PFL is hosting another finals card on the same weekend as UFC 319. This Friday, ESPN at 06:30 PM ET.
GADZHI RABADANOV (26-4-2) vs. ALFIE DAVIS (19-5-1) – Lightweight Championship
Davis has had a great run, he is a Wonderboy type striker with legit accolades and a couple huge recent wins. Rabadanov continues to prove that he is one of the best lightweights in the world though and aside from a KO out of nowhere I think Rabadanov is fine here. He can box very well and has been finding finishes recently with it, but I think he comes out here with a wrestling game plan.
Pick: Gadzhi Rabadanov by KO/TKO. High confidence.
LIZ CARMOUCHE (24-8) vs. JENA BISHOP (9-2) – Women's Flyweight Championship
This is a big upset and a total opposite to what I usually would do as I have been picking Carmouche to win fights for years. But she is 41 years old now and she typically struggles in this style of match up. Against bigger grapplers, she can get taken down and controlled such as her vs. Kana Watanabe and her vs. DeAnna Bennett. I do think Carmouche is the more skilled MMA fighter and by far the better striker but swhe is going to give up size in the fight against a former BJJ world champion. I am worried about Bishop's cardio because it is quite bad but if she can get take downs and find control she should be able to win a few rounds as a huge dog here.
Pick: Jena Bishop by decision. Very low confidence.
MARCIRLEY ALVES (14-4) vs. JUSTIN WETZELL (12-2) – Bantamweight Championship
Marcirley Alves has impressed me a lot this season. He is a tiny bantamweight but has crazy power for the weight class. His take down defense hasn't looked great in the past against Savarjon Khamidov, but he has shown good defense in his PFL fights this year. Wetzell is a striker as well but he definitely has some offensive wrestling skills as well. It will be interesting to see if he does wrestle a lot here as I am expecting a big size advantage for him here. I think as long as the fight is on the feet Alves is going to be landing big, he has some huge moments against Jake Hadley.
Pick: Marcirley Alves by KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.
MADS BURNELL (20-7) vs. ROBERT WATLEY (15-3) – Lightweight
Watley is a big lightweight wrestler, but I think he lacks striking threats to make his grappling super threatening. Mads Burnell is a former featherweight and he has looked really bad since moving up to lightweight. I don't love the fight for him but as long as the fight stays on the feet Burnell is the better striker.
Pick: Mads Burnell by decision.
JULIANA VELASQUEZ (13-4) vs. EKATERINA SHAKALOVA (9-3) – Women's Flyweight
Velasquez is on an awful run since losing her Bellator belt. She has fought Carmouche 3 times in a row and is now about to fight Shakalova 2 times in a row. She lost embarrassingly against Shakalova in the last fight and although I'd be surprised to see the same thing again, Velasquez clearly has shown a big lack of grappling which Shakalova will try exploit again.
Pick: Ekaterina Shakalova by submission. Medium confidence.
BIAGGIO ALI WALSH (2-1) vs. ADRYAN GRUNDY (3-1) – Lightweight
Pick: Biaggio Ali Walsh by KO/TKO. Unknown levels of confidence.
SABRINNA DE SOUSA (3-0) vs. SARAY OROZCO (8-7) – Women's Flyweight
de Sousa is legit.
Pick: Sabrinna de Sousa by submission. High confidence.
RENAT KHAVALOV (9-0) vs. VILSON NDREGJONI (11-4) – Bantamweight
I do think Khavalov is legit. Ndregjoni is a powerful striker but he is chinny and I think Khavalov can take him down.
Pick: Renat Khavalov by decision. Medium confidence.
KENDLY ST. LOUIS (11-4) vs. CHRIS MIXAN (6-1) – Welterweight
Wrestler vs. striker fight. Mixan is a boxer who is coming off a big win over former DWCS fighter Joey Hart by KO. I think St. Louis can get his wrestling going though he's been hanging around PFL for years now.
Pick: Kendly St. Louis by decision. Low confidence.
