Welcome to Showdown Faceoff, the article where we break down the showdown slate matchup at QB under a prop betting lens. The premise is simple, we run 10,000 simulations and the tool uses advanced data science to determine what the reasonable probability of an outcome is. Then we take that simulated probability and compare it to the betting line to find any potential edge.
This Sunday night we have the Dallas Cowboys’ QB, Dak Prescott, going head to head with the Green Bay Packer’s QB, Jordan Love. The betting lines are obtained from BetOnline the morning of gameday. Please be aware that these are just simulated projections, and are not guaranteed to be accurate. Don’t risk money you are not comfortable losing, especially when chasing props based on the opinions of a simulation.
PASSING YARDS
Dak Prescott Passing Yards – 279.5 yards
Over: -105
Under: -125
The Slate Simulator places the probability of this being under 280 yards at 73.9% which gives us an implied edge of around 18% based on the betting line.
Jordan Love Passing Yards – 274.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
I have no idea how much the Slate Simulator factors in that the Cowboys defense is made of paper, but it has the chances of being under this number for love at a whopping 97.5% – which gives us a massive 44% implied edge. That number seems so absurd, but the math is the math, something to keep an eye on though.
COMPLETIONS
Dak Prescott Completions – 23.5 completions
Over: -115
Under: -115
The simulations estimate the likelihood of 24 completions from Prescott to be around 47.3% which is under value compared to the betting line, but not providing enough cushion on the other end to make this one bettable.
Jordan Love Completions – 21.5 completions
Over: -140
Under: +110
Being under 22 competitions is showing at about 56.7% likelihood on the simulations. The betting line puts the probability of being under at 47.6% – so we are seeing about a 9% implied edge here on the under.
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Dak Prescott Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns
Over: -165
Under: +135
After running the Slate Simulator here, the under is very attractive at +135, which is a 42.6% implied probability. The simulations place the probability of being under the 2 TDs mark at 64.4% which leaves a nearly 22% implied edge.
Jordan Love Passing TD’s – 1.5 touchdowns
Over: -175
Under: +145
The Jordan Love under train continues, with the Slate Simulator expecting Love to be under the 2 passing TD’s mark about 64.7% of the time. The under betting line is showing us 40.8% implied probability. Leaves us with about a 24% implied edge on the under.
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Dak Prescott Passing Attempts – 36.5 attempts
Over: -105
Under: -125
The Slate Simulator is predicting this at exactly 36.5. Nothing worth even entertaining here, looks to be a coin flip while the bettor is losing on both sides due to vig.
Jordan Love Passing Attempts – 34.5 attempts
Over: -115
Under: -115
Slate Simulator projections put the probability of this number not being achieved at around 61.3% and when you balance that with the betting line, you are left with an 8% or so implied edge.
RUSHING YARDS
Dak Prescott Rushing Yards – 10.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
This is displaying weird on BetOnline, it seems like it is a bet for all Dallas Cowboys QB’s, almost like they know something we don’t, but nevertheless – this suggestion is based on Dak alone.
Simulations say Prescott has about a 60% chance for 11 rushing yards, and that makes the over the side of the bet to be on, but only by about 7% of implied edge.
Jordan Love Rushing Yards – 5.5 yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
Another wildly mispriced line this week in the rushing department, assuming of course the Slate Simulator can be believed. Simulations put Love going over this number at 83.5% and the betting line establishes about a 53% implied probability. That leaves us with our second largest implied probability of the evening, at roughly 30%.
BIGGEST PROBABILITY POINT EDGE
- Jordan Love – Passing Yards – 274.5 yards – Under – 44% implied edge
- Jordan Love – Rushing Yards – 5.5 yards – Over – 30% implied edge
- Jordan Love – Passing TDs – 1.5 tds – Under – 24% implied edge
- Dak Prescott – Passing TDs – 1.5 tds – Under – 22% implied edge
- Dak Prescott – Passing Yards – 279.5 yards – Under – 18% implied edge
