Keep in mind that I am a known wrestle heavy capper. I will usually pick wrestlers and typically put a lot of faith in their ability to dictate where a fight goes. And I was shocked to see Movsar as an almost 3-1 favorite here. I fully get how good of a wrestler he is and that his striking is pretty underrated, but Lerone is definitely the better striker of the two, has solid scrambles and is fighting at home. We'd all love if judges were never biased, but that isn't the reality we live in. Of course and english fighter fighting in front of an english crowd being judged by english judges should get a little boost. Movsar is not dangerous at all so Lerone doesn't have to worry about a rogue power strike or a nasty submission, he just has to do enough on the ground to not be smothered and do what he normally does on his feet. I am not only picking Lerone here, I am betting on him at +220. Only a quarter of a unit because I am kind of a coward, but still confident enough to bet here.

Movsar Evloev

Movsar Evloev is a decision machine. He is a fantastic wrestler who uses his striking really well to setup his takedowns. He keeps his punches long and manages range well. Then he lowers his level and shoots. The adjustments and setups differentiate his wrestling from a lot of others in the division and is why he has 42 takedowns in 9 UFC fights. He is coming off the closer than expected win over Aljamain Sterling.

Lerone Murphy

Lerone Murphy is a very good striker who moves incredibly well. He will light up your body then step completely out of the pocket and move away. His footwork is very good and he is sneaky dangerous on his feet. His takedown defense is listed at 51% which may be a problem here, but he does really well scrambling back up. He is coming off the spinning back fist win over a debuting Aaron Pico.