My picks have been poor and as a result I have been sad all week. Time to mount a huge come back.
RAFAEL TOBIAS (13-1) vs. JAIR DE OLIVEIRA (6-0) – Light Heavyweight
If Jair de Oliveira wins this fight I will move to Argentina, build a record at Samurai Fight House, and go on a UFC run myself. There isn't much tape of his but I saw him can crush Adao Jaquiel and you couldn't tell which of the two was the better fighter. Tobias is a bit fraudulent himself as his striking defense doesn't exist and he loves the enter the pocket with his hands by his knees. I am picking submission as it is the easiest path to victory but a KO wouldn't shock me.
Pick: Rafael Tobias by submission. High confidence.
SOFIA MONTENEGRO (6-1) vs. JEISLA CHAVES (5-0) – Women's Flyweight
Do not bet on this fight. It is really low level. I watched a lot of Montengro tape but struggled to find anything major on Chaves aside from one pro fight and a few Muay Thai bouts. Montenegro has some of the worst striking defense I have ever seen but her boxing technique is solid. She used to run forward Julianna Pena style but since she got KOed badly in 10 seconds she has fought much more patient and as a result actually looked quite good in her most recent fight, mixing in boxing combinations to the head and body. With that being said she looked terrible in the fight before, getting caught on the feet and needing to wrestle. It looks like she has serviceable grappling though. Chaves combined opponents record are 0-6. So she has never fought anyone with a win. From what I saw of her she looked to be a pretty low volume Muay Thai striker who wanted to close the distance and clinch up against the cage. I have spoken with others more familiar with her and they say she does fight quite aggressive so maybe we see that here. If she does she could maybe knock out Montenegro as we have seen her knocked out before, and as I said her striking defense is awful. Just an awful fight with a lot of unknowns. Just awful.
Pick: Sofia Montenegro by decision. Low confidence.
BRAHYAN ZURCHER (9-0) vs. MURTAZALI MAGOMEDOV (9-0) – Featherweight
When this fight was booked I genuinely thought it was a fight the UFC wanted Magomedov to win, as Zurcher is a former PFL prospect who they invested quite a bit into. But after looking into it I am not sure if Magomedov is truly ready for this level yet. He is coming off two pretty bad performances, especially in his last one where he was rocked and dropped badly, and was caught in a guillotine in round 1. I have also seen him taken down by multiple opponents, including Ulan Tamgabaev and Sardor Khudoyberdiev. His striking looked especially poor in his last fight where was very slow and was caught often. He is a talented wrestler though and is absolutely massive for 145, I think he is 5'10” or 5'11”. I also have concerns about his cardio as well as it seems he gets tired in round 2. Zurcher is interesting to me as we have only really seen him once in big scrambles and that was against Scottie Stockman. That fight has aged very poorly as Stockman has been exposed for having bad grappling. But since then we have seen Zurcher beat some decent guys the PFL found for him. He is the better striker in this fight and I think the fact that he does attempt take downs will be a good thing as it will wear on the cardio of Magomedov. Once Magomedov gets a take down he is very good at finding dominant positions and looking for submissions. He is dangerous early and I think that is how we will need to win. If Magomedov wins this fight it will very likley be in round 1 or 2. However if Zurcher can survive round 1 I think he can take over in the later rounds against a tired opponent with his superior striking and his own offensive wrestling.
Pick: Brahyan Zurcher by decision. Low confidence.
DANI BARBIR (7-0) vs. MANTAS KONDRATAVICIUS (7-1) – Middleweight
Very low confidence in this one and I even consulted BetSam for another opinion on this one. Barbir is definitely the more skilled fighter of the two but he is taking on a massive fighter with professional kick boxing experience. I am really concerned about Barbir's striking defense as he does leave his chin up in the air a bit and Mantas has the power to put his lights out early. But overall I think Barbir is a pretty technical striker for middleweight with good boxing technique and great grappling and submission ability.
Pick: Dani Barbir by submission. Low confidence.
JAVIER REYES (21-5) vs. JUSTICE TORRES (12-3) – Featherweight
The problem with this fight is that I don't think Reyes is very good, but Torres is taking this fight on one week notice. Another major issue is that Justice Torres lost recently to a nearly identical opponent to Reyes – Cameron Graves is also a very big BJJ guy at 145. The old me would pick Reyes because of that but I am currently leaning Torres. I think Reyes striking is pretty bad and his wrestling has been proven to not be good enough to take down decent LFA guys. Torres is a wrestler but he doesn't shoot take downs very often and usually wins his fights with his striking. Very low confidence here.
Pick: Justice Torres by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
