Back in action with the Slate Snapshot article after an early week last event in China. This week is a bit early as well, as we are traveling to Paris, France. Starting at noon eastern still gives us plenty of time to write and post this however. The French cards are a staple of the UFC at this point, and surprisingly they seem to have a great lineup for us this time around, despite not having their two main stars, Gane and Fiorot, on the card.
At the top of the slate we have French former KSW lightweight champion making the move to the UFC, and matching up with Dan Hooker in his debut. This should be an exciting fight with plenty of action. In the co-main position we also have a fight that should delight with Fares Ziam fighting Alex Sola. Sprinkled throughout the remainder of the card are prospects and veterans that always put on a show, and a couple that typically don’t but we still love them – like Michael Venom Page.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Paris.
THE MAIN EVENT
Salahdine Paranasse ($9500 | -600 | 43%) vs. Dan Hooker ($6700 | +425 | 16%)
This being Paranasse’s debut, and it being against a pretty high level fighter makes this a tough main event to feel confident in for me personally. The world seems to feel differently however, with Paranasse ballooning to a -600 favorite. In theory this should be cut and dry, but as we know with MMA, nothing is ever that cut and dry.
For cash games the stack seems the safest to me. Some people love them (me) – while others hate the idea of stacking. More often when you do hear people suggesting the stack, it is usually because they expect the fight to go the distance and both fighters to score well. I tend to believe in using the stack as more of an insurance play with this one. I expect the winner to finish here, and the betting line agrees at -600 to end inside the distance. Coupled with the -255 under 3.5 rounds betting line, the expectation is for that finish to happen quickly. I just believe that Dan Hooker is a massively skilled first draw in the UFC for Paranasse.
Venturing into the tournament realm with this one and you will likely need to stay with Paranasse due to popularity and betting line for low risk contests. You probably should be on par with the field on him for larger tournaments as well due to the expected outcome being favorable for a big score from the winner. The opportunity however comes on the Hooker side, as he is only expecting to carry ownership in the high teens. Going over on him could prove fruitful if the test ends up being too much for Paranasse – and at $6700, a win nearly guarantees optimal for Dan Hooker.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Matthieu Duclos ($8200 | -120 | 30%) vs. Luis Felipe Dias ($8000 | +103 | 31%)
Here we have two young prospects, both early in their careers and both pretty dangerous. This fight is favored to end under 1.5 rounds, and is lined at about a pick ‘em. Neither fighter has a massive body of UFC work to judge them by, so we have to turn to the regional tape and limited UFC/DWCS fights to make our call.
I don’t have any really solid personal insight into who will win, or even should win this fight, but it is worth noting that Luis Felipe Dias opened a -300 favorite before moving to the underdog. That kind of movement represents a pretty clear message from the betting public. When it comes to DFS though, we generally plan for both outcomes, so my suggestions below will be just that.
This is one of those fights that I could see playing in cash just due to the salary point of each fighter, and if you do that, just pick the one you think will win – or the one you can afford based on what is left in your lineup. Playing this fight in cash is tough though because the loser likely scores next to nothing. So my personal preference would be to avoid this fight in cash contests, there is just too much uncertainty for me in the outcome.
In the tournament world however, load up on this one. They are both projected around 30%, and while you will need to pick the one you think wins – or the one you can afford – in single entry contests, going slightly over on both seems like it would play well for multiple entry contests. Maybe 40ish percent in each direction.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Daniil Donchenko ($9000 | -233 | 28%)
My personal feelings on this price range would have had Losene Keita in this spot, as I believe Soriano wins this fight. That being said, Donchenko is being projected by our tools to be one of the best plays on the slate, and the best play in this salary range, so I am deferring to the tools. Donchenko is a very violent fighter, so I do like that about this selection, but I have some concerns on just how good he really is, and Punahele is well-rounded and tough.
$8000-$8900 Range: Michael Aljarouj ($8400 | -120 | 23%)
I don’t have a great feel for this fight at all in either direction. Probably not a surprise considering they are both debut fighters. That being said, the rest of this range is already represented well with ownership, or appropriately faded like MVP and Felipe Lima due to scoring concerns. My personal pick would have been Fares Ziam, but Angelo has scared me off of him completely.
Under $8K Range: Modestas Bukauskas ($7400 | +215 | 15%)
This spot should be Dan Hooker if he wasn’t already covered in the main event section. He is going criminally underowned in my opinion, in favor of a fighter who doesn’t have much experience against UFC level competition, let alone experience against a fighter the level of Dan Hooker. Instead here we are, and while I don’t like Bukauskas as much, the things we have seen from Oumar Sy are concerning and there is plenty of meat left on the bone ownership wise here.
FINAL THOUGHT
Shout Out To The International Fans
Every year at least a couple times I get tired of dealing with these odd timed cards. This is one of those times. I then get pissy about it in a typical entitled American fashion before remembering that international fans do this weekly to a way worse degree. Shoutout to all of you die hards out there from other countries that ruin your sleep schedule each week, or occupy the heart of your day, with UFC fights. You are the real MVP’s.
Looking forward to an exciting day of fights in Paris. Good luck to you all with your bets and in your DFS contests!
