Back in action this week for UFC Nashville. Do you know who isn’t back in action, at least not quite yet…Price. So while his name remains at the bottom of this, this is Webguy Josh writing this week as Price is doing fatherly things with his family – he will be back for Slate Sleuth though so no worries.
In the interim I am going to provide you guys some of my amateur opinions on the slate this week. We have a 12 fight slate this week, which is probably the best number of fights for DFS in my opinion. We have what is almost sure to be a high scoring main event between veteran Derrick Lewis and prospect Tallison Teixeira and then a co-main of veteran Stephen Thompson and prospect Gabriel Bonfim. Below them on the card we have several potentially high scoring spots to target as well. Let’s get into it!
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Wednesday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Please be aware that these plays are subject to change as the week goes on. You can unlock my Saturday Morning Slate Sleuth article that contains my exact plays, and access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools available with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Mike Davis
We all remember the last outing from Mike Davis I’m sure. He pulled guard like his name was Ryan Hall and butt scooted like the old guy at jiu-jitsu class. It was hard to watch, I won’t lie. This time around he is fighting Mitch Ramirez and it is my expectation that we will see him return to wrestle heavy, high scoring Mike Davis. At the very least he is a solid cash and small field tournament play sitting at -900 against a guy who isn’t very dangerous. Might be a good spot to pivot from in larger tournaments though as his ownership is likely going to be reasonably high in the upper 9K range.
Tallison Teixeira
In this spot we go from safe to extremely unsafe. Our main event is Tallison Teixeira vs. Derrick Lewis though and having main event equity in this one is likely a requirement. Lewis has a reputation of being a quitter because when the going gets tough Derrick Lewis curls up. Tallison should engage here as he has done numerous times and his success will probably come down to whether or not Lewis can clip him in an early exchange. This is more a tournament play than anything else – but if you are running multiple lineups then make sure to have some Lewis too because his win condition produces a similar score at a better price point. You will probably need the main event winner in your cash lineups too however, so follow your heart there.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Steve Garcia
The 8K range of this slate is by far the weakest with little to choose from. One of the shining stars in my opinion is Steve Garcia, but I expect many others will feel similar keeping his ownership high. He has massive KO upside while riding a streak and he is fighting someone who is on the opposite type of trajectory and isn’t particularly dangerous. That gives us a solid floor with big upside at a reasonable price. It is a cash game wet dream. Garcia has tournament potentially too obviously, however if the ownership comes in as I expect it to, he would likely be one of the best to pivot from for leverage as well.
Jake Matthews
Close fight here between Matthews and Chidi Njokuani. This one should be a pretty entertaining fight, especially if Matthews can get inside Chidi. Jake is tough, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about him being finished, but of course if it stays at a distance Chidi is comfortable with there is always a chance he ends up on the end of a long strike. All things considered in a weak 8k range he is a solid low risk contest option. For larger contests I would look to fighters like Nzechukwu or Tafa who provide less safety, but what I expect to be a much bigger leverage opportunity.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Tuco Tokkos
There are an insane level of quality punts this week for your low risk contests. Punts are low cost fighters that you expect to make it deeper into the fight to at least put up a minimum score around 30/40 points with a slim possibility of winning on the cards. Super Melly would be a good example at $6300. When it comes to winning potential however, Tuco Tokkos is standing out to me pretty clearly. His opponent, Justin Tafa, has shown that he is a fish out of water on the ground and Tukkos has shown his willingness to wrestle along with his toughness in his UFC debut. This play comes with that wrestling upside at a low salary, in what I would consider a coin flip fight.
Valter Walker
Same logic as above for Tukkos, but personally my confidence in Walker is a bit lower. He is fighting Kennedy Nzechukwu, who isn’t exactly a good grappler – but he is a worker that might push Walker past his cardio limit. Add in that Kennedy has so much KO upside and this play becomes a bit riskier. Probably one I would forgo for cash entries, but if he wins he will pay off something serious in tournaments because it should be wrestle and control heavy.
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