Back in action this week for UFC 319. I am so freaking stoked for this card, as I am a huge DDP fan and am very excited to see him test his skills against Khamzat. Everyone seemingly has the same talking point of if Dricus can survive early he will take over in the later rounds as Khamzat fades, but I hope we see him starch Khamzat after making him cry at the press conference like he has so many other opponents. The co-main is interesting because we get big time prospect Aaron Pico making his debut against the undefeated and surging up the ranks Lerone Murphy. There is a very big stylistic difference here and I was really hoping for the salary to be Murphy in the mid 7k’s instead of the 8200-8000 fight.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Wednesday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Please be aware that these plays are subject to change as the week goes on. You can unlock my Saturday Morning Slate Sleuth article that contains my exact plays, and access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools available with Premium Membership – Click Here To Join – Use code ‘ADP’ for 10% off your first month!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
CHASE HOOPER
Hooper has been super impressive over his last few fights going 5-0 and comes into this one 7 years younger, 2 inch reach advantage, and has a higher output both on the feet and in the takedowns per fight also, and we have seen how elite his BJJ can be. He is better anywhere this fight goes and should find a finish in the first two rounds en route to a nice DK score.
CARLOS PRATES
I am a little hesitant on this one, but I think Prates will learn from his mistakes against Garry and push the pace against Neal here and find an early finish. He will have the reach advantage, has the power advantage, and is much better defensively blocking strikes. I don’t think we see any takedowns here, but maybe some clinch work and control against the fence while he looks for a finish.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
KARINE SILVA
Averages a takedown per round and is fighting against someone who is sitting at a 43% takedown defense. Silva’s output on the feet is higher by over a strike per minute, she has the advantage in the wrestling and grappling and should be able to bully her way to a win and a nice DK score here, especially since she sports a 94% finish rate as a professional.
DIEGO FERREIRA
Two old men being thrown against one another in what legit could be a retirement fight for either of them after a loss, particularly King Green who has been finished in his last couple fights including the vicious kick to the head KO last time out against Ruffy. Ferreira has a 3 inch reach advantage, has shown the knack for finding subs and although he is the older fighter, he seems to have a little less damage taken in the last couple years as opposed to Green who just has gotten the shit beat out of him in most of his fights.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
DRICUS DU PLESSIS
Not many people survive the first round against Khamzat. He is undefeated, a monster with his wrestling and grappling, and is just a beast of a fighter. DDP is awkward, but he lands at a clip of over 6 significant strikes per minute, averages a takedown per round, is 9-0 in the UFC and has gone through 5 round fights and come out the other side. The surgery to fix his nasal cavity to help him breathe has been a big part of his cardio being so good after it was a question mark to start. I think Dricus is similar to Paddy the Baddy where people just continuously underestimate him and pick against him. If we get through the later rounds I think we see Dricus find a finish.
TIM ELLIOT
Tim just will have to be careful on the feet and not get caught while he finds the right spot to initiate grappling and get Kai to the ground. Pantoja showed the route to beating Asakura, and Elliot averages over a takedown per round so we know where this fight will be going. The price savings is elite here and at his salary any win with his style should make him optimal.
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