We are heading to Jersey for one of the biggest cards of the year. We have the showdown for the middleweight belt between khamzat and Strickland, and the flyweight title on the line for Van against Taira. Top to bottom this card should be very fun and have some great fights.
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$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Khamzat Chimaev
I do not like him very much personally, but the guy is going to score a ton of points against Strickland. Everyone saying Sean’s Takedown Defense is underrated and wrestling is better than you’d think, but that is what was said about DDP who wrestled Sean to the ground. Chimaev also hates Strickland for all the trash talk, so I think we will see him chain wrestle Sean into submission but instead of trying to find a choke he will ground and pound him en route to a monster DK score.
Ateba Gautier
Diaz will be the best fighter Ateba has faced, but the dude is such an electric prospect with insane power in his hands. He has 5 knockdowns in his 4 UFC fights, had 2 last time out but could not find the finish so he scored poorly, but he is 11 years younger, has the reach advantage, and the likely wrestling advantage so I will take him to find another finish here and score 100+.
Pat Sabbatini
Gomis has shown he can get taken down and controlled, and that is exactly what Pat is going to do in this fight. He averages 4.5 takedowns per fight, looks for submissions, and I think we will see him get to the hips and drag Gomis down time and time again until he finds a finish.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Marco Tulio
This is a pretty tough fight to pick, because I like them both and their styles. Tulio averages 2.2 more significant strikes per minute, a little better significant strike defense by 7%, but if Kopylov decides to wrestle at all, Tulio does not have good takedown defense. I think this will primarily be a kickboxing fight here, but I will side with Tulio to find a finish.
Tatsuro Taira
This is a huge clash of styles, and everyone who thought Van was going to be Pantoja is taking him here again and talking trash about Taira can’t do anything but wrestle. Taira will be the best wrestler he has faced, and I think he will be able to hold Van down while searching for submissions. If it stays on the feet Van will piece him up, but Taira has a 5 inch reach advantage, 2 inches in height, and I think he will end up in the realm of like 8 takedowns and finds a championship round finish here.
Yaroslav Amosov
To stay on brand, this is another clash of wrestler vs striker where Amosov will look to get Alvarez to the ground and find another Anaconda choke, while trying to not get KO’d by Joel. Alvarez is live for a knockout finish, so I think you want some of this fight no matter which way you lean as both look good for a finish in their respective methods of fighting, but I like the wrestling upside to rack up takedowns, control time, and big points.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Joaquin Buckley
If Brady cannot smother Buckley and hold him down, he will get KO’d here. Joaquin is way more explosive and powerful in the striking, he has a 4 inch reach advantage, and I think we will see Brady run into the same issue he had with Belal where the wrestling is mitigated by his opponent being solid in that department and then he gets caught on the feet. I am not expecting as poor of a showing as he had against Morales, but I think we see Buckley put him to sleep.
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Big fight in the division here, whoever wins would be pressing to be next in line (depending on Aspinal’s eye) to fight the winner at the whitehouse card between Gane and Pereira. I think we see Waldo be the better athlete and striker here, and maybe even implement some wrestling like he did against Despaigne. Voklov got taken down at will by Almeida, but he is an elite wrestler and Acosta is just above average, but the fight overall is very close in metrics so I will take Salsa boy to pull the upset here, but if it goes to decision it very well could be a winner who scores 50 points or less.
Clayton Carpenter
Ochoa is good, but he has had quite the tough intro to the UFC with who his opponents have been, and now he gets a pressure wrestling maniac in Carpenter who will be on his hips and trying to drag him down the entire fight. Ochoa will have the better striking, but I think Clayton will keep him neutralized with his wrestling and find a bunch of takedowns and control time en route to a decision win that he scores like 90 in.
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