This is a rematch from 7 years ago which also happened to be Mario's UFC debut and was on short notice. I have been clear in the past that when i break down rematches, I generally don't care about about the first fight, especially if there is a meaningful amount of time between them. If you care about the first one you can watch it by using our Tape Index on Premium.

Most of you are picking Cory here and I get it. I disagree, but I get it. Corey is a good fighter who notably won their first fight after dropping Mario and then after being taken down, locked in a submission. But that was then and this is now. If i am looking at both of their evolutions since then, I think Mario has improved more. I think Mario is the cleaner boxer and the better wrestler. Cory's unorthodox striking might give Mario trouble, but despite what happened in their first fight, I think Mario can lean into the wrestling if needed and stay safe. Mario is the pick and I threw a quarter of a unit on him at +125.

Cory Sandhagen

Cory Sandhagen is an active striker landing about 5 signfigant strikes per minute with deceiving power and solid technique. He's fluid, he's fast and is very good with combinations and variety. He will throw punches, kicks, elbows, kness and mix up where they land. He's athletic, tough and ties it all out with solid BJJ. Cory is a hard night out for anyone. He is coming off the title shot loss to Merab Dvalishvili where he was taking down 20 times.

Mario Bautista

Mario Bautista is a high volume striker with solid wrestling and scrambling. He sets a nice pace and is always plotting forward while being light on his feet. He has an impressive 5 to 4 striking differential and averages around 2 takedowns per fight. He has been steadily evolving the last few years and si coming off the submission win over Vinicius Oliveira.