We are heading into UFC Fight Night Allen vs Duncan at the Apex, and boy this card is..well we have some fights to watch at least. Hopefully it makes for an entertaining evening of violence. Besides the main event, it is tough to find someone you find yourself knowing and wanting them to win, but we are here to make money so who really gives a shit if we have a matchup like Julius Walker vs GM3 as probably the 2nd most prolific fight on the card.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Felipe Franco
He is going to put Brendson’s 32% takedown defense to work here and wrestle the shit out of him, which is what we want because then he can find some ground and pound to rack up stats. He averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes and this is a spot where he should dominate the wrestling, and find a finish.
Julius Walker
He just needs to not get taken down or be sloppy if he enters for a finish when GM3 is on his back. Meershaert is an old , beaten to hell vet who has fought 60 times compared to Walker’s 10. Walker is better on the feet, GM3 is chinny and has a terrible gas tank, so this is a get right spot for Walkers career and they are gifting him what should be a nice win here.
RJ Harris
This fight is a matchup of the titans in the heavyweight division, where RJ Harris should have the advantage on the feet and we saw his power last time out when he clipped Hines and got the KO finish. If he can score 90+ we are golden because this looks like it will be a lower scoring card.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Malcolm Wellmaker
I am nervous here, but he has such a good right hook that can put the lights out on anyone. If Otari just wrestles him down than he is probably F’d, but I am going to say you want one of these two regardless what side you are on, because Malcolm has the first round KO power and Tanzilovi has the takedown and control upside, but we are siding with the power puncher on this one.
Matheus Camilo
Herbert’s claim to fame is he got a knockdown on Ilia, but Camilo is going to wrestle his lanky ass down to the mat on repeat in this one and that is going to score extremely well for DK purposes. We also saw Herbert get clipped a couple times in his last fight he won against the DWCS canadian, and if Camilo catches him it is going to be lights out.
Brendan Allen
He just has more ways to win than CLD. He is a better wrestler, better at BJJ, will wrestle CLD into emptying the gas tank and try to find a finish here. CLD sits at 57% takedown defense, and what will happen here is he will try a spinning attack and when he misses Allen, Brendan will shoot immediately and drag CLD to the mat and control him and beat on him. This will happen over and over until CLD quits and Allen wins again and calls out DDP.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Ernesta Kareckaite
She is remarkably better on the feet than Gatto, and Gatto has poor wrestling accuracy which is her only path to victory because she will not win the striking here. Ernesta averages over 7 significant strikes per minute, which could get us a nice score on DK if it goes to decision, and if she finds a finish that’s a huge bonus for us.
Niko Price
This fight goes one of two ways, Leon gets a takedown and submits Price easily, or Niko punches Leon 3 times and on the third one Leon realizes he does not actually like to fight MMA and should go to BJJ matches and he drops and gets TKO’d. Leon sucks, the problem is Niko is not great but this could very well be his retirement fight where they line up an easy win if he can land a punch cleanly. Niko by TKO/KO incoming here.
Ketlen Souza
This fight is fairly even metrics wise, so I am going to side with Souza who won her last 2, even though it is not been against anywhere near the competition. I think we see a solid 29-28 split decision win here where she scores like 65 points and we think about rioting until we realise who is fighting and we just needed a cheapie to help fill out the roster.
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