Welcome to Showdown Faceoff, the article where we break down the showdown slate matchup at QB under a prop betting lens. The premise is simple, we run 10,000 simulations and the tool uses advanced data science to determine what the reasonable probability of an outcome is. Then we take that simulated probability and compare it to the betting line to find any potential edge.
This Monday night we have the Washington Commanders’’ QB, Jaydon Daniels, going head to head with the San Francisco 49er’s QB, Brock Purdy. The betting lines are obtained from BetOnline the morning of gameday. Please be aware that these are just simulated projections, and are not guaranteed to be accurate. Don’t risk money you are not comfortable losing, especially when chasing props based on the opinions of a simulation.
PASSING YARDS
Jaydon Daniels Passing Yards – 209.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
The Slate Simulator places the probability of this being under 210 yards at 74.1% which gives us an implied edge of around 20% based on the betting line.
Brock Purdy Passing Yards – 250.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
The Slate Simulator expects Brock Purdy to be under this number 67% of the time. Leaving us with a 13.5% implied edge. Not as strong as the opinion on Daniels, but could make the cut for top 5 as we progress through. Just barely over the threshold for consideration though.
COMPLETIONS
Jaydon Daniels Completions – 18.5 completions
Over: -125
Under: -105
The simulations place the chances of 19 completions to be 51% over and 49% under. For whatever reason BetOnline seems to be really spot on with their completion lines when compared to what the Slate Simulator thinks. No value in either direction.
Brock Purdy Completions – 20.5 completions
Over: -130
Under: +100
Based on the simulations this line is exactly where it should be, and as a bettor you would likely lose long term on it regardless of direction due to the vig. Easy pass.
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Jaydon Daniels Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns
Over: +110
Under: -140
In the simulations Daniels went under two passing touchdowns 77.4% of the time. The -140 under betting line is an implied probability of 58.3%. That leaves an implied edge of around 19%.
Brock Purdy Passing TD’s – 2.5 touchdowns
Over: +150
Under: -180
Simulations expect Purdy to be under this mark 86.6% of the time. The under betting line, while not an ideal number typically, still presents us with a 22% implied edge – which will almost surely make the top 5 for this game.
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Jaydon Daniels Passing Attempts – 30.5 attempts
Over: -115
Under: -115
The Slate Simulator is showing that Daniels went under 31 attempts in 66.2% of the simulations, and the betting line is sitting at 53.5% implied probability. This is nearly 13% of implied edge. Getting close to the level where we would ignore it, but still something.
Brock Purdy Passing Attempts – 30.5 attempts
Over: -115
Under: -115
This is another prop in this game where the betting line and simulation results align near perfectly. The betting line has a break even point of 53.5%, and the Slate Simulator is expecting Purdy to go 31 competitions or more roughly 52% of the time. Nothing for us here.
RUSHING YARDS
Jaydon Daniels Rushing Yards – 38.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
The number for Daniels here seemed high to me when compared to the numbers we had been seeing so far through this week, but then I checked the simulations and the Slate Simulator has him expected to be at 60-70 yards, and predicts he beats this number 79.9% of the time. That is a huge 26% implied edge on the over.
Brock Purdy Rushing Yards – 20.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
We would need to hold onto our nuts when betting this one also, another big number. Much easier to justify the single digit numbers in my opinion, that’s just one jaunt for a first down usually. These numbers are high for both QBs, but that doesn’t change that the Slate Simulator is expecting Purdy to go over this number 69.8% of the time, and that leaves 16% of implied edge for us to enjoy on the over.
BIGGEST PROBABILITY POINT EDGE
- Jaydon Daniels – Rush Yards – 38.5 yards – Over – 26% implied edge
- Brock Purdy – Pass TDs – 2.5 tds – Under – 22% implied edge
- Jaydon Daniels – Pass Yards – 209.5 yards – Under – 20% implied edge
- Jaydon Daniels – Pass TDs – 1.5 tds – Under – 19% implied edge
- Brock Purdy – Rush Yards – 20.5 yards – Over – 16% implied edge
