This is a fun fight to break down and a meaningful fight for the division. It is fun to break down because of the different narratives that you can jump on. You can call Josh Emmett old and washed, you could call Josh Emmett one of the best on the planet who has only lost to the elite, you can say Youssef has no good wins or you could say Yousseff took a round of of Ilia and both out struck him and out grappled him on the ground. While I think there is truth to all of those statements, at this point in their careers I am leaning on the last narrative, the one the points out Yousseff's road to where he is and his skillset. Youssef's ability to be an outside distance striker or a full blown grappler will suit him well here. Yousseff will be the pick but I am a bit surprised that he is as massive of a favorite as he is at -350.

Josh Emmett

Josh Emmett is a wrestler with legit power in his hands. He has 12 knockdowns in 16 UFC fights and that includes losses. You'll see he averages a little more than one takedown per fight which on the surface is pretty low considering he is such a high level wrestler. The reality is that Josh Emmett is dangerous and has high level experience combined with high level skills. He is coming off the one sided loss to Lerone Murphy where he did decide to wrestle.

Youssef Zalal

Youssef Zalal was cut from the UFC in 2023 after a tough slate and has since come back as a completely different fighter. He is a high IQ guy that can be a low volume distance striker with incredible defense, or an aggressive grappler with tricky submissions. He is only hit with 1.80 signifigant strikes per minute, which considering he has 7 decisions in the UFC is an incredible stat. He is coming off the decision win over Calvin Kattar where he locked in the first two rounds before running in the third.