We head into week 5 with a major decision looming. The biggest decision of the week is the Arizona/Detroit game. The game total has pushed up to 56 for the over under and is almost 10 points higher then the next game. I don’t think you can completely fade the game because historically when there’s been a similar circumstance, a QB has finished t3 every time and the top WR have finished top 3 in dfs scoring. I think you have to be creative with how you play it, but there are players listed below was some pivot plays if you want to not game stack. There should be some bad weather in the east coast games, but nothing too crazy just some rain and 15mph winds, all in all it’s a good week to try and piece together the puzzle.
QUARTERBACKS
Jared Goff – $6600 – 17%
The lower owned QB to stack with from the highest game total, no rushing upside but they mix in throws around the goal line and he has 300+3 td upside.
Brock Purdy – $6500 – 2%
Seattle is good, San Francisco offense has the highest upside of any non Detroit game and you get him at no ownership. The commanders dropped 30 on the Seahawks, this offense is much better than them. If Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins play, I think burrow is better at the ownership he projects but they are up in the air right now so Purdy is the pivot if they both miss.
Jacoby Brissett – $5500 – 25%
Chalk QB of the week, in the highest game total with a team that should be trailing. He will probably push 40% in single entry and higher dollar, priced too low for his ceiling in this game but you have to be different when you stack him with Wilson/mcbride by using lower owned plays.
RUNNINGBACKS
Jahmyr Gibbs- $9800 – 32%
He is super expensive this week, and will be in almost every stack that has Brissett as the run back, but hard to not see him score a TD or two and get 120 all purpose yards. Tough to fade in cash, but in large field a pivot to lower owned CMC or JT is definitely in play.
Deandre Swift- $6200 – 7%
His main vulture is out, facing a team that has a terrible run defense with a HC who’s offensive scheming is best in the league. I don’t expect Roschon Johnson to eat into his touches as much as Kyle did, and has legit 100 yard multiple td upside at an affordable salary.
Quinshon Judkins – $5700 – 8%
The Jets have been shredded by opposing running backs, and he is coming off back to back games where he had 60 rush yards and 5 catches. Upside to go 4X is there this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Amon-Ra St Brown – $7900 – 22%
The second run back in AZ stacks, and primary stack with Goff he will carry huge ownership but the cardinals have been torched by WR1’s and the lions are coming off a bad game, I expect one of his 10+ reception and 100+ yard games. If you don’t want to stack this game move up to JSN at 8800 who has just as high a ceiling.
Nico Collins – $7500 – 6%
He started out the week protected much higher ownership, but everything is moving to the Detroit game and he will be underowned against a mediocre Tennessee defense that Zay flowers torched.
Michael Wilson – $6200 – 35%
Second highest owned skill position player of the week, but he is against a bad defense in a scheme where he gets 30% of the targets and they should be trailing. Super tough to fade unless you only want Trey in the game stack, but one of the highest upsides of the entire slate. Malik nabers is the direct pivot if you don’t want to play all Arizona chalk
TIGHT END
Trey McBride – $6700 – 36%
The AZ theme stays here, he is a 12+ target a game machine and the Lions are dead last in defensive metrics across the board. If you don’t stack the AZ game, bowers is an elite pivot at half the ownership, but this game has an almost 9 point higher than any other game.
George Kittle- $5200 – 13%
Elite pairing with Purdy, has scored 3 touchdowns the last 2 weeks and the game should have plenty of points. He is probably the most owned TE after McBride and Bowers.
Tucker Kraft – $4700 – 11%
This was between Tucker and TJ Hockenson, both are close in price but the Packers will have to pass a lot and he is a target monster. He will push for 8-10 targets in games they’re trailing and I think the bears beat them this week.
DST
HOU- $3400 – 8%
They should be 4000, Tennessee offense is not good, Houston defense finally isn’t playing a good offense and I think we see Will Anderson rack up sacks and wreck the OL consistently.
CLE – $2800 – 6%
Sneaky good at getting sacks and Denzel Ward is always a threat for a pick. Geno isn’t exactly super mobile and has shown he will take sacks, middle of the road salary option that can get you 6-8 points.
LAC – $2300 – 2%
Denver is missing Pat Bryant, hasn’t looked great, and even though Payton takes back over play calling they have the ability to get sacks and turnovers and they let you spend up elsewhere.
