ROQUE CONCEICAO (11-3) vs. ALEXANDER CHAVEZ (9-0) – Flyweight
ROQUE CONCEICAO 11-3 (8 KO, 2 SUB, 1 DEC)
Roque Conceicao is returning after getting knocked out by Imanol Rodriguez last year. He didn’t look very good in that fight as he got swarmed and dominated. I did pick him in that fight as I was impressed by his boxing. You could even argue that he was 12-0 before that fight as his two losses by decision could have easily gone his way. He isn’t a very big flyweight but he has decent power in his hooks. He also throws pretty high volume too which sets up his big strikes. He is coming off a really big win over Yamato Fujita by by round 1 KO where he pretty much won the same way Imanol beat him. He pressure early and ended up getting a big win against the cage.
ALEXANDER CHAVEZ 9-0 (6 KO, 3 DEC)
Alexander Chavez is a boxer from Peru. He is pretty fun to watch as he throws a lot of combinations but I wasn’t super impressed by him. He has 6 KOs but he lacks some finishing instinct. In his last fight he had his opponent finished with body shots only a couple minutes in, but the fight lasted until round 2. He got a crazy delayed KO in the end though. Aside from his boxing there really isn’t much more about his game to talk about. He also is a small flyweight and he also has a lot of speed. He’s like a faster, smaller, less powerful Kevin Borjas and there isn’t much more to say.
PREDICTION
Chavez is 15-0 across amateur and pro MMA, so maybe I am missing something as I liked Roque more. Roque has been tested against much better competition and he should have more power. Both guys are fast with pretty bad defense so no matter what happens this will be a fun fight. I worry little bit about Roque’s chin as he got folded by Imanol but his win over Fujita is respectable. Someone is going to get knocked out and I think it is Chavez.
Pick: Roque Conceicao – low confidence. Most likely method: KO/TKO in rounds 1 or 2.
PRESTON LAGRANGE (7-0) vs. NELL ARIANO (6-0) – Light Heavyweight
PRESTON LAGRANGE 6-1 (2 KO, 4 SUB)
LaGrange is replacing Ivan Gnizditskiy who I believe would have beaten Ariano. He is also moving up a weight class to accept this fight on a week or so notice as he normally fights at middleweight. He is a primary BJJ it seems as he is happy to play off his back and has multiple submissions by triangle or choke. On the feet he does have surprising power but he is quite still and upright with not great defense. He throws a lot of low kicks and does a lot of his best work in the clinch with either knees or elbows. He has been knocked out before by Brandon Holmes but this was due to him holding onto a triangle and getting slammed. He is isn’t a great wrestler as his take down accuracy is poor when fighting good competition, but he can grind against the cage. He is a pretty big middleweight at 6’1″ but I am not sure how he will look here at 205. Once he does get the fight down to the ground he is a very slick grappler. He actually took Diebitz down by pulling guillotine in the clinch and then rolling to top position on the back to then finish by choke.
NELL ARIANO 6-0 (4 KO, 2 DEC)
When I was watching Ariano’s fights while considering his original opponent, I wasn’t very impressed as his striking defense leaves a lot to be desired and Ivan Gnizditskiy is a beast. However he is certainly getting an easier fight here. I don’t really know what to make of him as he doesn’t have any submissions despite seemingly being more of a grappler than a striker. He is quite light in his feet for a light heavyweight but his striking isn’t anything too special. He does have decent kicks and fast hands for his weight class but he seems to lack a lot of power on these shots. He does have a judo base and you see this showcased in a few of his fights as he is able to reverse take down attempts of his opponents with throws. When he has dominant positions he does have strong control and ground and pound ability. He was able to ground and pound out Riku Ahorlin in a fight that saw a lot of grappling. His defensive grappling is solid as well as he has found himself in some pretty bad spots on the ground before. Norbert Pietrzak had a few good positions on him and Ariano was able to escape. Earlier in his career he did get taken down and controlled for a whole round by Farshad Nazarnia.
PREDICTION
I see this fight going in a pretty similar way to Nell Ariano vs. Riku Urholin, where Urholin had decent grappling success until Ariano eventually outlasted the initial onslaught and finished him on the ground. LaGrange is a very good BJJ fighter for middleweight which is a weight class where decent grapplers are somewhat rare. However his take down offense isn’t great and he is fighting a judoka who can reverse tough positions. Ariano has also proven to have good submission defense. I think this may be a hot take but Ariano didn’t impress me all that much but stylistically this is a great fight for him. We don’t see ground and pound TKOs all that often anymore and whenever I pick them to happen, they never seem to happen either. But I will once again predict a ground and pound TKO.
Pick: Nell Ariano – Medium-high confidence. Most likely method: KO/TKO by ground and pound.
RYUHO MIYAGUCHI (7-1) vs. MATEUS SOARES (11-2) – Bantamweight
RYUHO MIYAGUCHI 7-1 (6 KO, 1 DEC)
I am glad to see a Japanese fighter on the Contender Series as it seems like the UFC is relying on Road to UFC to develop their Asian talent pool. Miyaguchi is an odd choice though. Maybe they are trying to do him a favour as he did get screwed over pretty badly on Road to UFC when his opponent missed weight. He could have opted to decline the fight and move to the next round, but he chose to fight and ultimately lost to Chungreng Koren. That was a bad performance though and raised a lot of red flags. Miyaguchi looked the big three in there: No defense, chinny, and a little bit of quit in him. Miyaguchi is one of those guys that looks great when he is fighting his own fight. He is a big kicker, he can kick to all three levels and does this with great speed and technique. But once he got pressured by Koren he did not look great. Koren dropped him and from there it looked like Miyaguchi had no idea what to do. The level of competition for Miyaguchi has also been quite poor but he did have a great performance over UFC legend Teruto Ishihara. Overall, he is a good striker with a couple unknowns in regard to his grappling and I do not like the loss to Koren at all.
MATEUS SOARES 11-2 (9 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)
Soares is an odd case for me as for some reason I could not find some of his fights despite him fighting for major organizations such as LFA and Shooto. For some reason it looks like the LFA 221 prelims have been scrubbed from the internet, but I am most likely geo blocked. Soares is going to look small in there as he is 5’5″ and Miyaguchi is 5’10”, but he is certainly going to pressure. Soares is a boxer for the most part and he throws with a lot of power, mostly relying on hooks and overhands. He does wrestle a lot too which is pretty surprising and would be a good game plan in this fight as well. He has got experience fighting a much taller opponent as he did fight 6’1″ bantamweight Macksom Lee and he didn’t struggle with the range too much, and was offensively wrestling there. He did get caught in a d’arce choke but I highly doubt Miyaguchi has good submissions off his back.
PREDICTION
The consensus on this fight is a Soares knockout victory as he has been picked to win by 92% of tapology voters and I can’t disagree. Soares is going to give Miyaguchi the same problems Koren gave him, but with better cardio, technique, and power.
Pick: Mateus Soares – Medium-high confidence. Most likely method: KO/TKO in round 1 or 2.
SAL EVERETT (4-0) vs. OZZY MARTIN (4-0) – Welterweight
SAL EVERETT 4-0 (2 KO, 2 SUB)
The storyline of this fight will be that Everett is an employee of the UFC – He works as some sort of assistant to the matchmakers/office staff of the UFC. As a professional MMA fighter people are very split on him. Some think he is the real deal but he also has many doubters. As a professional he has less than 8 minutes of fight time and he has run through every opponent easily. He has done this as his level of competition is abysmal. He is well rounded but he just goes out there and puts a beating on his opponents and they all fail to deal with the pressure, volume and power. If he can’t get a KO he will get a take down and go for a submission. He did get taken down once but then won by submission off his back.
OZZY MARTIN 4-0 (4 KO)
Ozzy Martin is like Everett – He has 4 pro fights but only 11 minutes of fight time in MMA. He does have some boxing and kickboxing fights too. I don’t know what to make of Martin and it seems like he also has his supporters with many claiming that he will beat Everett easily. His level of competition is also horrendous though. He is very fast for the weight class and does dispatch of his opponents in the way you would expect.
PREDICTION
It is obvious that Sal Everett is the A-side here but this fight is doing both guys no favours. Even if either of these two got signed to the UFC, they lack experience. I have no idea how either of these guys look when times get tough, I have no idea if either of these guys can defend a submission, and I don’t know much about either guys striking defense. I also saw Everett get taken down which you don’t love to see. Out of the two I will say Everett did look more impressive. Despite there being not much out there I didn’t like Martin’s striking defense much either. It is impossible to be confident in this fight given the lack of experience for both, and also there isn’t much to say about either given how short both of their fights are. If anyone is more well rounded I would say it is Everett as I have seen him get two submissions now, one off his back and the other after a take down.
Pick: Sal Everett – low confidence. I think a submission could be more likely given Martin’s completely unknown grappling. So I am going to pick an Everett submission but he could get a KO as well.
ALIVIA BIERLEY (5-1) vs. SUMMER ONLEY (6-0) – Women’s Bantamweight
PREDICTION
I do not have a good track record at picking women’s fights on DWCS, but I ultimately sided with Summer Onley. Bierley didn’t impress me much. On the feet Bierley strikes a lot like Aspen Ladd where she throws at air without any striking accuracy at all. Onley looks pretty legit to me. She has pretty technical striking and a good arsenal of strikes with her kicks as well. As time went on I have liked my Onley prediction more, but I will leave it as low confidence given my poor track record of predicting women’s MMA on DWCS.
Pick: Summer Onley – low confidence. By decision.
