Joel Alvarez is 10x the striker in this matchup, the problem is, he has no ability to keep this fight standing. Like literally none. The stats show his takedown defense is less than 50%, but I promise you, its far worse than that. He defended a handful of half unconscious Vicente Luque takedowns which padded the stats. Yaroslav should be able to get this to thr ground and control from there. I know Joel has slick BJJ, but there are levels in grappling and I think Amosov exists on a different one. if I had any faith in the takedown defense of Joel, then I would say this would look like Manuel Torres vs Grant Dawson, but i have zero so its a pretty easy pick for me.

Joel Alvarez

Joel Alvarez is very tall for the division at 6'3 and he uses that length and reach well. He has solid kicks and ok boxing but very good grappling. His grappling is interesting because he gotten a single takedown in the UFC. and up until his last fight hadn't defended one either. It may be easy to take Joel down, but he did submit 4 of the 6 people who have. He is coming off the merciful win over Vicente Luque where he could've finished him multiple times but decided not to.

Yaroslav Amosov

Yaroslav Amosov is a guy who does a lot of the same things you would expect an “ov” to do. He has fantastic chain wrestling, very good cardio and can stick to a gameplan. He has striking as well and while he won't be one punch KO'ing many people, he has no problem sticking around for a striking match which will set up the takedowns. He does wear damage though so he shouldn't be striking for too long. He is coming off the almost instant win over Neil Magny