This is the part of the breakdown where I tell you that Vegas doesn’t care about your wrestling. But something happened last time and they actually did. UFC Vegas 121 was one of the most favorable wrestling judging situations I have seen in a long time. If you think that energy carries over, then Melissa has to be the pick. But I really don’t think it does, i think part of the problem on that card was the strikers werent striking at the rate they needed to. That won’t be an issue for Ernesta. Even when people are shooting on her, she keeps her volume up. I do think this is a very close fight, maybe even a weird split, but Ernesta is the pick. I actually bet on her at +130 because despite it being close, I think she wins this matchup 8 of 10 times, she’s too long, too composed and the striking is too good.

Ernesta Kareckaite

Ernesta Kareckaite is a solid striker with great foot work, fast hands and solid head movement. She throws punches in combinations instead of one at a time and can dance her way to a win. She does not have a ton of power so typically needs to fight a perfect 15 minute fight. She is long and uses that length well for striking but not as well defending takedowns. Her takedown defense is solid, but she does find herself defending them often. She is coming off the fun decision loss loss to Regina Tarin where they exchanged takedowns and landed a combined 250 strikes

Melissa Gatto

Melissa Gatto is a grappler with very good BJJ. Unlike many others, her jiu jitsu is actually solid off her back, but it does give her a false sense of confidence and just creates situations where she is losing rounds. While she is primarily a grappler, she has technical striking and a bit of power. Her takedowns aren’t very good and are certainly not good enough to shoot from distance. She is coming off the close decision loss to Dione Barbosa where even a point deduction because of an illegal strike couldn’t tie it up.