We are heading into UFC Fight Night Vegas 121 which is headlined by Raul Rojas Jr and Raoni Barcelos. This is going to be a pretty typical fight night card where you look at it and say meh, but tune in and there are a bunch of surprisingly fun fights that have finishes. There are now 12 fights on the card which helps for DFS significantly, so let’s make some money this week.
For anyone who hasn’t read this article before, this series will be released every week on Thursday and will cover the slate by isolating the fighters that I like within the various salary groups. Plays are subject to change as new information comes out and you can unlock access to the entire suite of DraftKings DFS tools and information with Premium Membership!
$9,000+ PRICE POINT
Yazmin Jauregui
Vanessa is just outmatched here, giving up 5 inches in reach, 11 years in age, and double the output of strikes on the feet. This is going to be a striking match against someone who is younger, faster, longer and more powerful, so Yazmin is going to be the pick.
Rinya Nakamura
Rinya is going to shoot takedowns and Hiestand is going to let his 42% takedown defense be his down fall where Rinya gets 5-6 takedowns, mix in some ground and pound and look for a finish or two en route to riding out a bunch of control time and takedowns to a nice DK score.
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
Slightly bigger, both guys are high pressure bantamweights who push a very high pace, and Osmanli is better with striking and Uulu will be more wrestle only, and have to avoid getting chinned. This fight seems like it should be in your lineup either way, with the wrestling upside of Uulu, but Osmanli should be able to find a finish here.
$8,000 – $8,900 PRICE POINT
Montel Jackson
These guys are pretty evenly matched, with the same output on the feet, both like to wrestle, both are above average at takedowns and defending them, but Jackson has a 4 inch height and 6 inch reach advantage which should be a big factor here. Simon shoots a lot of takedowns, but is not very accurate with them, and if he is shooting from distance because of the reach than I think Jackson catches him on the way in.
Raul Rojas JR
I think most people are going to side with the dog here, so I am going to side with Rojas and his upside with the wrestling. Barcelos is a very solid wrestler himself, but the dude is old enough to be Chiwiwis dad and I think the younger, hungrier fighter gets it done here. Rojas is coming in from a fight where he landed 16 takedowns in 3 rounds, now I don’t think the does that to Raoni, but the upside for DK scoring is tremendous there. He has lost once and is averaging over 100 points in his wins which is optimal at his salary.
Mickey Gall
If Gall cannot beat Dumas he should lay the gloves down. Dumas stinks, gives up quickly when any submission starts setting in, and averages less than 2 significant strikes per minute on the feet. He will have the reach advantage here, and these guys are boh 1-3 or worse in their last 4 fights so it should be sloppy, but I lean Gall here.
Under $8,000 PRICE POINT
Norma Dumont
I think Perez is very overrated and would love to see Norma put a beating on her. This will ultimately be determined by Dumont’s ability to negate the takedowns and control from Perez, and keep it on the feet where Ailin is not as comfortable. Norma just had her 6 fight winning streak snapped, so now she will look to snap Perez’s 6 fight win streak. I prefer the Dog, but you think Norma’s takedown defense doesn’t hold up then we could see Perez with 6-10 takedowns like she has gotten in her previous fights en route to a boring decision with a ton of DK points for the wrestling.
Robert Bryzcek
This will come down to Bryzcek not being taken down and keeping it on the feet, where he would have a nice advantage on the feet against Rodolfo. Neither guy is great if we are being honest, but Vieira just lost to McConicco who has looked awful, and was KO’d by Bo Nickal before that so we will side with the dog to get it done here.
Christian Edwards
Bellato is a quitter, and while he is probably the better fighter right now, you have to use dogs for DFS and Edwards has the ability to use his reach to catch Rodolfo. I think Baukasukas is significantly better than Bellato, and if I am going to gamble on a cheapie I will take the heavier weightclass where 1 punch can change everything quickly.
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