Currently on a good Contender Series streak so can hopefully keep it up. I will update this article later with a full write up.

JACK CONGDON (7-1) vs. JEAN-PAUL LEBOSNOYANI (8-2) – Welterweight

Jack Congdon fights quite similarly to Wonderboy. He has a karate base and is incredibly active with his kicks. He is constantly throwing push kicks, or low kicks to the legs or body. This makes him a very frustrating opponent to deal with as he also has a large 6'2″ frame at 170 lbs. However he has shown some weaknesses in the past. In his one loss he was taken down often by Jonathan Piersma, and in his most recent fight against a 9-6 journeyman, he gassed out in round 2 and that fight turned into a war. If an opponent can get past the kicks and box with him up close that is where he struggles, alongside the take down defense. Lebosnoyani is a former lightweight who I still think may be too small for this weight class. He also has a karate base but it isn't his style like it is for Congdon. He has a black belt in BJJ and has some great submission wins. Since moving up to welterweight we have seen him shoot much less take downs, mostly striking with his opponents. He is coming off a career best performance where he dominated a fighter with a similar build to Congdon. He was able to get a knock down early by dirty boxing up close, and eventually locked up a submission when his opponent took him down. He is a great grappler and I would say that is his best skill set but I don't know if I can trust him to shoot take downs here as it is a part of his game he has abandoned since moving to 170. However he has pretty decent cardio and we saw him put on a complete 3 round striking performance against big striker Victor Kuiks. The biggest concern for me is Congdon's poor cardio. Congdon might have a great first round but he hasn't proven that he can keep up his insane pace for longer than a round. I think we see Lebosnoyani take over in round 2 and eventually get a TKO or a submission late in the fight.

Pick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by submission. Medium confidence.

THEO HAIG (6-0) vs. CEZARY OLEKSIEJCZUK (15-3) – Middleweight

This is a tough fight to call as I think Haig is really good, and would get an easy win over other middleweights that are on this season. Unfortunately for him he has a tough test ahead of him. Haig is a very good grappler, and at middleweight he has an elite ability to take the back of his opponent. He can take the back standing, or work for the position once he has secured a take down. On the feet he isn't anything special and I worry a lot about his defense. His wrestling is decent but hasn't been tested against anyone high level yet. Cezary Oleksiejczuk is Michal's younger brother. He has spent most of his career fighting as a slim 6'3″ welterweight and has only moved up to middleweight for his recent two fights. He is a striker like Michal, and fights from a southpaw stance. His style is similar to Michal as he is quite boxing heavy, but he throws significantly more kicks, especially to the body. He is coming off some great quick KO wins including a round 1 KO over Tom Breese. He has fought multiple 5 round fights at 170 lbs as a multiple time defending champion for Polish promotion FEN. During that run he fought and beat many talented fighters. His take down defense is definitely going to be the main cause of concern in this fight. He was out wrestled badly against Alibeg Rasulov, and Szymon Dusza did find wrestling success in round 1. However against Mansur Abdurzakov and Aigun Akhmedov his take down defense held up, and even against Akhmedov he had a lot of his own offensive grappling moments. If he does get taken down he does work hard to get back up to his feet, but against Rasulov it was not enough. I think a move to 185 lbs will be good long term for him but as of right now he hasn't filled out that extra 15 lbs yet. There is a gap in the grappling between these two, but in my opinion the gap in striking is larger. I am going to pick Cezary to get a KO win here as Haig's striking defense isn't very good and Cezary is a pretty active striker.

Pick: Cezary Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO. Low-medium confidence.

MANDEL NALLO (13-3) vs. SAMUEL SILVA (13-4-1) – Lightweight

I initially was going to pick Silva as he is coming off some epic performances over great opponents, but after watching the tape I think Nallo is a tough match up for him. Nallo is a striker who had 8 fights in Bellator, going 4-3-1 NC. In his wins he got some incredible highlights, but in his losses he was looking good early on, except for the loss to Adam Piccolotti who found wrestling success against him in round 1. Nallo fights behind heavy leg and body kicks, which set up his hands. He is very fast with his counters and does have KO power. Silva is a big guy for lightweight but he is hittable. He doesn't check leg kicks at all and i think this could be a big factor here. He does shoot take downs on occasion, but not often. He fights best in a brawl where he can get his boxing combinations going in close range. Nallo fights from range well and I think eventually he can wear on Silva and get a KO. Nallo is very kill or be killed though, and has never seen the score cards. A very intriguing match up.

Pick: Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO. Low confidence.

EDUARDO CHAPOLIN (14-2) vs. AN TUAN HO (7-1) – Flyweight

Chapolin took this fight on short notice, and he actually fought for the LFA last weekend. He is a big flyweight with KO power. His striking defense isn't fantastic, he does get hit a lot but he has a great chin and can walk through punches to get off his own offense. He isn't a fast flyweight but he makes up for that by possessing some rare power for the weight class. Ho also has a lot of power, but his best skill is his speed. Ho has a variety of strikes in his arsenal and he can throw high volume very quickly. He can attempt take downs but I don't think we will see him find success there as Chapolin has fought wrestlers recently and his defense held up then. Ho will find most of his success by getting up close and landing combinations. He does have a big speed advantage and maybe that would be enough to beat the short notice Chapolin, but Chapolin has beaten higher levels of competition and is looking better every fight. I think this is too much too soon for Ho, and I would have liked to see him fight a few more times after his loss to Kavanagh on the show last year as he lost due to making the mistake of entering the pocket with his hands down. Chapolin is the LFA champion and has 16 pro fights. I think Chapolin will eventually overwhelm Ho and land a KO blow.

Pick: Eduardo Chapolin by KO/TKO. Low confidence.

TOMMY MCMILLEN (8-0) vs. DAVID MGOYAN (7-0) – Featherweight

One of the most interesting fights on the entire season. McMillen clearly has a lot of talent but a lot of him is unknown. He is a massive featherweight, and I genuinely believe he would be one of the biggest featherweights on the UFC roster if he was to win here. But all of his wins have come in round 1 over poor levels of competition. Depending on the source, he is 3 or 4 time state champion in wrestling and you can tell by watching his fights. He has great wrestling instincts and is very quick in the limited moments we can see him wrestle. He gets most of his wins by using his height to get front chokes. He trains with Tim Welch and Sean O'Malley and you can see some similarities in his striking, but it is clear that his striking is still developing as I don't think he is a very fast striker. But once again, it is hard ti tell given the quick wins over poor competition. David Mgoyan has taken this fight on a few weeks notice. Mgoyan is an incredibly talented fighter for only being 21 years old. He is a chain wrestler, and his wrestling is very effective. He wants to take his opponents down and from there he will advance position to land ground and pound or search for submissions. I saw him do some brutal calf stomps ina  couple of his fights which I hadn't seen before, but it looked painful. He has definitely fought better competition than McMillen, mainly because he holds a decision win over John De Jesus. De Jesus doesn't have a great record at 18-13 but a deep dive into it will show that he has fought many prospects throughout his career, and has been turning away prospects recently. In that fight Mgoyan was able to look great in round 1 but after that his ability to control De Jesus did decrease so perhaps there is a cardio concern given how much energy it takes to chain wrestle like he does. However, McMillen might not have great cardio either as we just don't know. Mgoyan's striking is dangerous enough as he does have good power in his hands and I think he will hold his own against McMillen. De Jesus was able to pressure him and pop him a few times with jabs though, so McMillen's length could be a problem. McMillen will also have a huge size advantage here. Mgoyan looks like he's a small featherweight, where I think McMillen would be an above average in size lightweight. McMillen's style of threatening front chokes could be great, or bad. If he pulls guillotine to the ground that would be a big mistake. But if he puts Mgoyan in a standing front choke position he could use that threat to land some big knees in the clinch. McMillen's take down defense against poor competition has looked great, but Mgoyan is a huge step up. But I do like the wrestling background of McMillen and it does look like he has great instincts when it comes to wrestling because of it. I'm not super confident in the pick but I think the fact that McMillen has the size and finishing threat, alongside Mgoyan getting hit from range and pressured on the feet, makes me lean his way.

Pick: Tommy McMillen by submission. Low confidence.