This really is a card of fights where the winner will likely fight on the Contender Series. There are a lot of fighters on this card who have been on the Contender Series before taking on other prospects. The card is pretty good overall but I would say there are 5 super notable fights on this card you should keep your eye on. LFA 204 is on Saturday night at 09 :00 PM ET.
HUGE CUNHA (8-2) vs. DENZEL FREEMAN (5-1) – Heavyweight Championship
The winner of this fight will definitely be on Contender Series in 2025. Cunha is coming off a pretty loss in his last fight on the show, but that was to Rizvan Kuniev who has been booked to fight Curtis Blaydes. Cunha has a wrestling background and competed at a national level in Brazil. His striking is very low volume and he doesn't seem to commit to anything on the feet. This is a problem as oddly he chooses to not shoot for take downs in some of his fights. He can fight the first round on the feet and then finally choose to wrestle in the later rounds. Denzel Freeman is a former PFL prospect who has now moved to the LFA. He is a wrestler and has very recently competed at a high level in greco-roman. Denzel wrestled in college but became a marine, and then found greco-roman wrestling and competed at a high level from there. He tried to make the USA greco-roman Olympic team, but fell short in his finals match. Denzel's striking isn't amazing but he throws hard and throws more volume than Cunha. He also looks comfortable on the feet whereas Cunha looks lost if the fight is standing. The only concern is that his striking defense was exposed a bit against Asplund, but Cunha isn't a super dangerous striker. I'm going to pick Freeman to eventually find a finish. If he can get top position, his control is very strong and he can land ground and point and look for a submission.
Pick: Denzel Freeman by KO/TKO or submission. Medium confidence.
EDNILSON SANTOS (13-6-1) vs. DYLAN MANTELLO (8-4) – Lightweight
I'm going to guess Santos is the guy UFC may be looking at here, as Mantello has proven that he isn't good enough now with two losses on the Contender Series. Santos looks somewhat unimpressive on paper but he did just defeat former UFC fighter Kamuela Kirk, and he trains with Alex Pereira. That fight with Kirk was very close but I like his style to beat Mantello. He is small for lightweight but he makes up for it with speed. He pressures forward and throws a lot of combinations up close. He was taken down by Kirk a few times in that fight but was able to work his way up every time. Mantello is a striker but he unbelievably slow for this weight class. He's pretty big and uses his length well by fighting from range but every shot comes off laboured and he doesn't react well to getting hit at all. He lost to Kaynan Kruschewsky who is the Artem Lobov of the Fighting Nerds gym, and that loss to Ahmad Hassanzada is going to age very poorly too. Maybe the UFC likes Mantello and they'll bring him back for a third time but I'd be surprised. He could beat Santos by bullying him with his size advantage but Santos' best work is done up close with quick boxing combinations.
Pick: Ednilson Santos by decision or KO/TKO. Low confidence.
JOE GIANNETTI (16-6-1) vs. LEONARD LIMBERGER (16-9) – Lightweight
I am a big fan of Joe Giannetti and have been hoping UFC would bring him back for a long time. Unfortunately it just seems that whenever he gets close he falls short. He was on a 5 fight win streak and then he lost to Michael Dufort, he was on a 2 fight win streak and then he lost to Peter Barrett. The loss to Dufort isn't too bad as he somehow beat Mads Burnell in his next fight for the PFL, but that loss to Barret is a stain on his record. He signed a contract with Karate Combat and proceeded to have a highlight reel KO over the walking concussion Brandon Jenkins in 49 seconds. Joe is a tall, skinny guy at 155 lbs and he does use those tools pretty well. He strikes from range and his BJJ is pretty solid. He has come up short in the past to shorter, stronger lightweights. Limberger is shorter, but I don't think he will be stronger. Limberger has fought at featherweight in the past and there he looked like he was in pretty good shape. His last fight was at 176 lbs and he looked slow and had some loose weight on him, so it will be interesting to see how he looks here. On the feet he likes to brawl and trade shots and it seems like his chin is toast at this point as he's on a terrible run of form lately. Odds are pretty close with Joe being -210 but after looking into Limberger I would be shocked if Joe fumbled this.
Pick: Joe Giannetti by KO/TKO. High confidence.
JUSTIN SUMPTER (11-5) vs. LUIS HENRIQUE BARBOSA (15-9) – Light Heavyweight
Sumpter has been on a tear recently. Of his last 3 wins, 2 have been over former UFC fighters, with the other being over a former Contender Series guy. Luis Henrique Barbosa is a former UFC and KSW fighter so perhaps there is some MMA math to be done there. Henrqiue is a former heavyweight who has come down 205 lbs recently. His career is mostly him beating low level guys, but losing to anyone with a decent skill set. Both guys are grapplers with a lot of submissions in round 1, and both have never been submitted before. I do think Sumpter should win this fight but it will be tough. We have seen him taken down by smaller guys in the past when he lost to Billy Goff, and his chin is a concern. He has 4 wins by KO, and 2 of those came on the Contender Series in 2018 and 2019. Henrique is going to be slower but judging on some of the fights he took in Russia I don't know if he is actually taking his career super seriously.
Pick: Justin Sumpter by submission. Low-Medium confidence.
AN TUAN HO (6-1) vs. JIMI NATIVIDAD (3-4) – Flyweight
An Tuan Ho fought on Contender Series last year but was knocked out quite bad by Lone'er Kavanagh. Despite the loss, many still consider An Tuan Ho to be a prospect to watch out for as he is only 24 years old. He was originally booked against a very tough Mitch Haas (6-0) but that fight was cancelled. Maybe we can get that fight booked for DWCS in 2025. I watched a couple Natividad fights and despite having pretty technical striking, his defense is very weak. Before his loss, An Tuan Ho was a very aggressive striker so hopefully that loss hasn't killed his confidence because he should be able to go out and score a nice KO win here.
Pick: An Tuan Ho by KO/TKO. High confidence.
