Week 2 is still a few weeks away and as of now only three fights have been announced. I am expecting more DWCS news at UFC 329 so I will update the article when I can after the full card announcement.
LOGAN PAXTON (10-1) vs. CRISTIAN PEREZ (14-2) – Lightweight
LOGAN PAXTON 10-1 (7 KO, 2 SUB, 1 DEC)
Paxton is a big, powerful fighter who has spent most of his career fighting at welterweight. He has a lot of wins coming by KO in the first round but to my surprise he is more of a wrestler than anything. On the feet he has a very high guard and mostly boxes. The technique isn't great but he does have big power. He is also quite slow for a welterweight so I don't think this speed will translate well to 155 lbs. He did throw a lot of kicks earlier in his career but has seemingly abandoned these as he has become more of a wrestler. The level of competition he has fought has been abysmal aside from his one loss to JaCobi Jones which he would have won if he wasn't obsessed with punching the back of Jones head. His best win is probably over Armus Guyton, but Guyton was death gassed three minutes in so I'm not too sure how highly to rate that win. When things are going well, Paxton is getting his take downs and is landing ground and pound from either full mount or side control. He can get in some trouble when his take downs get defended as he doesn't look super comfortable on the feet despite the power he has.
CRISTIAN PEREZ 14-2 (5 KO, 6 SUB, 3 DEC)
Perez is clearly the A-side here. He is quite the hyped prospect in his won right, even prior to his Contender Series loss last year against Manoel Sousa. In that fight he clearly won the first round by dominating Sousa with his grappling. He took the back and was in full mount for moments as well. He started round 2 strong but then lost control and gassed out at the end of the round due to the grappling and Sousa landing some nasty body shots. Sousa has an awkward striking style where he also holds a tight guard. He is very dynamic with multiple kicks in his arsenal and he can look elite when he throws these in combination with his punches. He lacks good footwork and has bad head movement though. The fact he was able to take Sousa down so easily is a credit to his wrestling and grappling ability but the fact he gassed out so badly in round 2 makes me worry about his cardio a bit going forward.
PREDICTION
I will assume that Perez will be a big favourite in this fight and the public will heavily favour him (only 62% picked on tapology at the moment though). But hindsight is 20/20 and watching his Contender Series performance against Sousa for a second time it was not as impressive as I remembered. The fact that he is fighting a very big opponent who is also a wrestler could impact his cardio again if it has not improved. On the feet I do favour Perez as he will be significantly faster than Paxton and have much better technique. I do worry about Perez' striking defense against a powerful opponent, but Paxton is much slower than Sousa and is not as good of a striker. Perez has also fought better competition throughout his career and has had to fight through adversity in Combate when Paxton has not. Perez was able to take down Sousa easily too whereas Paxton's takedown accuracy isn't very good, so it could be assumed that Perez is the better wrestler and grappler as well. I don't feel confident in this fight and I honestly went in to tape study expecting Paxton to be a lay up for Perez but now I am not so sure. Perez looked so good against Sousa in round 1 and if he can pull off a quick take down against Paxton he may be able to take the back and get a quick submission. I don't know how good Paxton's cardio will be at 155 lbs but if the fight gets extended this could get interesting.
Pick: Cristian Perez by submission in round 1. Low-medium confidence.
TANER TREMBLEY (7-0) vs. ROMAN PUGA (5-1) – Featherweight
TANER TREMBLEY 7-0 (2 KO, 5 SUB)
Trembley is a very slick grappler but I strongly dislike his striking. Trembley is very comfortable on the feet which is always a good sign for a grappler, but I don't like a lot of decisions he makes. He throws a lot of unconventional strikes such as axe kicks and jumping knees, but these only work if you can throw these quickly and get out of the pocket before a counter. On top of that his striking defense is horrendous. He gets hurt in nearly every fight. He was hurt with a head kick against Gabe Eurit, Shaheen Santana had him hurt early, and Korey Taylor was going to war with him before he death gassed. To his credit Trembley is super tough and I actually find it a positive that he has had to fight through adversity to get this point as a lot of undefeated guys usually don't. When the fight is on the ground is where Trembley is at his best. A lot of his submission wins actually come from his opponents making mistakes. Santana shot a terrible takedown so Trembley got the guillotine. Eurit got a take down, but Trembley was able to out scramble him to take the back and choke him. Trembley's wrestling offense is decent but he does spend a lot of time in the clinch before shooting for a take down in deep, or creating space to land some dirty boxing and knees.
ROMAN PUGA (4 KO, 1 SUB)
Roman Puga is a Mexican-American boxer. On the feet he is super high volume, throwing boxing combinations often while pressuring his opponents. He works the body well too which is something I always like to see. He is listed at 5'8″ but I swear he might be a little taller than this. He has a long reach and uses this effectively as well. He does throw kicks but usually these are only to the legs. He has KO power with a lot of his wins coming in round 1 due him landing big hooks. He is a bit of a BJJ nerd as well and I think he has pretty poor fight IQ on the ground. Against Rickey Furar he kept going for armbars which gave his opponent top position and let him get off ground and pound. In that fight he actually lost by doctor stoppage as he had a cut in a really unfortunate place on the inside of his eyelid. He fumbled a finish against Bryen Dao getting too sneaky with submission attempts as well. Against Hamzeh Trad he had to defend a rear naked choke and also scrambled well against a grappler.
PREDICTION
This is a striker vs. grappler match up, even though Puga has shown his fair share of grappling flashes. On the feet I have to heavily favour Roman Puga. He will throw with much better technique and much higher volume. On top of that he has shown a strong ability to check kicks and counter kicks in his career so far. I worry about his decision making on the ground against a slick grappler like Trembley though, but at least I have seen him need to defend submissions and scramble. I also think Puga will be the bigger fighter in there with the most finishing upside on the feet. I love the boxing combinations and I think he will be able to get by Trembely's poor defense and knock him out.
Pick: Roman Puga by KO/TKO in round 2. Medium confidence.
MAHAMED ALY (5-1) vs. ALIK LORENZ (7-2) – Light Heavyweight
MAHAMED ALY 5-1 (4 KO, 1 DEC)
Aly is an interesting case as he has heaps of BJJ experience but hasn't leaned on it in MMA. He has just been striking and has looked pretty good but did get smoked by Iwo Baraniewski in less than 60 seconds. He has bounced back since.
ALIK LORENZ 7-2 (6 KO, 1 SUB)
Lorenz is a sloppy brawler. He honestly isn't very good but has quick finishes against low level competition.
PREDICTION
If Aly loses this I would be shocked. Lorenz has a punchers chance of course but he doesn't have the speed or power of Iwo.
Pick: Mahamed Aly by KO/TKO in round 1. High confidence.
DOUGLAS BLADE RODRIGUES (6-1) vs. TRENT MILLER (9-3) – Middleweight
DOUGLAS BLADE RODRIGUES 6-1 (4 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)
This guy is a crazy striker. He has a bit of hype behind him as people have compared him to Ruffy (literally) but I don't quite see it. Funny enough, he fights more like Ryan Gandra who was Miller's DWCS opponent last year. Blade spends a lot of time on the feet with his hands super low but he throws his punches he has pretty good technique. He works the body well in combination too. I do worry about his wrestling and grappling defense as it seems like he has no idea what he is doing when the fight is on the ground. In his decision win, his opponent was able to take him down and pass into mount before attempting an arm triangle.
TRENT MILLER 9-3 (7 KO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC)
I am pretty sure they are bring back Miller as a favour since he fought Gandra on short notice last year. The problem is that I just don't think Miller is good enough to compete at the UFC level. He is a short middleweight wrestler who largely abandoned his wrestling in his fights leading up to DWCS last year. Against Gandra, he got caught on the feet early and Gandro proceed to put a beating on him until the fight was over. He has fought once since but it was against an opponent who was 3-3 who had not fought in 3 years. He looked decent in round 1 as he used his wrestling but in round 2 he ended up getting dropped and taken down, and it looked like he had completely gassed out. He looks alright moving forward but I am not convinced he has the striking defense to compete against a good striker.
PREDICTION
Have to side with a Rodrigues KO here but I can't be high confidence due to the lack of wrestling ability he has. Miller can wrestle, and a lot of his wins do come by finish but even then I question his finishing ability. He fought a rusty inexperienced fighter in his last outing and couldn't find a finish off the take down in round 1, so I can't trust in Miller to find a finish early himself. On top of that, Miller's striking defense is so bad he will definitely get caught with something against Blade in the same way he did against Gandra. I am not convinced that Blade is a hot prospect or anything but he should get a big KO win here.
Pick: Douglas Blade Rodrigues by KO/TKO in round 1. Medium confidence.
NAMO FAZIL (10-1) vs. KAIK BRITO (19-6) – Welterweight
NAMO FAZIL 10-1 (4 KO, 4 SUB, 2 DEC)
Fazil last fought on the MVP MMA card against Jake Babian who is a brawler with little to no gas tank. Obviously the UFC took notice of his star potential from that card and has signed him for this fight. Despite having a strong grappling ability I would consider him to be more of a striker than anything. He is a bit small for the weight class but he makes up for this with good cardio, speed, and surprising power. He can wrestle too but I didn't see him do this much in his recent fights as he was mostly needing to showcase his defensive grappling and scrambles.
KAIK BRITO 19-6 (416 KO, 3 SUB)
Kaik Brito was the OKTAGON welterweight champion but he had to vacate the belt to take this opportunity. He is a very good striker who was on the Contender Series a few years ago where he lost to Oban Elliot, but I still think he won. He is a very good striker who uses range well. He kicks the legs and throws a lot of straight punches. He has a great deal of power of course given the KO victories, but recently we have seen him mix in some of his own offensive grappling.
PREDICTION
This is one of the best fights of the season. I think Brito is going to have a significant striking advantage here and for Fazil to win he will have to try and exploit Brito's questionable take down defense. I see a lot of people are picking Fazil to win but I can't look past how much Brito has impressed me in his last wins. Brito has shown an ability to fight moving backwards, even throwing kicks while moving backwards which a lot of strikers struggle to do. On top of that I also am not convinced that Brito will be taken down easily by Fazil. If my eyes don't deceive me, Brito should be much bigger than Fazil come fight night and he uses the cage very well to defend take downs. At the moment I will be siding with Brito to catch Fazil. Fazil gets a bit wild whereas Brito has shown that he can maintain composure and I think that will be the difference in a fight like this.
Pick: Kaik Brito by KO/TKO in round 1. Low confidence.
