PFL Road to Dubai Champions Series: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes Full Card Predictions

There is no UFC this weekend, but there is going to be a huge PFL card headlined by an iconic rivalry. This card was once scheduled to be Bellator's final event, but recently the PFL announced that the brand was going to now be merged under the PFL banner entirely. I genuinely don't know what the ‘Road to Dubai Champions Series' is, but this is going to be a fun card with some of PFL and Bellator's best. The card will be broadcast on Saturday 25th January at 10:30 AM ET, available to watch on ESPN+.

USMAN NURMAGOMEDOV (18-0) vs. PAUL HUGHES (13-1) – Bellator Lightweight Championship

Paul Hughes is coming off the biggest win of his career where he upset AJ McKee by decision. In that fight he showcased solid wrestling and great take down defense, but the story of the fight was in his striking. The first round ended with Hughes dropping McKee with a right hook just moments before the bell sounded. After the first round the action did decrease but Hughes mostly controlled the action with his defense and better striking. This is his biggest test by far as Usman Nurmagomedov has looked nearly untouchable so far. He has great wrestling but the most impressive part of his game is his striking. He mostly throws kicks from range and very reguarly targets the head and body. His wrestling is so good that he doesn't need to worry about a potential take down, a showcased against Alexander Shabily who couldn't get any momentum in that fight as his take downs were constantly defended and Usman was beating him on the feet. This fight has of course brought back the major rivalry that was Khabib vs. Conor, but it seems as though PFL has failed to capitlize on the hype that this fight could have had. This is a massive fight for PFL as two of their biggest names are fighting each other with bad blood, backed by either Khabib Nurmagomedov or Conor McGregor. Hughes will always have a chance in this fight as he does have great accuracy to go along with his powerful boxing, but I think that's his best chance. When Usman wrestles he typically dominates in controlling positions. Hughes' take down defense was very impressive against AJ McKee, but McKee is a very small lightweight who is significantly smaller than Usman and in my opinion a lesser wrestler. An upset would certainly make things exciting but I do think the big favourite Usman Nurmagomedov is able to defend his belt again, and maybe for the final time.

Pick: Usman Nurmagomedov by decision. Medium-high confidence.

VADIM NEMKOV (18-2) vs. TIM JOHNSON (18-10) – Heavyweight

This is really odd match making, but Johnson has stepped up on short notice. Nemkov is a former champion of Bellator at light heavyweight where he defended the belt four times. He moved up to heavyweight for the 2024 PFL season but never ended up fighting. The win that he did get at heavyweight is a submission win over former champion Bruno Capelozza. Tim Johnson is 39 years old, was cut from Bellator in 2023, and was only signed to the PFL again as he fought Danilo Marques on 2 weeks notice in what was an odd fight with a “double knockdown” as Johnson dropped Marques while Marques was kicking him in the balls. In his last fight, Goltsov took him and down and he had absolutely nothing to offer off of his back and Goltsov was able to ground and pound him very easily. Nemkov should take him down and do the same.

Pick: Vadim Nemkov by KO/TKO or submission in round 1. High confidence.

NATHAN KELLY (11-2) vs. AKHMED MAGOMEDOV (10-1) – Featherweight

Nathan Kelly is a fighter the PFL has tried to push for a couple of years now – He was the main event of PFL Europe 4 despite not being in a title fight. So far he has looked good being a quick finisher, with his last 3 wins coming in the first round. He is quite tall and lanky and uses his size well, fighting from range on the feet. Most of his success comes form his grappling though as he is very aggressive with submission attempts. So far he has been given favorable match ups and Magomedov will be his toughest test by far. Magomedov hasn't fought for nearly two years since he lost to Henry Corrales. Magomedov is a wrestler who constantly shoots for take downs, but he couldn't get them against Corrales and he gassed out pretty bad. On the feet he doesn't have much to offer at all as he just looks to pressure without throwing any strikes. This is a tough fight to call as Magomedov almost definitely will get take downs here. Kelly's take down defense is unknown and now he is fighting a decent wrestler. But it is also worth noting that Magomedov accepted this fight on short notice, and given his inacticity it is hard to tell how he will look.

Pick: Nathan Kelly to win by submission. Low confidence.

IBRAGIM IBRAGIMOV (8-0) vs. KENNY MOKHONOANA (5-1) – Featherweight

Ibragim is a prospect to watch out for as he is only 20 years old and has a 15-0 combined amateur and professional record. Admittedly his fights aren't very exciting as his fighting style really is to shoot take downs often and control on top. Kenny is a good prospect himself with his only loss coming to Josh O'Connor who is now a 9-0 prospect himself. But in that fight Kenny was taken down by Josh pretty often and somehwat easily. He is a grappler himself with long limbs and defensive submissions but I think this is a good match up for Ibragim given the questionable take down defense of Kenny.

Pick: Ibragim Ibragimov by decision. Medium-high confidence.

RENAT KHAVALOV (8-0) vs. CLEIVER FERNANDES (9-1) – Bantamweight

Khavalov is a huge signing for Bellator as he is an incredible talent. He was an Eagle FC champion where he defended the belt 4 times, 3 of those defenses coming against undefeated opponents. His most recent Eagle FC defense was against Renat Ondar where has was able to show case his striking which is pretty solid. He mostly boxes with a high guard and regularly throws hooks. The wrestling is where he looks best. He is a huge bantamweight and once he gets take downs he throws brutal ground and pound. He fought Japanese wrestler Hikaru Yoshino, and in that fight he has to defend multiple take downs attempts in the first round. Once he gained control in the second round he gave Yoshino no chance of escaping and finished him with strikes. Cleiver Fernandes is the Shooto Brasil champion. He is also a grappler. On the feet he marches forwards with his hands up and boxes, similarly to Khavalov. His take downs don't look that great though as I have seen them defended by multiple opponents. His title win was impressive as it was between two grapplers who decided to strike and his opponent reminded me of Carlos Prates which was fun. He mostly won that fight with his cardio though as his opponent was completely gassed in round 3. I find it hard to think that Fernandes can pull off the upset. Khavalov is a very talented prospect and I am disappointed the UFC didn't sign him.

Pick: Renat Khavalov by KO/TKO. High confidence.

YAKUB SULIMANOV (7-0) vs. JARRAH HUSSEIN AL-SILAWI (20-7) – Middleweight

I genuienly couldn't believe how much Sulimanov reminded me of Chimaev. I looked in to it and discovered that him and Chimaev are training partners and appear to be friends as well. He is massive for this weight class and that size will help him as he fights a former welterweight. Despite knowing Chimaev, Sulimanov is no where near as good. He is very slow on the feet and seems to have no striking defense whatsoever. I strongly dislike the fact that he doesn't shoot for take downs very often despite the fact that that is the best part of his game. Jarrah is a fighter was once very good, but has looked terrible recently. He was meant to be the face of the PFL's expansion to the Middle East (PFL MENA) but he just hasn't looked good – at all. Ever since Magomed Umalatov knocked him out his career has gone down hill and his chin is long gone. It is pretty sad to see as he genuinely was a talented fighter with decent wins on his record. He is now moving up to middleweight and I don't mind the move. This fight is genuinely tough to pick. I wasn't impressed at all by Yakub. Jarrah is going to be the more skilled striker by far, but as I stated earlier the chin is long gone and his confidence looks gone as well. I am picking Yakub as he should wrestle and he might even KO Jarrah. I am not confident in this fight at all and I don't know understand why the odds are so wide.

Pick: Yakub Sulimanov by KO/TKO. Very low confidence.

TAREK SULEIMAN (13-8) vs. AHMED SAMI (11-4) – Middleweight

This is a pretty low level middle weight fight between two wrestlers with bad cardio. Suleiman is the much slower fighter of the two on the feet so I will fade him in case the wrestling cancels out but Sami isn't very impressive on the feet himself.

Pick: Ahmed Sami by decision. Low confidence.

MIRAFZAL AKHTAMOV  (7-0) vs. MIKE THOMPSON (7-2) – Lightweight

The odds for this fight are incredibly wide but after looking into it this is a set up for Akhtamov. Akhtamov is a huge guy for this weight class. He is a very patient striker with a kickboxing background where he was a national champion in the UAE. Mike Thompson has a very padded record and watching his fights he just runs forwards with his chin up in the air looking to brawl. I don't see that working against a powerful guy in Akhmatov.

Pick: Mirafzal Akhtamov by KO/TKO in round 1. High confidence.

HADI OMAR AL HUSSAINI (5-1-1) vs. RUEL PANALES (5-2) – Flyweight

Ruel Panales is a decent striker but he has no grappling at all. Hussaini constantly shoots take downs but isn't a great striker himself. I am going with Hussaini here just because of the wrestling, but he is a small flyweight himself. Of all the big underdogs on this card, Panales probabaly has the best chance as he might close at +300.

Pick: Hadi Omar Al Hussaini by decision. Low confidence.

JOHN MITCHELL (9-2) vs. SOUHIL TAIRI (7-5-1) – Lightweight

John Mitchell has a strong wrestling base but his striking has developed a lot over time so now he can do both. Tairi is mostly a striker but honestly I don't think he will be the better striker in this match up. So I like Mitchell as he has options in the striking and the grappling.

Pick: John Mitchell by decision. Medium-high confidence.

MOSTAFA ABADA RASHED NEDA (9-3) vs. HAIDER KHAN (8-1) – Middleweight

Mostafa Rashed Neda is the Saudi Arabia national champion in Kung Fu. He is a short middleweight but he doesn't look small for 185. Khan will be much bigger than him though as he is a big middleweight. Khan has a very padded record as most of his wins are over guys who clearly don't know how to grapple. He did recently go to war with a 4-4 opponent which was a fun watch but also concerning. He looks comfortable on the feet but he is sloppy and hittable. If he gets the take downs it could be interesting but Mostafa has shown good take down defense so far in the PFL and on the regional scene.

Pick: Mostafa Abada Rashed Neda by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.

Artem MMA

Artem MMA

A big fan of MMA, Artem covers the sport from regional shows to UFC and Bellator. With a passion for prospects, his YouTube channel and Instagram are sources for news about Dana White’s Contender Series and Road to UFC. Make sure to check out his latest videos under the media menu!