This is a stacked PFL card taking place this FRIDAY night at 04:00 PM ET on ESPN. PFL has been making some incredible additions to their roster, so give it a few events and we will start to see some stars emerge in one of the biggest promotions in MMA. I am worried about cancelations, because if there are any I won't be able to update the article due to me visiting family this week.
USMAN NURMAGOMEDOV (21-0) vs. ARCHIE COLGAN (13-0) – Lightweight Championship
This is a great test for Usman as Archie Colgan is one of the best lightweights on the PFL roster he hasn't fought yet. Colgan has a wrestling base which he uses to take his opponents down against the cage and control. He doesn't win many fights by finish, but that is a testament to the competition he has fought in my opinion. Although his ground and pound isn't powerful enough to be fight ending, he can put his opponents in some trouble when he finds openings for elbows. He has been tested against all sorts of opponents, recently defeating strong BJJ grappler Jay Jay Wilson, and before that he beat powerful UFC striker Manoel Sousa. I actually think Colgan's striking is pretty good, but that may be because he is a boxer and I do have a bias towards that striking style. With that said, he has had some stand out performances on the feet where he defeated pure boxer Justin Montalvo by KO, and has his own striking moments early against Sousa. There is some concern about his cardio as he has never fought for 5 rounds, and he did let Sousa in to their fight late in the 3rd round. Usman Nurmagomedov is one of the best fighters out of the Nurmagomedov camp, and he is a better striker than grappler as well. He can use his wrestling to get wins but in a few of his title defense for Bellator and PFL it has been his opponents trying to take him down. On the feet he strikes from range where he throws a lot of kicks to all 3 levels. He can be low volume at times and can make his fights boring by just point fighting his opponents on the feet. That is likely what happens here as he is going to be the better striker in this fight and he should be able to defend the take downs from Colgan. Usman has proven that he can fight 5 rounds many times so as long as the fight gets extended his chances of winning the fight will increase as well. Decision is most likely but if Colgan fails at getting a lot of take downs I could see him gassing out and getting finished late too.
Pick: Usman Nurmagomedov by decision or round 4/5 finish. Medium-high confidence.
DAKOTA DITCHEVA (15-0) vs. DENISE KIELHOLTZ (9-5) – Women's Flyweight
There isn't much to break down here. Kielholtz is a former Bellator Kickboxing world champion and for that reason the fight could be fun. But also for that reason it is a good fight for Ditcheva.
Pick: Dakota Ditcheva by KO/TKO in round 1 or 2. High confidence.
DOVLET YAGSHIMURADOV (26-8-1) vs. SIMEON POWELL (12-2) – Light Heavyweight
If Dovlet didn't fight Tyson Pedro I would feel a lot better about picking him to win this fight. In that fight Dovlet did win a decision but he spent a lot of the fight fighting Pedro from range instead of using his pressure heavy style to throw heavy in the pocket. He got hurt by Pedro in that fight as well which is a terrible look. Dovlet is a 5'11” pressure boxer who mostly closes the distance with hooks before clinching, and further dirty boxing. I never considered him to be one of the best light heavyweights PFL had but he did well to prove me wrong by winning the PFL tournament in 2024. When PFL was starting up Powell was one of their first fighters who had star potential, and they did well to capitalize on this by giving him main card and main event positions for PFL Europe. The problem is that Powell never developed his skills to be a world class fighter. He has big power on a 6'5″ frame and a 85″ inch reach, but he never used this well. Most of his offense comes from him crashing the pocket and even then he can get hit easily. He has a bad chin and can get backed up too. He has the power to KO Dovlet at any time but as long as Dovlet is pressuring forwards he should be in control. I think eventually Dovlet will be able to break down Powell and win by later finish, or maybe even a decision if Dovlet isn't aggressive.
Pick: Dovlet Yagshimuradov by KO in round 2 or 3. Low-medium confidence.
AMRU MAGOMEDOV (9-0) vs. ANGEL ALVAREZ (11-2) – Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov is heavily rumoured to sign with the UFC when his PFL contract ends, so Khabib's team is obviously setting up Amru to be their next representative in the PFL. He made his PFL debut against Kolton Englund where he hurt him with a body kick and immediately won with ground and pound. He will be tested here but I expect him to win pretty easily again. Angel Alvarez is a wreslter himself but he never really uses it. On the feet he has a lot of power but once again, he doesn't really use it. He likes to throw combinations before taking a break, and then throwing again. Amru's striking is quite good and his wreslting is even better. I am quite confident we will see another great performance.
Pick: Amru Magoemdov by KO/TKO or submission in round 1 or 2. High confidence.
RAUFEON STOTS (21-4) vs. LAZARO DAYRON (10-0-1) – Bantamweight
This is a huge step up for Dayron as Stots was a mainstay of the Bellator rankings for years, holding the Bellator title in 2022. The issue with Stots now is that he is 37 years old and his athleticism has clearly regressed. He is no longer the scary wrestling threat he once was. He is struggling more to get takedowns now that he has in his career, and now he is fighting a really good wrestler in Dayron. On the feet, Stots doesn't have much to offer either aside from some boxing. Dayron is not a good striker himself but he has enough power to earn his opponents respect. His defensive wrestling has been tested by an elite wrestler too in Danny Sabatello who is proving to be too good for RIZIN's bantamweight division. In this one I am confident that Dayron will be able to defend Stots' take downs and he may even get his own. This fight will likely go the distance as well.
Pick: Lazaro Dayron by decision. Low confidence.
DAVID MARTINEZ (17-6) vs. OMAR EL DAFRAWY (15-6-1) – Welterweight
Very low confidence here as David Martinez is a grinder. He pressures a lot and works hard in the clinch. The problem I have with Martinez is I don't think his striking defense is good, and El Dafrawy is very good at striking. I have always descirbed him as the Egyptian Carlos Prates and so far he has been a good winner for my picks as he won the title for PFL MENA and is 5-1 under the PFL banner. On top of that El Dafrawy has won as an underdog many times. If the fight is at range I like his chances at getting a KO win.
Pick: Omar El Dafrawy by KO/TKO in round 1. Low confidence.
SEAN GAUCI (11-1) vs. ALLAN BEGOSSO (10-4-1) – Bantamweight
Gauci should win this with his boxing as he will throw much more volume. Begosso doesn't really do anything on the feet and if he can't get the take downs he will be losing.
Pick: Sean Gauci by decision. Medium confidence.
MOUSTAPHA DIAKHATE (5-0-1) vs. ZACH NISHIMWE (4-0) – Light Heavyweight
Very clear lay up for Diakhate here. He will have a massive height and reach advantage, and experience over much better competition. He may be someone PFL uses to build at PFL Africa if he gets a big win here.
Pick: Moustapha Diakhate by KO/TKO in round 1. High confidence.
JAMELLE JONES (15-8) vs. KHABIB NABIEV (12-0) – Light Heavyweight
I didn't know Jones was still fighting. Nabiev isn't that good but he's a decent wrestler and once he gets on top his opponents don't get back up. Jones is a wrestler himself but was never that good when he fought for Bellator.
Pick: Khabib Nabiev by KO/TKO in round 1. Medium confidence.
