We head back to the Apex for UFC Fight Night Houston, headlined by the middleweights who are battling to get the next shot at Khamzat after(if) he fights Imavov. Should be a pretty fun, scrappy card with some good matchups that should align with finishes for the crowd to go wild watching. We also get a few younger prospects fighting on this card who look to have big ceilings in the UFC game, so we will see how Smith, Lebosnoyani and Del Valle do Saturday night.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Carli Judice
Averages almost 11 significant strikes per minute, and gets Miller who is pretty meh. Miller gets hit 2 out of every 3 punches her opponent throws, and gets someone who averages 11 per minute. That means if the fight goes the distance Judice will land over 105 significant strikes en route to winning the fight. She also can find a finish and get even more points. Judice should win, but it is tough to click her over someone like Fluffy or Smith who have the wrestling upside, so you would think that keeps her ownership in check and is a great GPP play.
Anthony Hernandez
Dude is a chain wrestling machine who averages over 2 takedowns per round, and we saw him dog walk Dolidze last time out. Strickland is the talk like tarzan fight like jane kind of guy, and I think his teep kick/jab style is not going to set himself up well here, and we see Fluffy start to get takedowns and wear him down. Strickland has good cardio and has gone 5 rounds many times now, but Fluffy is a different beast and will push pedal to the metal while looking for submission and trying to get a TKO. He also scores amazingly well on DK where they love takedowns and control time.
Jacobe Smith
This should be a very good fight between undefeated prospects, the big difference being this will be Smith’s third walk to the octagon and Harrell is making his debut. Smith averages 2.5 takedowns per round, over 6 significant strikes per minute, and has one of the higher ceilings on the slate next to Fluffy here. He is averaging 109 DK points in his two fights, coming off a first round KO and a 2nd round submission in his last fight.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
He has a massive size and reach difference here, but he is 8 years younger and by far the more aggressive fighter. He is going to get inside the pocket and look to rip Rowe up while mixing in takedowns. He has great output on the feet, and is a very balanced fighter who can get the fight to the ground and find a finish there as well.
Geoff Neal
Neal went through murderers row of the welterweight division, and now gets Medic who has a notoriously iffy chin. Neal has a 4 inch reach advantage, by far more quality UFC experience, and I think we will see Geoff knock Uros out and get back on track. He averages over 100 DK points in his wins, and look for another big performance Saturday.
Michel Pereira
I will first state this, I think you need one of these guys in your lineups no matter which side you’re on. Reese almost got KO’d first round last fight out, and has questionable fight IQ, and Pereira has shown us he can be an absolute monster, he just has been on a skid since getting fucking throttled by Fluffy in a main event. He is the more talented of the two, with better power, but he is coming off a weird quick KO loss to Daukus. This fight should not go the distance, and we should see someone go out cold here.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Punahele Soriano
In 5 of his 6 wins in the UFC, he has scored 118 or more DK points. That is insane upside at this price point, against someone who does not have great takedown defense and has a very low offensive output. Soriano has shown he has power with a KO first round win 2 fights ago, and has a fight with 4 takedowns and 13 minutes of control with 163 strikes, and another fight with 5 takedowns and 11 minutes of control where he landed 331 strikes book ending the 3 fight win streak. Massive upside here.
Serghei Spivac
Ironically they are both coming off losses to Waldo Costa-Cortez, but Spivac has legit only lost to the top ranked fighters in this division, whereas Delija has fought twice and beat Tybura and then got KO’d by Waldo after he thought he won but it was ruled an eye poke. I think this is a very close fight, and I would rather side with the UFC veteran who has fought the best of the best instead of relying on someone who’s only claim to fame is he trains with Aspinall.
Dan Ige
Costa is on a nice win streak here, and Ige is 5 years older and 2-3 in his last 5 fights. Besides the Freire loss, his losses have come against guys ranked inside the top of the featherweight division. He has nasty power in his hands, and I think we will see 50K look for a big knockout and change his nickname to 100K to keep up with the bonuses after he earns one Saturday night.
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