Welcome to the first official slate sleuth article of 2025 for the UFC with a solid fight night at The Apex. We have a 14 fight card which is awesome for DFS, and we ended up only having 2 small weight cut misses by Jose Johnson and Ihor Potiera. All 14 fights are still on, and to help the old folks out we get an early start time today even though it is in Vegas with the first fight kicking off at 4pm EST.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Vegas 101 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
JACOBE SMITH | $9400 | -550 | 37.35%
Is 9-0, got 7 takedowns en route to a TKO finish in the 2nd round in his DWCS bout. Averages 7 sig strikes per minute and 15.5 takedowns per 15, the ceiling is crazy high.
AUSTIN BASHI | $8900 | -265 | 33.24%
Bigtime prospect who will wrestle his heart out. Averages a takedown per minute, so chain wrestling, looks to get subs, against a gatekeeper who has tamed multiple prospects just not with this level of wrestling.
AMANDA RIBAS | $8500 | 198 | 43.21%
Priced right, will be able to get takedowns against Dern’s 30% takedown defense, averages 4.6 sig strikes per minute, so getting potentially 25 minutes at that pace means a monster score.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
NURULLO ALIEV | $9500 | -650 | 23.05%
He is a wrestler who will just rely on control unless you leave an opening for a TKO. Solecki is here on a week’s notice, look for Aliev to wear out the gas tank of the guy on short notice at a 10% ownership discount from Smith.
ROMAN KOPYLOV | $9100 | -258 | 16.55%
This is the low owned GPP winning upside play. If he does not gas, he has an 85% finish rate and is younger, should be more technical on the feet, and does not have to worry about any takedowns from Curtis. He is low owned for a reason, but if he can pull one of his tricky shots off to TKO Curtis he could be a slate breaker at his ownership.
UROS MEDIC | $8700 | -205 | 27.6%
If, and I mean if, he can stay away from getting taken down, he will piece up Soriano on the feet. He averages 5.5 sig strikes per minute so the volume is there, and has 80% of his wins by TKO/KO.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
TREY OGDEN | $7900 | +150 | 17.32%
He is a closely lined dog who has taken on money throughout the week. He will look for takedowns to control Moises, and has looked good in his last few fights minus the Bahamondes disaster(to be expected against that kind of talent) and has scored over 90 in his last 2 wins.
FELIPE BUNES | $7600 | +154 | 20.31%
His opponent missed weight, Bunes has higher output on the feet, higher takedown rate, and as long as he can close the distance on the 6ft tall flyweight he should be able to grind out a decision if not get Johnson down and finish him. Jose has a super low output on the feet so Bunes should be able to pick his spots well.
IHOR POTIEIRA | $6600 | +380 | 8.16%
This is more of a fade of Tulio bc of how expensive he is making his debut against a guy who has fought some killers in the UFC. Ihor did miss weight, but Tulio is making his debut and at the price point if Potiera can get any win he is optimal, and if he gets a finish he will score 100+ and win you contests.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
CEASAR ALMEIDA | $9300 | -258 | 20.06%
He just is not a great guy for DFS purposes. Kickboxer who does not shoot for takedowns, if he gets taken down he struggles to get up (Kopylov controlled him and looked lost without a clue what to do after he got the takedowns) so I will pass on someone who at 9300 you will need a first round KO to pay off the salary
FATIMA KLINE | $9800 | -800 | 12.61%
There is 0 chance I pay up for the most expensive fighter who is favored to go the distance. Even projecting at 88 fantasy points, it does not make her optimal unless the entire card shits the bed. You need 110+ from someone priced this high.
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