COLTON LOUD (7-1) vs. CHRISTIAN NATIVIDAD (9-0) – Flyweight

COLTON LOUD 7-1 (4 KO, 3 SUB)

Loud is huge for the weight class. He has a very lanky frame but he is currently listed as 5’10”. He uses this frame well as he is mostly a grappler so can use his long limbs to set up submissions. On the feet I don’t think he is anything special as he is not very defensively sound. He doesn’t have great movement with his footwork or his head. However, when he does throw he has a great reach so he throws a lot of kicks and straight punches. He wants the fight on the ground though. On the ground he is a very good at finding the back and attacking submissions from there. He is coming off back to back d’arce chokes in the first round as well. He can get taken down and controlled though. His get up game is okay but he does like to play BJJ off his back. His cardio is also a bit unknown as he fights at a high pace and probably cuts a decent amount of weight.

CHRISTIAN NATIVIDAD (3 KO, 6 DEC)

Apologies for being late here. Natividad is a wrestler who can be quite boring. He does only have 6 decisions and that is because he does wrestle a lot and control in half guard. Now, he does have a good ability to take the back but of course he has no submissions yet so it is hard to trust his submission ability. On the feet I think he is a fantastic boxer. To the point I would nearly compare him to an older version of Josh Van since he is a short, small guy who enters and exits the pocket quickly.

PREDICTION

I think this comes down to Natividad not getting caught on the feet and submitted by d’arce. Natividad is the much more technical striker who should be able to exploit Loud’s bad striking defense. He is going to need to deal with the submission threat and a big size disadvantage but I think he is good enough to navigate this.

Pick: Christian Natividad by decision. Low-medium confidence.

Original Silva vs. Loud prediction

I am not super convinced either of these guys are going to make it far in the UFC as the flyweight division is very competitive and technical. I was very unimpressed with Frank Silva though. If he shoots take downs I think Loud will catch him with a submission. I also think that if Loud shoots for a take down he will catch Silva with a submission. Very hard to read Silva as there is not much on him at all out there but it seems like he is going to need to get a KO over Loud. Maybe he does exploit the defense of Loud and get that KO, but I haven’t found enough evidence to pick this to happen. If Loud has any level of fight IQ he will find a submission in this fight, and I think he could do this easily.

Pick: Colton Loud TO DEFEAT FRANK SILVA (CANCELLED) by submission in round 1. Medium confidence.

MARTIN KOZAK (6-0) vs. CHRISTIAN ECHOLS (8-4) – Middleweight

MARTIN KOZAK 6-0 (4 KO, 2 SUB)

Kozak is an odd fighter as I feel like he is more of a “high ceiling low floor” type of prospect. He is listed at 6’4″ but he is quick thick so he may be a little bit shorter than that. On the feet he is a very low volume striker. He doesn’t throw much and then when he does he only throws one strike at a time. He does very well to control the cage but when he does get backed up he can spend a long time being controlled against the cage. It is hard to know if this guy is any good as I wasn’t greatly impressed with him but his size alone should be enough to get past this fight.

CHRISTIAN ECHOLS 8-4 (2 KO, 6 SUB)

Echols has taken this fight on short notice. He is not a big middleweight at 5’10” and he was noticeable shorter than his opponent in his last fight who was listed at 6’0″. He has a super padded record and most his wins are against abysmal competition with the exception of his huge upset win over Pat Downey. His is a wrestler but against good competition he doesn’t have great accuracy. On the feet he doesn’t offer much and I have seen him hurt with leg kicks before.

PREDICTION

Juan Cabrera pulled out which is a shame as him vs. Kozak would have been hilarious.

Pick: Martin Kozak by KO/TKO in round 1. High confidence.

ARLIND BERISHA (5-0) vs. QUENTIN PASLEY (3-0) – Light Heavyweight

ARLIND BERISHA 5-0 (4 KO, 1 SUB)

I have friends in the space who are very excited about Arlind Berisha, and it is hard not to be. This is a 6’6″ prospect at light heavyweight who has shown good athleticism and an ability to fight on the feet and on the ground. It was a quick study as he is 5-0 with 5 round 1 finishes. He has fought some abysmal competition as a pro but he does pass the eye test. He uses his size well on the feet and has a guillotine win which he locked up standing due to his height. He has good power on the feet even though most of his KO wins have actually come due to ground and pound after a take down. I will say the one flaw I have seen from him has to be his striking defense. He does not move his head and he also can sometimes just stand in the pocket. This has not been an issue for him in the past as he is fighting poor competition but it could be here or in the UFC as he starts to fight some power punchers. Overall the take down defense has help up and the offensive striking is solid.

QUENTIN PASLEY 3-0 (3 KO)

Pasley was also a quick study as he is 3-0 as a pro with 3 first round KO wins. Berisha has fought some poor competition but somehow Pasley’s wins are even worse. His opponents combined professional records are 0.8. One of those wins is over the 35 year old Reylan Gracie. But I don’t know why the Gracie family allowed that fight to even happen. Maybe they are like Volkanovski and have developed a humiliation fetish.  I was confused as to why they would call up Pasley again as he is so inexperienced in MMA but it is obvious that he has some real talent. He is a very good striker who controls the cage and remains patient. He has good technique and that comes from professional boxing experience. He also has professional grappling bouts so it will be interesting to see if this is utilized in his MMA career soon. I liked everything I saw out of Pasley. I just wish he fought some real competition as he has looked good against absolute jobbers.

PREDICTION

Both of these guys are good prospects who have never fought any real competition yet. This will be a real test for both as Pasley is 6’5″ and Berisha is 6’6″. To my complete surprise I actually am more impressed with Pasley than Berisha. Pasley has by far the better technique of the two and given Berisha’s obvious defensive flaws this is a great opportunity for him to come away with a big win. Both guys are complete unknowns so I would tread with caution but it seems to me like Pasley will possess a speed and athleticism advantage. My concern is that I think Berisha is actually the more dangerous fighter out of the two, but ultimately Pasley should be able to find big openings in his defense.

Pick: Quentin Pasley by KO/TKO in round 1. Low confidence.

WON IL KWON (14-6) vs. APOLLO GOMES (12-2) – Bantamweight

WON IL KWON 14-6 (12 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)

I am shocked they brought Won back. At this point he is on a two fight losing streak including a Contender Series loss to Juan Diaz last year. I did pick Won to win that fight and I do consider that be a bad loss as I think Diaz sucks. Won was chilling in that fight aside from a few good take downs from Diaz. On the feet Won is a Muay Thai specialist with excellent movement. His footwork gets him out of range of his opponents counters, except for the time he walked into a Diaz elbow of course. He is a very tall and thin for bantamweight but he doesn’t use this to his advantage much as he likes to just throw down in the pocket. He rips the body well. He did grab the fence a bunch against Diaz but compared to Wellmaker you could say his take down defense is pretty good.

APOLLO GOMES 12-2 (5 KO, 4 SUB, 3 DEC)

Gomes is a well rounded fighter but he doesn’t do one thing exceptionally well. He is pretty good at striking, pretty good at wrestling, pretty good at grappling. This has been enough to him to put together a good career and he has some impressive wins over good fighters like former PFL fighter Zebenzui Ruiz. However he hasn’t shown a strong skillset in any one area to me. On the feet I don’t think he is particularly dangerous as he mostly throws boxing combinations and an occasional body kick. He does have good take down defense but he isn’t an exceptional wrestler to the point where he can pull off reversals or escape the clinch quickly. Offensively his wrestling is largely based on shooting take downs against the cage, but he did struggle to get Ruiz down. I don’t love his defense either and I think he going to leave himself open to get hit as he keeps his low.

PREDICTION

It is very hard to trust Won Il Kwon after his loss last year. I am unsure if this is going to be a hot take or not but I think this is a really good stylistic match up for him though. I don’t believe that Gomes has the ability to get Kwon down to the ground so this should be a striking fight. On the feet I think Kwon will have a big advantage. Gomes is very flat footed so his movement is not great and this is where I think Kwon will separate himself. Against Diaz, Kwon was using his feet to cut very awkward angles and this should work again against someone like Gomes. Gomes striking is also not as technical as Diaz either so when he lands I don’t expect Kwon to respect the power coming back at him. At this point it is time to worry about the confidence Kwon will have coming off such a bad loss, but it is obvious the UFC wants him or else they wouldn’t have brought him back in another match up he should be favoured to win.

Pick: Won Il Kwon by KO/TKO in round 2. Medium confidence.

ISAAC MORENO (8-0) vs. REGINALDO JUNIOR (11-1) – Welterweight

ISAAC MORENO 8-0 (5 KO, 3 DEC)

Isaac Moreno has taken this fight on short notice. He is a fast striker that can mix things up everywhere if needed. He is mostly a boxer but in some performances I have seen him throw a lot of kicks. He throws a lot of straight punches in combination, but the problem is when he does this he keeps his chin up in the air. He isn’t very defensively sound as he has zero head movement but he does have good enough footwork and counter striking to get out of way. He has a decent variety of low kicks, regularly targeting the legs and body of his opponents. He doesn’t have any submission victories but he can wrestle offensively. If an opponent gives up an opportunity by throwing a lazy kick he will take them down and land a lot of ground and pound. He does have KO wins this way as ground and pound is how he stopped Melvin Guillard and Brexton Everett. He has been the distance a few times and in these fights his cardio looked good. His takedown defense is solid but he is mostly relying on sprawls and quick athletic escapes rather than using the cage.

REGINALDO JUNIOR 11-1 (4 KO, 5 SUB, 2 DEC)

Reginaldo fights out of the Fighting Nerds camp. He is listed at 5’9″ but he has a stocky build. If he gets signed to the UFC we may see him go down to 155 lbs though. His striking isn’t as technical as Moreno but he is certainly more powerful. He can knock out his opponents with one punch if he can land at the right time. He fights behind his jab a lot but he finds him big KOs with his right hand. He always has his right hand loaded in his stance. He can wrestle too and most of the take downs he gets are double legs where he either drags his opponents down or he slams them. Being short for the weight class definitely helps with this. On the ground he has decent control but he can lose positions when he is throwing ground and pound. I didn’t see any major holes in his game, the only issue I have is that I don’t think he defends kicks well.

PREDICTION

This is a harder fight to call than I expected as I didn’t have high expectations for Reginaldo as I am confident he was being brought in to lose to his original opponent Stefano Paterno. For now I am going to back Moreno to work the legs and body early before finding a late finish.

Pick: Isaac Moreno by KO/TKO in round 3. Low-medium confidence.