We have reached the final PPV of the year, and hopefully ever for the UFC, as we reach UFC 323 which is the last PPV of their ESPN contract before moving to Paramount in January. We have a rematch of The Machine Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan for the bantamweight title, and Pantoja vs the up and coming young stud Joshua Van for the flyweight title. We also have what looks to be a title contender eliminator for the flyweights with Moreno vs Taira, what should be Cejudo’s retirement fight against Talbott, and a rare Jan Blacowicz sighting in a matchup of ranked light heavyweights. It should be a fun card all the way through, so let’s dive in.
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$9,000+ PRICE POINT
MANSUR ABDUL-MALIK
He looked god awful last fight, but I am going to chalk that up to a big time learning curve to realize he is not going to just run through people with ease. He has amazing KO power, and Trocoli is pretty damn bad. Trocoli averages 1.2 significant strikes per minute and not even a takedown per fight. This means at that pace if the fight went 15 minutes he would not even land 20 significant strikes…This is a highlight reel KO get right spot for Mansur.
MERAB DVALISHVILI
We have a rematch where Merab scored 168 DK points in their last fight, he is coming off scoring 219.5 points against Sandhagen. He averages 125.5 DK points, over 2 takedowns per round and we get 5 rounds from him. He is just relentless, and I think we see more of the same here from him en route to a monster DK score and win by decision, unless he finds a late finish when he has Yan completely gassed.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
IWO BARANIEWSKI
Here we are taking another one of the undefeated prospects making their debut against someone with UFC experience….but man Ibo has not looked good his last 2 fights, and his best performance is against the sacrificial lamb that is Cerqueira. Iwo will be looking to knock his block off, so this fight is probably one where you want action on either side but I am siding with the favorite.
MAYCEE BARBER
This will probably come down to which of them can get their offensive wrestling going the best/fastest here. Silva has a porous 11% takedowns defense, while Barber is only 53% but that is literally almost 5X better. Barber nearly doubles Karine’s output on the feet, and has won 6 UFC fights in a row. I think she has more ways to win here than Karine, and can outpoint her for 2 of the 3 rounds if need be.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
BOGDAN GUSKOV
Jan is 9 years older at 42, never fights anymore, and is 1-3-1 in his last 5. Bogdan is 4-1 in his last 5, averages almost a strike more per minute on the feet and I think we see Jan lay his gloves down in the middle of the cage after he gets finished here.
MANUEL TORRES
Torres is a killer on the feet with crazy KO power, but Dawson is a very very good fighter. Torres will push the pace on the feet, and sports an 88% takedown defense to combat the almost 4 takedowns per fight that Dawson averages. Torres averages a crazy 7.87 significant strikes per minute and also 2 takedowns per fight of his own, so with the big KO upside I will take the dog here.
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