We are heading to Chyyyyyyyna this week for UFC Macau, with some pretty solid fights top to bottom and 13 total before weigh ins which makes for a really good DFS card.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Sergei Pavlovich
Sergei has looked human lately after his insane stretch of KO’s before Aspinal caught him, but I think Texeira is not really that great, see his last fight, and I think Pavlovich finds his chin and knocks him the F out. We need an early KO to pay off the salary, so hopefully he comes out aggressive for us.
Cody Haddon
Haddon will be pushing the pace in the striking, with wrestling, and has elite significant strike defense so far. Averaging over 9 significant strikes per minute along with a takedown per round, he is an easy click here.
Jake Matthews
He is going to wrestle heavy here, as Harris’ takedown defense is barely above 50% and should be able to maul him en route to a finish. He is super experienced for his age, and lands 3.5 significant strikes per minute and has a good mix of sub wins with KO’s and decisions. I think we see multiple takedowns and a finish here for Jake.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Zhang Mingyang
Menifield is not good anymore, so if Zhang cannot find the finish here in his neck of the woods, after how he lost in terrible fashion, there are going to be some tough questions to be answered by him and his camp. He averages 7.7 significant strikes per minute, and is 11 years younger so he should have the speed advantage. First round KO is going to be my guess here ass he tries to make a statement.
Luis Dias
This fight should be a fun scrap, both will look to wrestle, Dias averaging over 2 takedowns per round is pretty dang enticing here because DK will score that so well. I think you probably want one of them in your lineup regardless of who, just prefer the favorite slightly here.
Alex Perez
Fairly even striking metrics, definitely the better wrestler and grappler, and I think that should be the approach we see from him here to rack up some takedowns, control time, and look for a finish on the mat. If they stay striking he will probably have a tough time, so this is dependant on him implementing some wrestling and controlling where the action takes place.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Angela Hill
Kind of a weird matchup here, but Hill is a savvy vet taking on a debutant who is 38, and Angela should be able to push the pace like she is known for and control the fight. She should have better wrestling if it is needed also, so I will side with the underdog here on this one.
Luis Gurule
He will have to keep the fight on his feet if he wants a chance to win, and he looked damn good 2 weeks ago when he dominated his fight, but Rei is an elite wrestler and he will have to avoid being dragged to the mat where he will have big issues trying to get back up. We have seen the asian wrestlers have no clue what to do if their takedowns don’t work plenty of times, so that is what we will be hoping happens here once again.
Cameron Smotherman
Kai wins this fight 99/100 times if it stays a striking match. He is an elite striker who has struggled coming over to the UFC, and I think we will see Smotherman shoot takedowns early and often and keep him on the mat instead of standing looking for a KO. He has good output at over 4 significant strikes per minute, so we are on the dog here hoping for a nice grapple heavy DK score.
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