I was surprised to see a guy who is winless in the UFC be a favorite in this spot but then i went back and rewatched all the tape and understand it. Aswell's pressure is insane. Even on short notice against someone as dangerous as Oki, he was completely undeterred, kept moving forward and did everything he could to try and win that fight. I think that relentless pressure suits him well here. Lucas will likely end up looking for big shots and end up getting hit 3 times for every 1 he lands. Aswell is the pick, lets hope there isn't a homer decision in the mix.

Lucas Almeida

Lucas Almeida is a powerful striker who loves throwing a heavy 1-2. He comes forward and sets up a big right hand. When he senses blood he will literally drop his hands and march forward throwing whatever he needs to to get the finish. His takedown defense is not great at 53% and it's the largest hole in his game. He is coming off the decision loss to Danny Silva where the attempted takedowns threw him out of his rhythm.

Michael Aswell

Michael Aswell is a forward pressure striker who always has a jab out there. He is tough as nails and literally doesn't stop moving forward. His striking defense isn't what you would want it to be, but his offense is so intense, that it doesn't matter. He can grapple as well but its never his plan A. He's a tough guy who stays busy and will make his opponents work. He has had a tough slate so far in the UFC with a Contender Series loss to Bogdan Grad and then a short notice loss to Bolaji Oki where he landed more than 100 significant strikes and took a round.