Bo Nix – Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns – Under – 10% implied edge
Honorable mentions;
- Sam Darnold – Passing Yards – 220.5 yards – Under – 9% implied edge
- Bo Nix – Passing Yards – 201.5 yards – Over – 9% implied edge
