Welcome to Showdown Faceoff, the article where we break down the showdown slate matchup at QB under a prop betting lens. The premise is simple, we run 10,000 simulations and the tool uses advanced data science to determine what the reasonable probability of an outcome is. Then we take that simulated probability and compare it to the betting line to find any potential edge.
This Thursday night we have the New England Patriots’ QB, Drake Maye, going head to head with the Chicago Bears’ QB, Caleb Williams. The betting lines are obtained from BetOnline the morning of gameday. Please be aware that these are just simulated projections, and are not guaranteed to be accurate. Don’t risk money you are not comfortable losing, especially when chasing props based on the opinions of a simulation.
PASSING YARDS
Drake Maye Passing Yards – 250.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
The Slate Simulator has Maye coming back under this number in 81% of the simulations. Comparing that with the implied probability of 53.5% leaves us with 27.5% of implied edge based on those simulations.
Caleb Williams Passing Yards – 246.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
Simulations returned Caleb Williams being under 247 yards in 93.8% of the time. This compared to the 53.5% of implied probability has an incredible 40.3% of implied edge. It is worth noting that last week I think we missed on all of the props with such an inflated implied edge.
COMPLETIONS
Drake Maye Completions – 20.5 completions
Over: -105
Under: -125
It is really interesting to see such accuracy when comparing the betting lines in this category with the simulation results. The Slate Simulator has placed the projection for this category to be 20.77 completions, and that means an easy pass for us. No value in either direction.
Caleb Williams Completions – 21.5 completions
Over: +100
Under: -130
Based on the simulations Caleb Williams achieved 22 completions 69.9% of the time. This might be the first time we have an implied edge worth talking about for this category, when compared to the betting line there is 19.9% of implied edge here on the over.
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Drake Maye Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns
Over: -130
Under: +100
Maye threw under 2 touchdowns in 75.2% of the 10,000 simulations. Compared to the exact 50% implied probability on the betting line, that leaves us with 25.2% of implied edge going with the under.
Caleb Williams Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns
Over: -145
Under: +115
The Slate Simulator has Caleb Williams being under 2 touchdowns in 68.3% of the simulations. This leaves us 21.8% of implied edge and is yet another plus money prop the simulations have suggested has value.
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Drake Maye Passing Attempts – 30.5 attempts
Over: -105
Under: -125
Simulations put this number projected to be 30.47 and have it as a 50/50 coin toss. So that basically means we have no direction to take here. Not enough room for error to be long term profitable even if following the Slate Simulator itself proves to be profitable long term. The juice on each side will force you to lose money over any length of time.
Caleb Williams Passing Attempts – 33.5 attempts
Over: -115
Under: -115
Williams went over 34 completions in 61.1% of the simulations, and that does leave a bit of implied edge going with the over, but it will be a single digit of implied edge, and for this experiment it just doesn’t have enough wiggle room to make the list.
RUSHING YARDS
Drake Maye Rushing Yards – 29.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
I am still not convinced there isn’t something on the back end that needs tweaking when it comes to the rushing projections, but maybe I just get a bit concerned about it when the betting lines have the total listed at such a high number. Slate Simulator has Maye going for 30 yards or more 73.9% of the time. That leaves 20.4% of implied edge.
Caleb Williams Rushing Yards – 20.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
The last prop to discuss is yet another pretty high rushing total in my opinion. The Slate Simulator continues to find value in the QB’s running the ball however, projecting Williams to achieve 21 rushing yards in 78.7% of the simulations – leaving us with 25.2% of implied edge.
BIGGEST PROBABILITY POINT EDGE
- Caleb Williams – Pass Yards – 246.5 yards – Under – 40% implied edge
- Drake Maye – Pass Yards – 250.5 yards – Under – 28% implied edge
- Drake Maye – Pass TDs – 1.5 tds – Under – 25% implied edge
- Caleb Williams – Rush Yards – 20.5 yards – Over – 25% implied edge
- Caleb Williams – Pass TDs – 1.5 tds – Under – 22% implied edge
RESULTS TRACKER
Below we will be keeping a running tally of this experiment over the course of the season to see whether or not there is anything here to continue into next season. You will find the results from last week, the last three weeks, and then the total running net profit and loss. All tracking is based on 1 unit on each of the top 5 props each week, and this experiment started with Week 6 of the season. This is paper tracking only, the bets themselves are not actually being placed.
Last Week: +1.86 units
Last 3 Weeks: +1.86 units
Total PNL: +1.86 units
