We head into week 4 with the injury bug having hit a few teams, but we have some really good spots. The chalk of the week is the jags and bengals game, then it’s fairly spread out after that.
QUARTERBACKS
Trevor Lawrence – $6000 – 14%
Chalk of the week for QB in the chalkiest stack. It makes sense with the high over under and their tendency to throw the ball around the goal line also. Bengals D just let Rodgers torch them, so with his price point he is in line to hit value very easily.
Jordan Love – $5800 – 2%
This is a super low owned pivot to a QB who has no help from the run game, and faces a Bucs D with the worst pass rush rate of any team in the league. He is elite in clean pockets, and against the blitz has put up big numbers this season also. If this game stays competitive we could see him throw for 300 and 3 TD’s and nuke at low ownership
Jacoby Brissett – $5000 – 4%
Always underappreciated, he has two big weeks already and in a game that’s projected to stay close he is going to be a nice cheap option. We have seen him pepper McBride and Wilson the last 10 weeks they have played together, and last week he found Love for a TD and rushed for one. High upside against a mediocre giants defense who lost their best pass rusher for the season.
RUNNINGBACKS
Derrick Henry – $8400 – 8%
If he really is under 10% owned because people would rather play Aaron Jones or Chase Brown, this may be the best play on the slate combining ceiling with ownership. He has run for 2 TD’s multiple games so far this season, and faces his old team who they should beat the shit out of. He is -275 for 1 TD and -300 for 80 yards rushing. This has the classic King Henry 150-3 TD game written all over it.
Christian McCaffrey- $7700 – 28%
With Evans banged up he will get more receptions than he already does, so you have the 70 yard rushing he is projected for, 5 catches and around 45 yards and he is -170 to score a TD. That is 22 points if he does not exceed those against a Broncos D that has been able to run on.
Jeremiah Love – $5800 – 26%
Was hoping more of his ownership would go to Aaron Jones, but he is chalky for good reason. Giants have been gouged by RBs and he has started to get incorporated into the passing game also. I think we see a big week for him, like 130 all purpose yards and a TD or 2.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Ja’Marr Chase $8100 – 21%
In the chalkiest game of the week, he is the best run back for a Jags stack as he is projected for 8 catches for 100 yards and if he scores he will be 3X, and his ceiling is as higher than anyone not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he is 1000 cheaper than JSN so that is why he is here instead.
Parker Washington – $6500 – 23%
Another popular play, but he is looking like a floor of 6 catches for 70 yards and scoring a TD looks like a very real possibility here. If it is a shootout, than his chances of a 8-100-1 game are very likely and he smashes his price tag.
Makai Lemon – $4100 – 4%
Pivot from his teammate Wicks who will be 4X the ownership, I will take the guy who McDuffie should not be on and was wide open multiple times last week where Hurts missed him. I think he should be in line for something like 6 catches for 60 yards, and if he scores that’s a huge bonus, but I think a 3-4X day is in line for Lemon.
TIGHT END
Trey McBride – $6500 – 14%
Dude is going to get 10 targets a game like clockwork, and I think is the best option to pair with Brissett. He should push for a 8-9 catch 100 yard game here and if he scores to go on top of that he will be pushing for the highest scoring TE on the slate.
Travis Kelce- $5000 – 5%
Surprised he is this low owned after the saints just threw 4 TDs to tight ends last week, and he has looked good to start the year. I think the chiefs in general will go overlooked this week, but I like Kelce to have another 5+ catch game and score a TD and smash his price tag.
Tucker Kraft – $4400 – 4%
Very consolidated target tree for Love, and he has not had his smash game yet and we have seen him dominate games in the past. 4% for a guy who’s ceiling is up there with Bowers and McBride seems like a good spot to target, especially since if they get in the red zone the packers cannot run the ball to save their lives.
DST
MIN – $4000 – 26%
Flores is going to blitz the fuck out of Malik here and they will get a bunch of sacks and probably a turnover or two. They are chalk for a very good reason, and it seems hard to imagine them not scoring 12+
LAR – $2600 – 16%
The Eagles offense is very hurt, however they just ruled Aaron Donald out so the pass rush will be down him and Garret.. If they can stack the box and stifle Barkley and make Hurts throw the ball, I like for them to get a handful of sacks and a pick or two.
LAC – $2200 – 1%
Super cheap defense that can force turnovers against a team who cannot run the ball well. Obviously JSN could torch them for 3 TD’s, but for the savings I think they are definitely in play here to get 6-8 points.
