Early article for the Road to UFC semi finals taking place in Shanghai, reportedly August 28th. It is no secret that I am a big fan of Road to UFC and if we give the promotion enough time I believe the tournament will begin to produce many good prospects out of Asia.
Featherweight
GEORGE MANGOS (9-1) vs. AHEJIANG AILINUER (17-3)
I think Mangos gets through Ahejiang easily, like he did in round 1. I thought Ahejiang had a poor performance even though he did win with his grappling, whereas Mangos finished another tournament favourite in the first round. Mangos was my pick to win it all and I am confident he does so now.
Pick: George Mangos by KO/TKO. High confidence.
DAGIISUREN CHAGNAADORJ (11-2) vs. SONG YOUNG-JAE (10-1-1)
Chagnaadorj had a decent win over Regezhen, a fun striker. The fight was very close but ultimately Chagnaadorj was aggressive enough to win the decision. Song started slow but finished Jin Aoi in round 2 with a submission. I think this should be a strikers fight and Song is better on the feet in my opinion. Chagnaadorj has sneaky grappling given his experience in competitive no-gi BJJ in Mongolia, but even then I don't think this should trouble Song too much.
Pick: Song Young-jae by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.
Bantamweight
KASIB MURDOCH (8-0) vs. RABINDRA DHANT (10-1)
This will be a great fight between two guys who have built up the match up already with some drama. They are both wrestlers with very poor striking. I have always criticized Murdoch's ceiling as a bantamweight as he is far too small for this weight class, but his wrestling and grappling is so good it doesn't seem to matter. He fought though some striking struggles in round 1, to eventually dominate the fight with his wrestling and win with a round 3 submission. He fights against Rabindra Dhant who also had his own struggles on the feet against a short notice opponent. He also struggled with control in round 1. But once he had his opponent tired he was able to dominate and get some nasty ground and pound. Both of these guys have a solid chance of winning and it comes down to who can get dominant position on the ground. I think Kasib has more technique and skill, but Dhant has fought better competition in his career and will be much bigger. Both guys will struggle on the feet but I honestly think Murdoch may be the more comfortable striker. Not confident at all and the winner of this fight will certainly win the finals.
Pick: Kasib Murdoch by decision. Low confidence.
CHUNGREN KOREN (8-2) vs. RYO TAJIMA (11-3)
I don't think either of these guys are very good, and Chungren Koren shouldn't even be here since he missed weight. His opponent could have, and should have, declined the fight and got a free pass to the semi finals. Koren is a wrestler but his striking isn't very good. Tajima is the same and I honestly thought he lost to Ti Haitao in his outing. Tajima has better cardio than Koren so he should be able to outwork Koren in the grappling and take over the fight late.
Pick: Ryo Tajima by decision. Low confidence.
Flyweight
JINIUSHIYUE (17-4) vs. TAKERU UCHIDA (9-2)
This is hard to call as Takeu Uchida is so good at grappling, but he is also so one dimensional. Jiniushiyue is better than Uchida everywhere except for the grappling. If the fight stays on the feet I think Jiniushiyue would win with relative ease, but it could get very interested if Uchida can get the fight down to the ground. I think the striking differential on the feet is so significant it gives Jiniushiyue a chance for a KO and to land a lot of damage in those moment he is in control.
Pick: Jiniushiyue by decision. Low confidence.
JOSEPH LARCINESE (6-0) vs. TAKAYA SUZUKI (10-1)
I really like Larcinese and I would consider him an “online friend in the space”, but the difference between the two's first round performances is apparent. Suzuki was able to wipe Boldbataar who is talented, and Larcinese barely got by the worst flyweight in the competition.
Pick: Takaya Suzuki by KO/TKO. High confidence.
Women's Strawweight
PARK BO-HYUN (9-3) vs. FARIDA ABDUEVA (8-1)
Farida Abdueva should be the better striker here but Park will make it interesting with her pressure.
Pick: Farida Abdueva by decision. Low confidence.
MENG BO (23-8) vs. MACHI FUKUDA (11-2)
Meng Bo looked career best against my pick to win the whole tournament.
Pick: Meng Bo by decision. Medium confidence.
