Aljo opened as a -200 favorite and is now a +125 underdog but almost 60% of the public is picking him to win. I absolutely understand why Aljo opened as a 2:1 favorite. He is the former world champion who has fantastic grappling and a world of experience. I also understand why Youssef flipped to the favorite. His grappling has been wildly impressive and he has technical striking. when this was announced I was originally on the Youssef side because of the offensive wresting but then I rewatched a couple of fights including Aljo vs Movsar. That fight was much closer than people remember and I would argue Aljo was the better wrestler in that fight, he just lost the scrambles and I think he will be the better wrestler here too. So then we have to determine who will be the better striker and I think that's Yousseff. I think he is a bit cleaner, a bit more technical and has a bit more power. This is an incredible Apex main event that likely sets up a title challenge for later this year or early next. I am going to lean Aljo. I think the wrestling and 5 round experience will be the edge here.
Aljamain Sterling
Aljaimain Sterling is a backpack grappler who will push for takedowns and stick to you like an extra layer of skin. Over time he developed his own striking style where he uses kicks really well to manage range. He lands almost 5 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs about 2 because he does such a good job with his footwork and range control. His offensive takedowns are solid as are his scramble skills. He is coming off the one sided beating over Brian Ortega.
Youssef Zalal
Youssef Zalal isn't known to be an exciting fighter, but that seems like a false classification because since he was cut from the UFC in 2023 he has returned to 5 wins with 4 stoppages in the UFC. He is a high IQ guy that can be a low volume distance striker with incredible defense, or an aggressive grappler with tricky submissions. He is only hit with 1.78 significant strikes per minute, which considering he has 7 decisions in the UFC is an incredible stat. He is coming off the insanely quick submission win over Josh Emmett where he didn't land a single strike.
