I had a great Contender Series Week 2 card, getting the 5-0 sweep. However I will say I am not feeling great confidence in this card. I think Week 3 overall is a very difficult card to pick given the fact that two of these fights are short notice, and in general a lot of these guys have a “stand and bang” style.

TRENT MILLER (8-2) vs. RYAN GANDRA (7-1) – Middleweight

This is a short notice fight as Trent Miller has stepped up on about a weeks notice. Miller is has a wrestling background but in a lot of his recent fights he has been striking a lot more. His striking is decent when he is moving forwards, but he struggled a lot when pressured. Buddy Wallace was able to use this against him. He throws a lot of volume which are mostly boxing combinations and low kicks. He has decent cardio as he has shown an ability to outlast his opponents and push hard in rounds 2 and 3. Ryan Gandra is a roll of the dice. I can't tell if this guy is any good. He is very patient, sometimes going a minute without a throwing a strike but when he does throw, he explodes with big combinations at full power. He reminds me of Brunno Ferreira in a way. He isn't very technical at all, and also has his own striking defense problems. He is always the one pressuring forward though and because of this I think he can find striking success against Miller. His take down defense is a bit unknown as he was actually taken down by Alessandro Gambulino, but he was able to reverse the position. If Miller wrestles that would be his best path to winning but even when he does wrestle it hasn't been super effective. I think this fight is close but Gandra seems like he was born for Contender Series with his full power stand and bang style. I know I said Gandra is a patient fighter, but I have a feeling that in this situation we are going to see him throw down often. I'm picking Gandra to win by pressuring Miller and landing big shots before getting a KO. He has one shot KO power and his win over Vladimir Calvo was brutal.

Pick: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO. Low confidence.

MARCIO BARBOSA (16-2) vs. DAMON WILSON (9-2) – Featherweight

Speaking of being born for the Contender Series… that is Marcio Barbosa. 16 wins, 15 first round finishes, 13 of those by KO. Barbosa is a wild man and I don't even know how you can describe his style. He is a boxer who comes forwards and throws combinations very often. He can be patient when he is dictating the pace but if someone wants to throw down with him he will welcome a war. He does throw so much and so often that he can gas out and his cardio is a legitimate issue that has lost him fights before. His take down defense is also pretty questionable and that will be tested here. Wilson is a wrestler but he has been striking a lot more recently. His take down offense isn't fantastic as I have seen his take downs defended by worse opponents than Barbosa. His striking is pretty decent but he finds most of his success up close with dirty boxing and knees – just in range of Barbosa's best shots. I think this is a good match up for Barbosa to get a first round knock out again but he does have a lot of flaws in his game. Nonetheless he is one of the most exciting fighters not signed to the UFC so I think win or lose he will provide a lot of entertainment in the promotion.

Pick: Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.

ALIK LORENZ (6-1) vs. ABDULRAKHMAN YAKHYAEV (6-0) – Light Heavyweight

I'll be honest – I don't rate Lorenz very highly. He is a wrestler but most of his wins do come by KO in the first round. I think this is mostly due to the level of competition than anything as his striking is not technical at all. He throws a lot of overhands but it looks like he is swimming in there. He is very hittable and we have seen him pieced up by very poor competition. His wrestling is decent but it's only something he leans on if he gets hurt on the feet. Yakhyaev is no striking specialist either. He has little to no striking ability at the start of his career but has recently evolved to throwing body kicks. Aside from that he isn't really throwing much and he has his own striking defense issues as he holds his hands by his waist. His strengths are in the wrestling and grappling. His wrestling is very good and he has little to no issue getting a take down. One critique could be that his control isn't amazing as opponents have been able to stand up before. He has a great ability to search for submissions though and his most recent wins are an example of this with a round 1 choke and guillotine. I am a little bit worried Lorenz somehow lands something big but Yakhyaev is the better fighter of the two for sure and I think he finds success with his grappling.

Pick: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev by submission. Medium-high confidence.

CRISTIAN PEREZ (13-1) vs. MANOEL SOUSA (12-1) – Lightweight

This is one of the best fights of the season and both guys should be in the UFC. Cristian Perez is a very aggressive, active fighter who can do a bit of everything. On the feet he is a high volume striker, mostly throwing combinations. On the ground he aggressively searches for submissions which can put him in some trouble but he scrambles well and has a wide arsenal of submission attacks. He can get a bit wild as he is so aggressive but more often than not this style has brought him victory. His one loss come in his third fight in a one night tournament in which he couldn't get the submissions early, and ended up losing a decision due to his opponent controlling him on top. Sousa is a former PFL/Bellator fighter who has some huge KO wins over Mauricio Ruffy and Tim Wilde. He pressures forwards a lot and uses that pressure to get boxing combinations going. He does hit very hard as he has slept great opponents with just one punch, but sometimes the perfect shots don't land. In that case he does have good cardio and can push in the third round if needed. His one loss is to Archie Colgan in a somewhat controversial decision. In that fight his take down defense did get exposed a bit but I think Colgan is really good, and definitely a better wrestler than Perez. He has shown that he can scramble out of tough grappling positions as his PFL Challenger Series opponent put him in some tough spots. It wasn't a great performance from him but it was good to see that he can deal with a tricky grappler. In this fight I am expecting Sousa to be able to pressure Perez on the feet and have him moving backwards. Sousa is a dangerous guy moving forwards as he bombs hooks. There is a chance one lands but we saw in his most recent fight Sousa isn't afraid to close and clinch if required. This is a great fight but I am going to pick Sousa as he seems to be the much more controlled fighter. Perez best chance is to win by finish (most likely submission), whereas I think Sousa can be the guy winning the minutes by using the pressure to deal damage and maybe even attempt a take down.

Pick: Manoel Sousa by decision. Low confidence.

DARION ABBEY (7-4) vs. DONTE JOHNSON (5-0) – Heavyweight

This is a fight that was put together on one week's notice as Pericic vs. Ellison got added to the UFC Perth card. Johnson is a light heavyweight and is 6'0″, while Abbey is a heavyweight who is 6'6. This fight is taking place at heavyweight. I wasn't expecting much from Abbey but I will admit his fights are very fun. He uses his length pretty well and he does have pretty good kick boxing. For a heavyweight, he throws a lot of volume. However his striking defense is awful. I have seen him dropped many times. He has a few KO losses but he was also dropped in his wins over Ezekiel Latu and Patrick Martin – and more than once against Martin. Most of the ways he's getting dropped are from punches up close such as hooks or uppercuts which is important to note here. He has been wrestling a lot more in his recent fights which is interesting, and could be a game plan to beat Johnson. Donte Johnson is a very wide guy for his height. He hasn't fought the best competition but he has very, very fast hands for 205 lbs. He closes the distance well and throws a lot of fast hooks. His take down defense has looked great so far as well. It is worth noting that at 5-0 he is yet to be tested against some tough competition. His fight against Ryan Parker was an interesting watch as Parker is a very tall guy like Abbey and he was able to keep Johnson at bay with straight shots, so maybe Abbey can do the same. However, Abbey's striking defense has not looked very good at all so I think Johnson can close the distance as the faster guy and land a KO.

Pick: Donte Johnson by KO/TKO. Medium confidence.