Ilia's odds have actually Shrunk here. When I did this breakdown a few weeks ago he was -800.
What's interesting is when this was announced I almost instantly picked Ilia and assumed he would knock Gaethje clean out as early as he wanted to. But as this fight gets closer and as I watch more Gaethje tape to prepare, I'm starting to tighten that opinion a bit. I still think Ilia is going to win, but there are a lot of “ifs” built into that prediction. I think Ilia wins “if” he's 100% physically and mentally prepared. As you know he is only a few months removed from a nasty divorce. I think Ilia wins “if” he can be the hammer. Now there's no reason for me to assume he would make a bad nail, but outside of the head kick with Jai Herbert, we have never seen him work from behind. What happens if Justin Gaethje just cyborgs his way forward and eats Ilia shots while landing his own? Does Ilia stay the course or does he get frustrated, throw harder and then slow down? Ilia has to be the pick because I do think he is better literally everywhere, but Justin is an all timer for a reason and outside of the last second KO by Max, we've never seen him slept. It would be cool to see Justin with an incredible win and likely retirement at the White House, but it's objectively better for the fans if Ilia gets him out of there and then moves to Islam in what could be this generations Conor vs. Khabib.
Ilia Topuria
Ilia Topuria is incredibly well rounded and very dangerous. You may look at his record, see he has knockouts in half his UFC fights and assume he is a striker, but he is a Georgean who averages more than 2 takedowns per fight. What makes him so impressive is he doesn't have a set gameplan. He comes into fight striking and depending on where things go, transitions to his wrestling. He is coming off the big KO win in his lightweight debut to become a 2 division.
Justin Gaethje
Justin Gaethje is the current and former interim lightweight champion of the world and the undisputed BMF champion of the world. His fight style and legacy are the embodiment of the BMF belt. He is a wrestler who doesn't use wrestling. He has power and volume. Pretty much every single strike he throws is a significant strike, hence the almost 7 landed per minute. Unfortunately he is hit just as much and has a negative striking differential. He marches forward, throws heavy and will stay in your face. He loves ugly fights and thrives in the chaos. He is coming off the fun win over Paddy Pimblett where he landed fewer striked but had 3 takedowns and 2 knockdowns.
