As we all know this is a rematch from the last event of 2025 but it’s not just a rematch, it is a rubber match. Petr Yan lost to Merab in 2023 and then beat him in 2025.

A lot of people remember their last fight as a one sided showcase where Merab got dog walked and while I agree it may have been the best performance of Petr’s career, i encourage you to watch it back because it wasn’t as insanely one sided as you may remember. I think the reason people remember that fight as being so one sided is because Petr defended an insane 27 takedowns which just made Merab look desperate. But if we are going to play the stats game, then we should also point out that Merab out landed Petr 196 to 159. I’m not making the case to say Merab won the first time, but I am making the case that it was closer than you remember and a few tweaks in camp can change the entire thing.

I am going to pick Merab here for a few reasons and most of them are ancillary. First, that was Merab’s 4th title fight in a calendar which absolutely affected his performance. Between long fight camps and long fights, he had no time to actually heal up or improve. It was fight, weight cut, fight for all of 2025. Second, i love that there has been a meaningful layoff here and at 10 months, it’s almost as long as the one he had right before his title run. i think the time away is very important for to heal and regroup. and finally, a hungry Merab who is fighting to earn the title will be a more determined Merab. He spent 2025 on side quests and social media. He has been quiet since that lost because he is locked in and hungry again.

So i’m picking Merab and I am using ancillary information to do so. We have seen them fight twice already, to me this isn’t about the technical ins and outs. To me this is about the other factors. Unfortunately for me, history is not on my side. in rubber matches the fighter who lost the first fight but won the second, goes on to win the 3rd 44% of the time, whereas the fighter who won the first and lost the second, only wins the 3rd 24% of the time.

Petr Yan

Petr Yan is the two time Bantamweight Chmampion of the World. He is a a phenomenal striker with fantastic takedown defense and surprisingly solid takedown offense as well. He plots forward with a Muay Thai style guard and then blasts away with power and accuracy. He averages almost 2 takedowns per fight with a solid 86% takedown defense. He is coming off the rematch win over Merab where he defended 27 takedowns.

Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili is a non stop chain wrestler with improved striking and insane cardio. He times his takedowns incredibly well and even if he doesn’t it doesn’t matter because there’s another shot right behind it. He averages an insane almost 6 takedowns per 15 minutes and only has 1 loss in 8 years. His gas tank is insane and his willingness to stick to a gameplan makes sure there are no surprises come fight night. He is coming off the title loss to Petr Yan.