We head into week 1 of NFL with a pretty fun slate overall with a handful of really good games to target. We actually have a few stinkers on the slate, but that is going to happen basically every week. There are a couple very chalky plays this week, but we have seen notoriously in NFL that the chalk gets there most weeks, because the reason it is chalk is that they are good plays. Jahmyr Gibbs and Michael Mayer are going to be the far and away chalkiest plays at their positions, with Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow looking like the chalk of QB and WR.
QUARTERBACKS
Joe Burrow- $6900 – 15%
Burrow is projected the highest owned QB this week, but for good reason as he is in the game with the highest total, the implied team points is 4 TD’s, and the Tampa defense was atrocious against the pass last season and did not take any drastic steps to get better. He has one of the best WR duo’s in Chase and Higgins and an elite RB option out of the backfield also. His floor seems like a 275 yard 2 TD game, which is 19 DK points, and we’ve seen his ceiling be 30+ when they are in a shootout.
Justin Herbert – $6100 – 12%
This is the most interesting team to start the year for me, with the addition of a great offensive coordinator and a healthy O line, this team has some real offensive fire power. He was been a top 10 QB with no help from his line due to his ability to make plays with his feet and fire deep balls, and with Quentin Johnston going deep, Ladd working the middle and an emerging star at RB he should be in line for a big week against a very average Arizona defense.
Tyler Shough- $5600 – 13%
This game should have the fastest pace of any on the slate, and Shough was an absolute fantasy gold mine to end the season last year. He and Kellen Moore seem to work well together, and we have a healthy Olave, Juwan Johnson, and new addition Travis Etienne to help out. The Detroit defense is shit, their starting safeties are out, and their best CB from last season got arrested and cut while facing multiple felonies. His ownership has steadily climbed throughout the week and this went from a really sneaky play to being a top 4 owned QB on the slate, but the price point is so cheap with the upside it is hard not to like.
RUNNINGBACKS
Jahmyr Gibbs – $8000 – 41%
Gibbs is an absolute stud, and David Montgomery left in the offseason, and the newly signed Isiah Pacheco is out to start the season. He is -375 to score a TD, has elite upside in the passing game as well as his reception prop is 5, and his yardage prop for rushing is nearly 90 yards. This means he is expected to have a minimum of 20 DK points which is why he is so high owned, but worth it. I expect him to push 60% owned in higher dollar contests.
Omarion Hampton – $6800- 17%
I touched on it briefly with Herbert in the write up, but Hampton is fully healthy and has an elite offensive coordinator who game planned to get the ball in his stud RB’s hands via rushes and receptions in Miami, and I expect the same to happen with Hampton. He is pushing -180 for a TD, receiving prop is 2 and yardage prop is in the 70’s so I think we see him pummel the AZ defense and anything in the goal line situations should yield a TD, if not 2 for him.
Bucky Irving – $5700- 9%
Super up and down season last year, but Sean Tucker is out so it’ll be just Bucky and Kenneth Gainwell garnering meaningful snaps in the backfield. He is an explosive runner and should be involved in the passing game as well. Mike Evans left so while the WR will get some more targets, it should benefit Bucky and they are projected to score 24 points which means he has a good chance to smash his salary here.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Ja’marr Chase – $7800 – 29%
Just an elite WR who gets a terrible defense like I wrote about in the Burrow write up. He is – odds to get 90 yards receiving, his prop for receptions is 8 and he is one of the WR in the NFL who can score on any play. The upside is there, but I think I only play him in cash or with a Burrow stack here.
Garrett Wilson – $5800 – 9%
Geno is….not a great QB but Wilson is clearly the #1 target for the team and the Tennessee defense is not good. Wilson has put up numbers with QB’s who struggle to throw the ball, and Geno can at least let it fly. He is projected for 5 catches and around 70 yards, and if he can score he easily pays off his salary.
Tre Tucker – $4000 – 17%
He sneakily had an elite target share on his route runs last year, and with Bowers out he gets a big bump in ownership but he is so damn cheap it does not take much to hit value. Miami may have the worst defense in the entire NFL this season, and as long as the pace is not awful he should be in line to be their top WR this season, and this week he is an elite punt at WR.
TIGHT END
Trey McBride – $6800 – 2%
It is not often we will get him this low owned, but the Chargers historically play TE’s pretty damn tough since they have Derwin James in coverage. We saw McBride put up better fantasy numbers than most teams top WR last season, and with them playing from behind this week he could be in line for one of the higher ceilings of any TE.
Colston Loveland – $5300 – 11%
Loveland is my favorite breakout candidate for TE this season, and he has an elite play caller and very good quarterback who can get him the rock. He is a mismatch nightmare for defenses, and in a game where they are implied to score almost 4 TDs, with DJ Moore being traded, he is a pretty damn good middle of the road salary option. He is implied for 5 catches and 50 yards, which puts him at 2X and if he scores he more than 3X’s and pays off.
Michael Mayer- $2900- 33%
The uber chalk TE play with Bowers being out, it is hard not to just plug and play him. He was amazing in college and has shown a knack for being a playmaker when he actually gets a chance. His reception prop is 5, which in itself is almost 2X his salary so he seemingly is the safest option at TE this week and should be the cash TE without a doubt.
DST
PIT – $3300 – 3%
I bet this over earlier in the week, and then Tua got hurt in practice. Cooper rush is going to be their starting QB, and he suffered back spasms in practice Saturday. The Falcons will be on their QB3 to start the game, and if he goes down it is going to be a long, long day for their offense. Yes they Bijan, London and Pitts, but if the Steelers will get sacks, and likely get a few turnovers.
HOU- $2900 – 3%
This is more a play due to the fact that their pass rush is as elite as it gets in the NFL, they have a good MLB who can spy Allen, and one of the best CB’s in the NFL who will lock up DJ Moore. We have seen Allen turn the ball over when he is pressured, and I think we will see somewhere in the realm of 4 sacks and a turnover, and if they can keep the points off the board they will smash their price tag.
CLE- $2100 – 11%
The Jags have a pretty good offense, but at this price point it is hard not to see them do well. They need 2 sacks and to not give up 28 points and they will pay off. Yes they lost Garrett to the rams, but in that trade they got a good DE back and their defense was solid last season. As long as Watson does not turn it over and put them in bad spots all game they should easily hit value.
