This is a scary card as I am not very confident in any of these picks.

ADAM DARBY (7-1) vs. PATRICK RIVERA (13-4) – Welterweight

ADAM DARBY 7-1 (3 KO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC)

Adam Darby is a lanky 6'3″ striker. He likes to control the middle of the cage where he fights a jab, leg kicks and body kicks. He throws a good amount of volume but doesn't seem to have a great deal of punching power behind his shots. His wrestling is pretty good as I have seen him defend take downs well by using the cage to escape. He isn't very strong so sometimes he does get tripped against the cage. He seeks a lot of defensive submissions as well such as guillotines and ninja chokes. He won't give up a standing position or pull guard to chase a submission like this though. When he does get pressured he doesn't react well to getting hit which is where I worry a little bit about him. His striking defense also isn't great as he keeps his hands wide and low, and doesn't have great head movement. He is light on his feet tough so he does well to get away. He has good cardio which is what carried him to his late finish win in round 3 against Constantin.

PATRICK RIVERA 13-4 (6 KO, 4 SUB, 3 DEC)

I wasn't impressed by Darby but oh man what is the UFC doing here. I couldn't watch all of Rivera's fights as his promotion Shogun is locked behind pay walls but I saw enough to know what's gonna happen here. He actually is a very similar fighter to Darby in the sense that he is also a rangy striker. However he can get backed up easily and on top of that he only throws one strike at a time. He actually has a pro kickboxing background but I don't think this has translated all that well to MMA. On top of that he has no take down defense at all and I also worry about his grappling defense in general.

PREDICTION

Not sure why they made this the featured fight. I guess they think Adam Darby could become something. On the feet Rivera should make it competitive but the fact that he doesn't throw combinations means he may not be able to exploit the potential holes in Darby's defense. Darby does shoot the occasional take down as well so this is certainly an area in which I could see Darby trying to take the fight to get a clear advantage. I don't think Darby is anything special but he is certainly a better fighter than Rivera.

Pick: Adam Darby by submission in round 2. Medium confidence.

BRANDON HOLMES (6-1) vs. MODESTINO RODRIGUES (7-1) – Middleweight

BRANDON HOLMES 6-1 (4 KO, 2 DEC)

Holmes is returning after fighting on the Contender Series last year. He stepped up on short notice against Cam Rowston and was knocked out in the first round. However, the loss has aged well as Rowston is now 3-0 in the UFC. He is coming off a very impressive win over the undefeated Preston LaGrange where he took him down early and then slammed him out of a submission attempt. I am surprised he wrestled so much against LaGrange as I have considered him to be a striker more than anything. The problem with him is that he is flat footed which means he can get hit easily. Borrego and Rowston were both able to hit him often.

MODESTINO RODRIGUES 7-1 (7 KO)

This guy is pretty funny as he is a pure striker with absolutely no take down defense at all. He has competed in the K-1 world grand prix in 2025 so he can kick box at an international level. This kind of shows up in his fights as he throws a lot of combinations and his kicks are very fast – but I don't know if you could call him a technical striker. His punches are pretty sloppy as he gets super aggressive whenever he lands something of note, so he just ends up wailing hooks. You also need to worry about his striking defense as I just watched him get brutally slumped by 0-2 Clayton Ferreira by an overhand and a boxing combination.

PREDICTION

I highly doubt it was intentional but this is hilarious matchmaking by the UFC. Both guys have absolutely zero striking defense and both have enough power to put the other out. On top of that Rodrigues has never attended a BJJ class in his life and Holmes has implemented grappling in his most recent fight. Very hard to predict but Rodrigues will be the much faster and athletic striker. It really will be whoever lands first wins and I think that will be Rodrigues. However this pick could change.

Pick: Modestino Rodrigues by KO/TKO in round 1. Low confidence. As of 20th August after that Trent Miller nonsense I may just pick Holmes.

ADAM LIVINGSTON (7-1) vs. HUNTER SMITH (8-1) – Lightweight

ADAM LIVINGSTON 7-1 (5 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)

Livingston is coming back as he did the UFC a favour fighting Tommy Gantt on short notice last year. He is a 6'2″ boxer but doesn't use the fact that he is so tall and long to his advantage very well. He doesn't throw a lot of straight punches, or many jabs for that matter. He mostly throws heavy combinations with a lot of hooks. Defensively he scares me as he does not have any head movement at all and he keeps his hands very low at all times. His cardio is good in my opinion, but in his last few fights he has come out very aggressive and blown his load in the first round. Especially against Pufahl where he started throwing bombs early and spent the first half of round 1 chasing a finish. His take down defense is good even though Gantt took him down twice on five attempts. No other opponent he has had has been able to get him down. He may come out super aggressive again as that seems to be his new gameplan.

HUNTER SMITH 8-1 (6 KO, 2 DEC)

Despite the tapology pick percentages and the fact I think Livingston is overrated, I was not as impressed by Smith initially. He is a lot more patient than Livingston and even though he has some super quick finishes he takes his time getting into fights. He throws a lot of jabs and hooks with lead hand and works the legs and the body with kicks. I did watch his fights on mute butt I read somewhere he had a kickboxing background which makes sense. When he throws in combination he looks good, especially when he lands with his right hand. He has a lot of power too as he was hurting Sagliani with shots that weren't even landing properly. In that fight he did get hurt a bit and showed pretty poor cardio and defense which is concerning. In his one loss he got grappled in round 1 and come out in round 2 gassed. He won the rematch against the same guy but his opponent didn't shoot. He absolutely face planted him with a massive left hook. Overall, Smith has crazy power but I worry about his cardio and defense.

PREDICTION

The theme of this card seems to be big power and no defense. I think Livingston's defense is very concerning, especially against someone with lights out power like Smith. Smith himself doesn't have great defense and has shown poor cardio throughout his career as well. Livingston starts his fights very fast and Smith likes to take his time. If Livingston fights the way I think he will, he is going to make sure the under 1.5 rounds cashes either way as he will either land big early or get countered and dropped. I am torn on this as I think Livingston sucks and would be a free fade in the UFC but after more research Smith is a lot better than I thought he was. For now I will back the power and counter striking of Smith over the size of Livingston, as Livingston doesn't use his size well he just bombs hooks.

Pick: Hunter Smith by KO/TKO in round 1. Very low confidence.

LIAM MCCRACKEN (8-1) vs. SILVESTRE SANCHEZ (9-1) – Lightweight

LIAM MCCRACKEN 8-1 (5 KO, 3 SUB)

Liam McCracken has a lot of hype behind for a few reasons. Firstly it is because he is a good prospect from England, but he also has a good story and a fun fighting style. He was hit by a bus and had to take two years off while recovering with a broken back. Since his return to MMA he has gone 3-0 with three finishes. McCracken is mostly a striker but he is good everywhere. On the feet he throws boxing combinations behind a jab or a leading hook. He has a good kicking arsenal as well but he doesn't throw a great amount of them, he doesn't even throw many leg kicks. In close he rips the body and has great power on hooks to both levels. He is coming off a third round finish over Mateus Linhares who was the best opponent he had faced since he lost to Asael Adjouj in Bellator. His takedown defense held up very well and he was able to punish Linhares with his hooks. He does make some defensive mistakes by keeping his chin pretty high with his hands low as he exits the pocket, which is something I will keep in mind when he fights a good counter striker. He is also pretty small for lightweight in my opinion as he is a former featherweight. But maybe he has full committed to lightweight and can't make that lower weight class anymore. He can wrestle and grapple offensively as well if he wants to.

SILVESTRE SANCHEZ 9-1 (3 KO, 5 SUB, 1 DEC)

Silvestre Sanchez is incredibly dangerous. He doesn't seem like a big lightweight but he has massive power in his punches – I have seen him put multiple opponents out cold. His best asset on the feet is probably his counter striking as it is with his counters in the pocket he knocks most of these guys out. From range he does throw leg kicks and occasional straight punches. He won't engage much in the pocket unless his opponent chooses to do so and that is where his powerful overhands hooks come through. He does offensively wrestle a lot as well. I wouldn't say his wrestling is anything special but he does work well against the cage and has decent enough control. Once the fight is down he does have a submission game but I would say it is his ground and pound that is the most effective. A few of the submissions I saw form him come from him hurting his opponent first before chasing the submission to finish. Sanchez has lost before but this was by his opponent wrestling him the whole time so it isn't super relevant.

PREDICTION

This is by far the most dangerous opponent Liam McCracken has ever fought. I have spoken with a few others who will be picking Sanchez with confidence which does make me second guess my prediction here but I do think McCracken simply is “better”. McCracken will throw more volume than Sanchez and has proven to me that he will be able to keep the fight on the feet as his take down defense is solid. I do worry a lot about the fact that McCracken will exit the pocket with his chin in the air and with his hands down as that is a clear path for Sanchez to land clean on him. But the man winning the minutes will be McCracken as he will be landing more strikes over time.

Pick: Liam McCracken by decision. Low confidence.

CHARLIE CLEVELAND (6-1) vs. GABRIEL LOURENCO (7-1) – Heavyweight

CHARLIE CLEVELAND 6-1 (4 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)

Charlie Cleveland is a very athletic heavyweight. He is 6'2″ and has weighed in for his fights around 230 – 250 lbs throughout his career. He is on the smaller end of the weight class as he isn't super tall, super muscular, or high in body fat like most heavyweights are. He definitely has a wrestling background as he wrestles in nearly all of his fights and has shown take down defense. He did get taken down and mounted by Cam Graham which is a horrific look but he was able to escape the position and out wrestle Graham to a decision. He showed good take down defense against Nyle Bartling and ultimately found the KO ealry there. On the feet he is a wild man who over throws on many strikes. I have seen him nearly fall over as he throws so wild and off balance sometimes. He has good kicks which is rare at heavyweight and this is due to his athleticism for the weight class. He isn't a perfect heavyweight prospect by any means but he has a lot of tools to get excited about. I am unsure about how good this guy actually is since his fights are so crazy.

GABRIEL LOURENCO 7-1 (5 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)

I also can't tell if Lourenco is any good either. He is also pretty athletic and he has good power in his hands with great knees and kicks. My main concern regarding Lourenco is that he gets hurt a lot. A lot of his KO wins come from him countering his opponents after his opponents have already hurt him which shows he can counter strike under pressure, but getting hurt in the first place is concerning. He is 6'3″ but he is very slim for heavyweight so I am curious to see how much he will weigh in for his fight. His best chance in this match up will be to use his knees as Cleveland shoots wild take downs or leans forward throwing overhands. I don't really know how good Lourenco's wrestling is. His submission come by guillotine over an already hurt opponent.

PREDICTION

Difficult fight to call as both guys have a lot of unknowns. The big difference maker for me is that I believe Cleveland has a very clear path with his wrestling. This may not result in a early KO win as I have picked below but I like the fact he could mix it up whereas I don't believe Lourenco has this option. I also think that Cleveland has more pure power out of the two on the feet. Lourenco has more tools with his kicks and his knees but seeing him get hurt against far worse competition also gives me some confidence in the Cleveland side.

Pick: Charlie Cleveland by KO/TKO in round 1. Medium confidence.