We believe in positivity at We Want Picks, so it’s important to note that after last week, we can only do better than the debacle that was UFC 330 when we head into Sacramento this evening. The card the UFC is providing us this week is fairly solid for a fight night, with plenty of great matchups across some of the heavier weight divisions.
Headlining the card is a middleweight matchup between two very exciting fighters, Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, and Gregory ‘RoboCop’ Rodrigues. We are getting heavyweights in the co-main with Vitor Petrino trying to continue to push his way up the divisional rankings against Serghei Spivac who is trying to stop his slide down them. Rounding out the card we will see some incredibly exciting prospects like Anthony Wint, as well as a few veteran matchups as well. It should be a fun week of fights.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Sacramento.
THE MAIN EVENT
Anthony Hernandez ($8600 | -211 | 57%) vs. Gregory Rodrigues ($7600 | +181 | 31%)
Last week the only thing I got right was the main event read. This week we have a much murkier main event, at least as far as my impressions on it go. We are getting Fluffy, Anthony Hernandez, who is pace, pressure, wrestling, and cardio. On the other side we are getting Robocop, Gregory Rodrigues, a powerful striker, and more than adequate grappler.
The reality of this one, it could easily go either way. Robocop is very live early on in this fight, maybe for the first couple rounds, to get a knockout or do well with his own wrestling or grappling. The unfortunate truth for Robocop however is that he slows down as his fights extend. So if he doesn’t manage to get Fluffy out of there early, Fluffy will have the opportunity to weaponize his cardio and take over this fight.
When it comes to cash you guys know I generally prefer to stack unless both fighters are going to score zero in a loss. We don’t have that here. Even if Fluffy gets clipped at some point in the first few rounds, he might put together several takedowns in that time period. If Robocop loses, he will likely make it deep into the fight, or even all the way to the scorecards. So in theory, you could stack this one for cash, but you probably shouldn’t due to all of the potential for high scores in the other fights. Hernandez is capable of such high fantasy scores that you are almost forced to play him in low risk contests, but if you believe in Rodrigues to get this done, by all means save the salary and go that way.
For tournaments, Hernandez is the chalkiest play on the slate, and you will probably want to stick there in your small field single entries, as the tournament increases in size you would find more separation being on the Robocop side and hoping for the best outcome there.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Jackson McVey ($8700 | -171 | 37%) vs. Wes Shultz ($7500 | +150 | 28%)
This fight is going to be absolutely wild. Jackson McVey is very wild in the cage, with much more passion than he seems to have skill. Wes Shultz has tons of grappling skills, but we have also seen him get clipped prior to be able to utilize them. The question everyone needs to ask themselves is, does McVey have the ability to clip Shultz like that, or will Shultz get to the point of being able to use superior grappling skills.
I don’t have a very strong personal opinion on this fight, but I am going to lean towards McVey due to the public betting line and the artificial intelligence on WWP picking him this week. I think this fight is a slopfest, and that usually does mean that the winner scores very well. So it does make sense to target this fight heavily in your lineups, but the betting line is portraying it to be mostly one way traffic, and I believe that this fight is a ton closer than the line suggests.
I wouldn’t remove this fighters from your cash pools, but I also wouldn’t be jumping at the chance to roll the dice on one of them for cash contests either. The loser likely doesn’t score well, and deciding the loser is like flipping a coin in my opinion. Wes might be the stronger low risk play due to the salary savings, but don’t be surprised if he gets packed up here.
When it comes to tournaments, being on par with the field on both fighters seems the safest to me. The score should be good here, but I am not so confident about it that I am going to suggest going over on both fighters. In smaller tournaments, or even large single entry contests, rolling with Shultz seems like the better play due to the salary savings, and McVey being sandwiched in between many potential big scorers.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Carli Judice ($9400 | -600 | 23%)
This salary range is slim pickings this week, with so many in the upper 9k price range and the lower 9k range being a bit sketchy to make matters worse. Carli Judice is where I landed in terms of a low owned fighter in the range that still has the ability to score big. To be perfectly honest, I wanted to put Mason Jones here, but his opponent has excellent takedown defense which might limit Jones’ score. Carli on the other hand is fighting Jeisla Chaves stepping in on short notice, and there could be a world where Carli’s striking puts an end to this early. At -600 and a pick’em on the fight ending inside the distance, it could be worth a roll of the dice.
$8000-$8900 Range: Shamil Gaziev ($8400 | -126 | 21%)
Here we have a fight that is -285 to end inside the distance, and in that fight, Shamil Gaziev is a slight favorite. Gaziev has been up and down since coming into the UFC, and definitely has some cardio issues, but for the most part he is a gamer who will show up and fight aggressively as long as his lungs allow him to. His opponent isn’t a true heavyweight, but a light heavyweight that got sick of cutting, so we could see some wrestling upside here as well from Shamil.
Under $8K Range: Marquel Mederos ($7200 | +289 | 14%)
I went back and forth between Mederos and Spivac in this spot. Ultimately I landed on Mederos because I think his fight with Mason Jones is going criminally underowned. Mederos having 82% takedown defense is what stopped me from using Jones in the 9k range, and it is part of what edged Mederos in this spot as well. If this fight can stay standing, Mederos has the skills and ability to outpace and pressure Jones if he can’t limit the wrestling coming back his way. At this price point, he just needs to win, high output is a bonus.
FINAL THOUGHT
Cards Like This Make Life Worth Living
This card has some outstanding matchups on it. The kind of matchups that should provide for a fantastic fight night experience. With 13 fights, and many of them expected to end inside the distance, you have a very good opportunity to not only enjoy the evening, but also make some decent cash while doing so.
Let’s hope for an entire card of knockouts, even from the women, and have an outstanding night. Good luck to you all with your bets and in your DFS contests!
